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Daily Record
Daily Record
Politics
Chris McCall

Scottish independence support 'dropped to 2014 levels' in days before Nicola Sturgeon resignation

Support for Scottish independence has dropped to the level of the 2014 referendum result, a new poll has found.

A survey carried out in the days before Nicola Sturgeon announced her shock resignation found that 45.6 per cent of Scots would vote Yes, once don't knows were excluded from the total - a five point drop from November.

Just under half of Scots (48 per cent) are also now more likely to say things are going in the "wrong direction" for Scotland, up from 39 per cent three months ago.

But the poll, carried out by YouGov on behalf of the Scottish Election Study (SES), also found a growing generational gap among voters on the issue of independence.

Dr Fraser McMillan of the SES said: "While the outgoing First Minister’s claim that there is now a majority for Scottish independence in the electorate is contradicted by our data, it would be premature to write the movement off.

"Yes support rarely dips below the level achieved at the 2014 independence referendum, and, while it has dropped from recent highs, it still commands a majority among working- age Scots.

"Although Sturgeon has not achieved her life-long goal while First Minister, she has also not presided over any substantial decline in support for independence from the then-unprecedented 2014 result, shoring up backing among younger age groups."

Professor Ailsa Henderson, head of the SES, said “With independence support back at its 2014 levels, the prospect of a de facto referendum is a gamble made more complicated by the fact that Scottish voters perceive the next UK election as a way to remove the Conservatives from office.

"Yes supporters actually prioritise removing the current UK government over maximising indy support, but for Labour and Lib Dem voters, constitutional preferences trump partisan ones.

"While the wider political context in the UK is sometimes used as an argument for independence, in this instance it seems likely to complicate paths towards it."

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