On Tuesday afternoon, Nicola Sturgeon announced that a new referendum on Scottish independence will be held next year.
Following years of attempts to seek approval from the UK Government for a new vote, the Scottish Government has set out a date for when the public will once again be asked to choose whether the country should remain in the UK or become an independent nation.
The First Minister has written to Boris Johnson stating her willingness to negotiate the terms of a referendum. However, thus far, Johnson's government has expressed little interest in giving permission for a new vote.
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This calls many things into question, and may mean that the upcoming referendum will have some key differences from the one that was held back in 2014.
Here is a rundown of all of the important questions surrounding the new Scottish independence referendum, including whether it will be legally binding and what the outcome may be.
When will the Scottish referendum be held?
Sturgeon announced that a consultative referendum will take place on October 19, 2023.
She has stressed that any referendum will need to be fully lawful and constitutional.
Since the First Minister has indicated that she plans to push ahead with or without approval from the UK Government, the Supreme Court has been asked to rule whether Scotland can hold a non-binding referendum on independence.
What is a consultative referendum?
Since it will be consultative, if Scotland does vote in favour of leaving the UK, it will not become an independent country automatically.
Upon a 'Yes' victory, the country would need to see legislation passed at both Westminster and Holyrood before it could become independent.
What has been the UK Government's reaction?
According to a Downing Street spokesman, Boris Johnson has reiterated that it is currently "not the time to be talking about" a new independence referendum.
The spokesperson stated: “Our position remains unchanged that both ours and the Scottish Government’s priority should be working together with a relentless focus on the issues that we know matter to people up and down the country.
"That remains our priority, but a decision has been taken by the First Minister, so we will carefully study the details of the proposal, and the Supreme Court will now consider whether to accept the Scottish Government’s Lord Advocate referral."
When questioned whether Johnson would allow for negotiations regarding independence if Scotland voted for it, they stated: “We’re obviously not going to get into hypotheticals”.
Will the Scottish referendum be legally binding?
This is a question that will depend on what happens next; namely, whether the Scottish Government can be granted a Section 30 order from Westminster.
What is a Section 30 order?
A Section 30 order is required to give Scotland the legal authority to hold an independence referendum.
It refers to the section of the Scotland Act 1998 that can be used to increase or restrict — temporarily or permanently — the Scottish Parliament’s legislative authority. It does so by making changes to the list of powers normally reserved to Westminster.
These have been used a number of times since 1999, but the most prominent example is the 2014 independence referendum, when the UK Government temporarily devolved authority to allow it to happen.
Section 30 Orders can be initiated either by the Scottish or UK Governments but require approval by the House of Commons, House of Lords and the Scottish Parliament before becoming law.
Nicola Sturgeon has indicated that she would like to follow the same procedure as the last independence referendum, but has stated that she will not allow “Scottish democracy to be a prisoner” of the Boris Johnson's government.
Can a referendum be held without a Section 30 order?
The First Minister has stated that she will "forge a way forward, if necessary without a section 30 order", and has indicated that the general election will be a 'de facto referendum'. However, holding a referendum without a Section 30 order would call call into question its legitimacy.
The case would almost certainly end up at the Supreme Court, who would determine whether Scotland had the legal authority to vote for independence without permission from the UK Government — and they would likely rule on the side of Westminster.
What was the result of the last referendum?
The last referendum, held on September 18, 2014, saw Scotland reject the referendum by a vote of 2,001,926 (55.30%) to 1,617,989 (44.70%).
28 out of the 32 council areas in the country voted 'No', with only Glasgow, Dundee, West Dunbartonshire, and North Lanarkshire voting in favour of independence.
The council area that voted most in favour of independence was Dundee, with 57.3% of the electorate voting 'Yes', while Orkney rejected independence most strongly, with 67.2% voting against it.
What will be the likely outcome?
According to research published by YouGov earlier this month, support for independence is currently around 45 per cent, with approximately 55 per cent of Scots in favour of remaining in the UK.
This is almost exactly in line with the results of the 2014 referendum, suggesting that public opinion has not changed in the face of the Brexit vote and the scandals of Boris Johnson's government.
However, in the time since the past referendum, there have been times when support for independence has been higher than support for remaining in the UK — including the majority of 2020 — indicating that a new referendum may not pan out the same way.
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