Scotland’s economy is likely to contract in the second half of 2022, according to researchers at the University of Strathclyde's Fraser of Allander Institute.
The Deloitte-sponsored Economic Commentary forecasts growth of 3.6% this year, followed by a contraction of -0.6% in 2023, before returning to growth of 0.8% in 2024. This is a significant revision down from the institute’s previous set of forecasts in June.
The forecasts assume that the last two quarters of the year - and the first quarter of 2023 - will show contractions in the economy due to wider challenges, meaning that Scotland is likely to be entering into a recession; as defined by two quarters of negative growth.
