THE SNP and Scottish Labour would be tied for vote share in a General Election, a new poll has suggested.
The survey from Redfield and Wilton Strategies, released on Wednesday evening, found that both parties would win 35% of the votes at a Westminster election.
This represents a fall of two percentage points for the SNP on the last poll by the firm, while Labour have gained one.
The Conservatives are facing dire straits, according to the polling, which put them on just 15% of the vote.
SNP and Labour are TIED in Scotland. Scotland Westminster VI (2-4 September): SNP 35% (-2) Labour 35% (+1) Conservative 15% (-2) Lib Dem 8% (+1) Green 4% (+2) Reform 2% (–) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 5-6 Augusthttps://t.co/LEw1GVdqBs pic.twitter.com/8Jf6iNJN51
— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) September 6, 2023
Pollster Mark McGeoghegan said different seat projections from the results predicted different outcomes. "Lots of urban and central belt marginals in these models, so a high degree of uncertainty," he wrote.
In August, polling expert Professor John Curtice said that “pretty much every seat in Scotland will be a marginal seat” at the next General Election.
At a Holyrood election, the Redfield and Wilton Strategies survey suggested things were equally close between Labour and the SNP. While Humza Yousaf’s governing party leads in the constituency ballot, Labour lead on the regional list.
The poll found that, in a Holyrood election, 39% of people would give the SNP their constituency vote. This compares to 30% for Labour, 16% for the Tories, and 8% for the LibDems. The Scottish Greens and Reform polled at 3%, and Alba at 1%.
In that same election but on the regional list, Labour would win 30% of the vote, the poll suggested, while the SNP won 25%. The Tories were on 15%, with the Greens just one point behind on 14%.
The LibDems polled at 9%, Alba at 4%, and Reform at 3%.
Labour leads the SNP by 5% in regional VI for a Scottish parliamentary election. Holyrood Regional List VI (2-4 September): Labour 30% (–) SNP 25% (-4) Conservatives 15% (-3) Green 14% (+5)Lib Dems 9% (-1) Alba 4% (+2) Reform UK 3% (–) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 5-6 August pic.twitter.com/uMrS4XLhIr
— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) September 6, 2023
The Redfield and Wilton Strategies survey further asked people how they would vote in a Scottish independence referendum, and found a five-point lead for No.
The poll suggested that, if a vote on the Union were held tomorrow, 44% of Scots would back independence while 49% would back remaining a part of the UK.
The Yes vote was down one point since the firm last asked the question, while the No vote had risen by the same.
Scots are however completely evenly split on whether to hold a second vote on independence in the next 12 months. A total of 42% said they would support a ballot, while 42% said they would oppose it.
The polling further found that First Minister Humza Yousaf has a net approval rating of -8, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is on -20 and Labour leader Keir Starmer in the positive on 5.
However, despite Yousaf’s negative ratings, 37% of Scots think he would do a better job as first minister than Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar, while 29% held the opposite view.
Compared to Scottish Tory group leader Douglas Ross, 42% of Scots said Yousaf would do a better job, while 27% backed the Conservative.
Redfield and Wilton Strategies polled 1100 Scots between September 2 and 4.
