A NEW poll suggests voters are set to abandon the Scottish Tories in the local elections.
Douglas Ross’s party is on course for substantial losses, according to the major Britain Elects survey, with Scottish Labour set to make gains.
The SNP, meanwhile, are also forecast to endure slight losses. However, they could still make gains in the survey’s best-case scenario.
The Greens are on track to pick up seats, with the LibDems tipped to make smaller gains.
The Britain Elects poll provides best and worst case predictions, as well as a “central” figure.
Based on the central results, the Scottish Tories are set to lose 83 council seats. Even in the best-case scenario, they are forecast to lose 49. In the worst-case, it’s -106.
Labour are on course to gain 87, according to the central figure. That stretches to +101 in the best-case result, or +51 in worst-case.
The best-case scenario for the SNP is +3, while the worst-case is -25. The central prediction is the loss of 12 seats.
The Greens are on course to gain five seats under the central figure, which could stretch to +8 on a good election night. The worse-case scenario is no change on their current position.
Finally, the most likely scenario for the LibDems, according to the study, is losing 12 seats. If things go badly, they could lose nine. If the vote goes well, they could gain 15.
Britain Elects co-founder Ben Walker wrote in the New Statesman: “In Scotland, the SNP look set for a middling set of results. The central forecast expects them to lose 12 seats but it is possible they may shed as many as 25, or even, on a good night, make a net gain of three.
“These figures should be treated with caution. I have provided both a central forecast, and a range of reasonable probability. The ranges (best and worst) … help illustrate the level of uncertainty in local elections such as these.”
