WASHINGTON — Republicans are gearing up for a looming fight over immigration, a volatile issue the party believes can help unite its fractured base.
While most of the focus in Washington is currently on President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package, Republicans acknowledge that is an issue that may not be as ripe for them to seize on further into the 2022 midterm election cycle if the pandemic recedes as expected over the next year.
Republicans increasingly view Biden’s sweeping immigration proposals and growing problems at the U.S.-Mexico border as longer-lasting and thornier issues that could haunt Democrats down the road. And in the short term, Republicans see few other issues that can more effectively bring the party together at a time when they desperately need to heal their divisions over former President Donald Trump’s future role.
“There are certain issues within the Republican Party that get near unanimity,” said Tony Fabrizio, who was Trump’s top pollster during the 2020 campaign. “It doesn’t matter if you are the biggest Trumper or you’re not a Trumper, you likely still have the same opinions on immigration. The Republican Party is not the party of amnesty for illegal immigrants.”
Amid the debate over the COVID-19 relief bill, which polls have consistently shown is widely popular among most voters, Republicans have been upping the pressure on Democrats over the more divisive issue of immigration.
Trump focused on the issue in the opening portion of his speech last weekend at the Conservative Political Action Conference, his first major public appearance since leaving office. The former president claimed Biden has “triggered a massive flood of illegal immigration into our country, the likes of which we have never seen before” and criticized him for halting construction of the border wall.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who has become a frequent target of Trump’s ire, struck a similar message this week from the Senate floor. McConnell attacked Biden’s proposal, which would provide a path to citizenship for upward of 11 million undocumented immigrants over the course of eight years, as a “left-wing amnesty plan” and argued it would weaken border security.
The debate over the issue has been compounded by the recent influx of migrant children crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, a problem that is only expected to intensify heading into the summer months.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., sent a letter to Biden on Friday requesting a meeting to discuss the situation at the border, referring to it as a “crisis.” Trump released a statement shortly after saying the “border is now totally out of control thanks to the disastrous leadership of Joe Biden.”
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the Biden administration would welcome engagement from McCarthy or any lawmaker on a “constructive path forward.” As for Trump’s statement, Psaki responded: “We don’t take our advice or counsel from former President Trump on immigration policy, which was not only inhumane but ineffective.”
GOP operatives, who are casting Biden’s overall approach as outside of the mainstream, say they plan to make immigration a marquee issue as they attempt to take back control of the U.S. House and Senate next year. Galvanizing the base will be especially critical in a midterm campaign, where overall turnout is typically lower than during a presidential election.
“This will be a key issue in a lot of midterm races,” said Republican consultant Corry Bliss, a veteran of congressional campaigns. “Midterms are about turnout, and this is a very motivating issue when it comes to turnout.”
New polling has shown that immigration remains a far more animating issue for Republicans than Democrats. A survey from the GOP firm Echelon Insights found that illegal immigration was the top concern of Republican voters, with 59% saying they were “extremely concerned” by the issue. By comparison, no immigration issue ranked as a leading concern for Democratic voters.
Another poll from the nonpartisan company Populace produced similar results. Out of 55 policy issues, Republicans ranked having secure national borders and severely restricting immigration in their top three priorities, while Democrats placed those issues in the bottom half in terms of importance.
And Morning Consult’s latest polling revealed that five of Biden’s seven least popular executive actions dealt with immigration, driven in large part by Republican opposition.
In addition to mobilizing their base, Republicans see an opportunity to drive a wedge between Democrats and more moderate voters who are concerned with public safety.
“The reality is, as far left as the Democrats are going, they are going to a place that will not only rally conservative voters, it will rally independent voters to us as well,” said Chris Hartline, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Biden’s sweeping immigration proposal faces uncertain prospects in Congress, as at least 10 Republicans would need to join all Democrats for it to pass the Senate. In the meantime, House Democrats are planning to vote on separate immigration bills in the coming weeks.
That could put pressure on Republicans over some of the more popular planks of Biden’s plan, such as protections for undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States as children.
Ali Noorani, the executive director of the National Immigration Forum, said he fully expects Republicans to make immigration a top issue heading into the midterms. He said that in the past, Democrats have made the mistake of only speaking to their core supporters on immigration, rather than reaching out to Americans in the political middle.
But, he said, Democrats have an opening to make further inroads with key voter blocs, including suburban women, who were turned off by the GOP’s approach on the issue under Trump.
“Trump is going to try to define the midterm election on immigration,” Noorani said. “Are Democrats going to limit themselves to their base, or in essence fracture the Republican Party on this?”
While Trump’s immigration rhetoric initially propelled his 2016 presidential campaign and helped reshape the GOP base, immigration was rarely at the forefront of the 2020 election, which Trump lost to Biden by 7 million votes. Democrats point to a Gallup poll conducted last year showing that for the first time in the survey’s history, more Americans supported increasing immigration than decreasing it.
The GOP attempted to use migrant border crossings as a rallying cry in the final stretch of the 2018 midterm elections, only to see Democrats win a net of 40 seats on their way to taking control of the House.
Republicans are betting the political dynamic will shift now that Democrats are in power.
“Democrats are in charge of everything. They set the tone,” Bliss said. “On immigration, they are dangerously out of touch with the average voter. Not just the average Republican voter, but the average voter.”
