Scott Morrison largely had Queensland to thank for his “miracle” 2019 election, with the party now heading into the 2022 poll holding 23 of the 30 seats in the state, all but one with a margin of under 4%.
Many commentators credit the wave of blue to local objections to Bob Brown’s anti-Adani convoy, doubts over Labor’s climate change and tax policies and preference flows from minor parties, namely Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia party.
Labor’s post-2019 election review found the party needed to “find a way to reconnect with Queenslanders” if it is to win the next election and indeed, opposition leader Anthony Albanese has spent significant time in Queensland, including visiting a coalmine.
Though there is also a fight on the left – with the Greens looking competitive in several seats. It’s also not yet known what impact Queensland’s newest residents will have on the poll.
The state’s population grew by more than 57,800 in 12 months, mostly from Victoria and New South Wales.
Here’s what we know about the seats in play:
Lilley
Held by the Labor party with a margin of 0.7%.
The seat, in Brisbane’s inner north, has been held by Labor since 1998. Labor’s Anika Wells came within 1,229 votes of losing the seat at the 2019 election, with the party suffering a 5% swing against it after former treasurer Wayne Swan retired.
Labor, however, is confident it can improve its margin this time around. Wells, who was Australia’s youngest female MP at 34, is an active member of her community and has been critical of the federal government’s response to the state’s recent floods. She’s up against Liberal candidate Vivian Lobo, who was preselected in late March after the previous candidate withdrew.
Longman
Held by the Liberal National party with a margin of 3.3%.
The seat of Longman, which encompasses the area between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, is considered a must-hold seat by the Coalition and a must-win for Labor. It has changed hands four times since the 2007 election, most recently in 2019 when the LNP’s Terry Young defeated short-term Labor MP Susan Lamb. The 2022 Labor candidate is Rebecca Fanning, a health policy expert and Caboolture local.
Brisbane
Held by the LNP with a margin of 5%.
Brisbane was traditionally a Labor seat, until the LNP wrestled it back in 2010 and held it since. But if there’s a swing away from the government, the seat could end up being a three-way contest between the LNP’s Trevor Evans, who has held the seat since 2016, Labor’s Madonna Jarrett and Stephen Bates from the Greens. Support for the Greens in the seat has steadily grown – the party was just two percentage points behind passing Labor and reaching second place in 2019. The ABC’s chief election analyst Antony Green says unless Evans keeps his first-preference percentage in the high 40s, strong flows of preferences could deliver victory to whichever of Labor or the Greens has the higher first-preference vote.
Griffith
Held by the Labor party with a margin of 2.9%.
Another three-way contest is likely across the Brisbane River in the seat of Griffth, where Terri Butler will again face Greens candidate Max Chandler-Mather and the LNP’s Olivia Roberts. In 2019, Butler polled almost 10,000 fewer primary votes than her LNP opponent, but a 6.67% swing to the Greens saw her retain the once-safe seat, held by former prime minister Kevin Rudd between 1998 and 2014. The Greens also won the local state seat of South Brisbane in 2020.
Dawson
Held by the LNP with a margin of 14.7%.
The Mackay-based electorate of Dawson has been held comfortably since 2010 by retiring Liberal National MP George Christensen, who has made headlines during the pandemic for his conspiracy theory and anti-vaccination commentary. As Guardian Australia wrote last week, the seat explains how complex the state is to navigate politically.
The new LNP candidate is Andrew Willcox, his Labor opponent Shane Hamilton. One Nation, which managed to pick up some disaffected Labor voters, also performed strongly in the seat and helped boost the LNP’s margin. Worth watching to see if Labor voters will return to the party this time around.
