SCOTS believe that becoming independent and joining the EU would be better for the country than remaining in the UK, a major new study has found.
Attitudes towards Brexit have become deeply entwined with opinions about Scotland’s place in the Union, according to analysis by the Scottish Centre for Social Research and polling experts at What Scotland Thinks.
In a development which piles pressure on those arguing to remain part of the Union, researchers found that Brexit has had an “adverse impact on support for remaining in the UK”.
They found that Scots believed remaining in the UK and outside of the EU would be worse for the country than becoming independent and joining the trading bloc.
The study showed just 18% of Scots thought that staying in the UK was good for trade, compared with 53% who thought an independent Scotland within the EU would be better.
And just 25% of people believed that remaining in the Union would be better for the economy compared with 46% who said the country would be better off out of the UK and in the EU.
Researchers also found that support for independence has “risen significantly” since both indyref and the 2016 Brexit vote.
They said that between 1999 and 2014, support for independence fluctuated between 23% and 35%. Since 2019, it has “consistently” sat at around 50%, the study found.
And people’s attitudes towards EU membership are now “deeply intertwined”, according to the study which analysed data from the Scottish Social Attitudes survey and a panel by the Scottish Centre for Social Research.
In 2014, people who were pro-EU were “no more or less likely” to back independence than Eurosceptics.
Now, those who would vote to be part of the EU are around three times more likely to support independence than those who voted for Brexit.
Professor John Curtice (below), senior research fellow at the Scottish Centre for Social Research, said: “Today’s analysis provides a unique record of how attitudes towards Scotland’s constitutional status have evolved over the past 25 years. And it is clear that the UK’s decision to leave the EU has had a significant impact on public attitudes towards independence.
“However, in practice, there has been little debate about Scotland’s constitutional status since the implementation of Brexit. We cannot be sure what view Scots would take about independence when they have heard more about the issues at stake.”
He added that it was “now clear” that the debate around EU membership versus membership of the UK would be “potentially crucial” in the event of a second referendum.
It comes after research published earlier this week found that Yes would easily win in a new referendum if it was certain Scotland would join the EU.
A YouGov survey, published on Tuesday, found that 56% of people would vote for independence if it meant EU membership, while just 32% would vote No.
But the same research also showed that support on both sides was practically unaltered since 2014, with No on 56% versus Yes on 44% in response to the question: "Scotland Scotland be an independent country?"
Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie said: “Scotland has suffered through a brutal Tory Brexit, which we didn't vote for, but have had to endure. It has meant increased prices, an increasingly toxic politics and curbs on our rights to live, travel and study across Europe.”
He said that Scottish independence was the “only way” the country could joining the EU to “extend a hand of friendship to the world”.
Harvie added: “With independence, we could do so much more to tackle the climate crisis and build a future we can be proud of.
“It is down to progressive pro-independence parties to show that alternative. That means a relentless focus on making people’s lives better and protecting our planet.”
