In the hotel rooms and boudoirs of Paris it has been a fraught week. An infestation of bedbugs in the French capital has even forced Eurostar to take extra precautionary measures amid numerous reports of nibbled calves and scratchy ankles. For thousands of travelling Irish supporters, nevertheless, the biggest threat of possible irritation is clad in blue and is itching to ruin their weekend.
Even if few are tipping Scotland to beat the world’s No 1-ranked side, unbeaten in this fixture since 2017, neither are they complete no-hopers. “Invincible? I wouldn’t go anywhere near that word,” cautioned James Lowe, the Irish wing, when asked if Ireland’s 16-Test winning streak made the outcome a relative formality. “Complacency is something that can’t creep into this group and it doesn’t.”
Quite so. But what if something unexpected were to creep up on Ireland and bite them in the backside? Let’s say Scotland, as they are well capable of doing, start fast and register a couple of first-half tries to lead at the interval. Then, out of nowhere, Finn Russell grabs a third-quarter intercept. Ireland, inevitably, hit back but Scotland remain in front by, say, three or four points entering the final 15 minutes. Suddenly, with an eight-point winning margin taking Scotland through, one more scrambled try could spell the end of Ireland’s World Cup adventure.
That, at least, is the alluring vision playing on repeat in Scottish imaginations. After the team’s last pre-game run-out, their big lock Grant Gilchrist was asked about the go-get-’em talk being used by almost every squad member this week. “I think there has to be,” replied Gilchrist, without missing a beat. “What the boys said is true. This is as big a moment as you’ll get in your career. It’s all or nothing for us. With everything on the line, it’s about bringing that emotion and not being scared of it. We’re going to put everything we’ve got into the game and we believe that’s going to be enough to win.”
Not many shades of grey there. According to the centre Huw Jones, his side’s sorry sequence of eight straight defeats against Ireland will also become an irrelevance if they can attain the rarefied level of performance he and his teammates still feel they can reach. All too often a slack five or 10 minutes has scuppered them in big matches; stay focused throughout and who knows? “Whenever we look back at those past games [against Ireland] there are so many opportunities we haven’t taken,” said Jones. “We can win, we’ve just got to go out and do it. We know it’s going to be tough but we’ve got to believe.”
It makes for a fascinating collision, not least because of the solitary omission on Ireland’s otherwise formidable CV. World Cup knockout games have yet to be their forte and they have never made it past the quarter-finals. To be crowned world champions later this month they have to overcome four successive Parisian examinations of their mettle at a time when the game’s top sides have seldom been more evenly matched.
It is in precisely this area of psychological resilience, though, that Ireland have advanced so impressively. The aforementioned Lowe is a particularly good example of how far Ireland have come. Once upon a time he was a talented player with defensive flaws, prone to the occasional ricket. Now he and his fellow wing, Mack Hansen, are representative of a new Ireland, for whom big occasions hold increasingly few fears.
Which is why the Scots, for all their attacking potential and bristling determination, go in as clear second favourites. There are plenty of underlying factors behind Ireland’s modern-day dominance, not least the well-coached talent churned out by the Irish schools system, but high on the list is the old truism that success breeds success. When Ireland take the field they expect to win. Scotland mostly do so in hope, which is not the same thing at all.
Ireland’s inner confidence is also based squarely on cold, hard evidence. How about this for a remarkable stat about Johnny Sexton? The Irish fly-half has not lost to a Scottish team, at Test level or domestically, for more than 12 years, a run of 24 games and counting. For that sequence to end, the Scots will have to take every available chance against an Irish defence that soaked up some fearsome pressure against South Africa a fortnight ago.
These days there are few more durable teams, if any, than Andy Farrell’s side, whose forwards consistently set the tone. If this tournament has underlined anything so far it is that Tadhg Beirne, Caelan Doris and Josh van der Flier are increasingly strong contenders for any World XV selection, as effective under pressure as they are on the front foot.
A recent example of the former came when they lost a clutch of first-half lineouts against the Springboks and yet still regrouped and solved the issue. “That’s what this group does,” said John Fogarty, the Irish scrum coach. “They’re able to adapt and adjust when the intensity climbs up. That’s going to be needed again across the pitch, on both sides of the ball.” Ireland, furthermore, also have the benefit of the redoubtable Peter O’Mahony, about to win his 100th Irish cap. The greying 34-year-old has not greatly enjoyed being dubbed the “haggard badger” by his teammates but ensuring the Munster captain remembers his day fondly is another sizeable motivation for all concerned.
Ladle on top the atmosphere generated by the 10s of thousands of expectant Irish supporters and Lowe, for one, cannot wait. “No one travels like the Irish. I’d say that’s fact. It’s something you can’t really describe or put into words.” The “Zombie” nation, either way, is on the march and extremely keen to sing the Cranberries’ hit once more.
With the weather also set fair, it really should be a magnificent occasion. Russell v Sexton, Lowe and Hansen v Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe. Even Ireland’s rock-solid defence will surely be tested at times. Then again, can anyone really see this being Sexton’s final fling? Fogarty believes any local bedbugs will soon meet their match at Ireland’s out-of-town hotel – “A few guys fumigate their beds naturally, especially the front five” – and, out on the field, Scotland’s finest may just find themselves swept away too.
