The political landscape in Maharashtra is on the verge of significant upheaval with the eagerly anticipated Supreme Court ruling on the disqualification plea of 16 MLAs of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena likely to come up on Thursday.
As the leaders of the Shinde faction display signs of nervous anticipation, their alliance partner Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains hopeful that the top court’s outcome will not have much impact on the current government. One of the five judges of the Constitution Bench, Justice Mukeshkumar Rasikbhai Shah, will retire on May 15.
Speaking to The Hindu, a senior BJP leader said that two plausible outcomes are widely speculated with one being the Court disqualifying the legislators in question, including Mr. Shinde, which would necessitate the former’s immediate resignation. The second possible scenario is the Supreme Court referring the matter back to the Speaker of the State Legislative Assembly to take appropriate action, he said.
“If the matter is referred to the Speaker, it is highly likely that the composition of the government and the Chief Minister’s position would remain unchanged. In case of disqualification, a new government will be formed with a new Chief Minister,” he said.
On June 30 last, Mr. Shinde was sworn in as the CM along with BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis as his deputy. During the trust vote held in the first week of July, the ruling Shinde-Fadnavis alliance secured the support of 164 out of 288 MLAs, comfortably surpassing the required majority of 145.
“Even if 16 MLAs are disqualified, we will have the required number to retain the power. The magic figure is 145 and we will be having the support of 148 MLAs,” a Shiv Sena leader from the Shinde camp said.
Even the Assembly Speaker, Rahul Narwekar, on Wednesday, said that the current government in Maharashtra holds a majority regardless of the [Supreme Court’s] outcome. He said that after he assumed the role of Speaker, the government successfully passed the floor test, indicating their majority.
“Irrespective of the verdict, the decision regarding the disqualification of MLAs falls under the jurisdiction of the Legislative Assembly Speaker,” he said highlighting the Speaker’s prerogative in this matter.
While addressing the party workers in Kolhapur last week, Mr. Fadnavis said Mi punha yein (I will return), which also sparked speculation about the verdict’s implications and his chances of heading the government again.
Meanwhile, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – Shiv Sena (UBT), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress combined – anxiously await the momentous decision, which according to them, will shape the future political landscape of Maharashtra.
“Our consistent stance from day one has been that this government is unconstitutional, and the manner in which the MVA government led by Uddhav Thackeray was overthrown was unethical,” former minister and Shiv Sena (UBT) MLC Anil Parab told The Hindu.
He expressed confidence in a favourable ruling and said it would not only validate their position but also provide a morale boost to not just Shiv Sanikis but supporters of the MVA alliance. “Our fight is for the welfare of Maharashtra and its people,” Mr. Parab said.
He said that then-Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari’s call for a trust vote on the floor of the House which led to the fall of Mr. Thackeray’s government was illegal. “If the Court says the letter from the Governor was illegal, then the entire process was illegal,” the Uddhav loyalist said.
The MVA leaders believe that the matter extends beyond the question of Mr. Shinde continuing as Chief Minister or the possibility of Mr. Fadnavis taking charge, as it carries the potential to influence the trajectory of their alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.
