
There is a 62% chance El Niño will develop between June and August 2026, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with forecasters warning it could strengthen into a rare 'super El Niño' that pushes global temperatures to new highs.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch last week. The agency said the current La Niña - the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle - is expected to end within weeks. ENSO-neutral conditions are favoured through May to July at a 55% probability before the likely shift to El Niño.