Read everything you need to know about the permutations surrounding the conclusion of Scotland’s UEFA Nations League campaign.
Scotland face a pivotal week with significant implications for both the Nations League and the 2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifying (WCQ) campaign.
Here’s a breakdown of the permutations, stakes, and complexities ahead.
Nations League Permutations
Pot 2 vs. Pot 3 – The Key Factor
Scotland’s placement in the WCQ draw hinges on the results of other teams in the UEFA Nations League. Here’s the scenario:
- Czech Republic OR Slovakia fail to win: Scotland secure Pot 2 for the WCQ draw.
- Czech Republic AND Slovakia both win: Scotland drop to Pot 3.
The WCQ draw is scheduled for Friday, December 13, at 11:00 AM. The campaign begins in either June 2025 (if Scotland is in a 5-team group) or September 2025 (if drawn in a 4-team group).
Why Pot 2 is Crucial
Pot 2 offers a better chance of avoiding Europe’s footballing powerhouses. If Scotland lands in a 5-team group, they’re likely to face England or Switzerland from Pot 1, but the remaining group opponents could be more manageable.
If relegated to Pot 3, Scotland is far more likely to find themselves in a 4-team group, with the increased risk of being drawn against a top-tier Pot 1 nation such as Spain, France, or Germany.
The Nations League Relegation Playoff
Scotland’s status in UEFA Nations League League A is also at stake. They face a relegation playoff in March, drawn against a runner-up from League B. The draw for this playoff takes place on Friday, November 22, at 11:00 AM.
The playoff will be a two-legged tie:
- Away leg: Thursday, March 20, 2025
- Home leg: Sunday, March 23, 2025
Winning this playoff ensures Scotland remain in League A, a valuable position for higher-quality fixtures and a potential advantage heading toward Euro 2028.
World Cup Qualifying – A Complex Puzzle
Groups of 4 vs. Groups of 5
Scotland’s WCQ group size depends on their Pot placement and the involvement of other teams in Nations League matches:
- Groups of 5: Preferable, as these groups avoid most Nations League quarterfinalists. This means a likely Pot 1 opponent of either England or Switzerland. Scotland’s campaign would begin in June 2025, leaving March for the relegation playoff.
- Groups of 4: More probable statistically but potentially more challenging. These groups can include Nations League finalists like France or Germany. Scotland’s campaign in this case would start in September 2025, with March and June reserved for Nations League commitments.
Potential Draw Anomalies
Due to UEFA’s scheduling:
- Nations League quarterfinalists must be in groups of 4, as their March and June schedules are occupied.
- Scotland, involved in a relegation playoff, cannot be placed in a group with other Nations League participants for the March fixtures.
- This narrows Scotland’s possible Pot 1 opponents in a 5-team group to England or Switzerland.
Strategic Implications – Nations League Deliberations
UEFA’s intertwined schedules create unusual incentives. Nations League quarterfinal winners must join 4-team WCQ groups, making 5-team groups potentially less daunting. This bizarre dynamic may lead some teams to deliberately lose their Nations League quarterfinals to secure an easier WCQ path.
For Scotland, the chaos highlights the importance of maintaining their League A status, securing Pot 2, and navigating what could be one of the most intricate WCQ campaigns in recent memory.
