There is a 62% chance El Niño will develop between June and August 2026, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with forecasters warning it could strengthen into a rare 'super El Niño' that pushes global temperatures to new highs.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch last week. The agency said the current La Niña - the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle - is expected to end within weeks. ENSO-neutral conditions are favoured through May to July at a 55% probability before the likely shift to El Niño.
NOAA reported that the equatorial subsurface temperature index has been climbing, with above-average temperatures strengthening at depth across the Pacific. Forecasters said weakening trade winds are expected to allow that subsurface heat to surface and spread - conditions that typically precede a significant El Niño.
El Niño is officially declared when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise at least 0.5C (0.9F) above the long-term average for three consecutive months.
Forecasters Put Super El Niño Odds at Up to 22%
What are the chances we could have a super El Niño this year? pic.twitter.com/FdVSop6bxH
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) March 13, 2026
A super El Niño is defined by Pacific sea surface temperatures reaching at least 2C (3.6F) above the long-term average for a sustained period. AccuWeather estimates there is a 15% chance of one forming by the end of the Atlantic hurricane season in November. If confirmed, it would be only the third super El Niño in the past 30 years.
'We feel El Niño will form this summer, early to mid is the expectation. Intensity is uncertain but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Niño this fall into winter,' said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead long-range forecaster.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center separately gives a one-in-three chance of a strong El Niño between October and December, though it describes the potential strength as 'very uncertain.'
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) modelling, cited by meteorologist Ben Noll, places the probability of at least a moderate El Niño by August at 98%, a strong event at 80%, and a super El Niño at 22%.
The previous two super El Niños occurred in 2015-16 and 1997-98. The 2023-24 El Niño came close but did not hold above the 2C threshold long enough to qualify.
El Niño Could Make 2027 the Warmest Year on Record
We can also look at how well this model predicted prior years (leaving out the year in question from the training data) based on data through March 10th. This will slightly overstate model skill, however, as future ENSO state is known with certainty in past years. pic.twitter.com/IaYvJv7aYe
— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) March 12, 2026
The last El Niño, which ran from mid-2023 to early 2024, contributed to record-breaking heat that made 2024 the warmest year on record. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the Breakthrough Institute said on social media platform X that the next El Niño is unlikely to push 2026 past that mark because the year started under La Niña conditions.
'This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though it's still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag between ENSO and surface temp,' Hausfather wrote.
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information said there is more than a 90% chance 2026 will rank among the five warmest years on record. The probability of it being the warmest stands at roughly 1%. Those odds could rise significantly in 2027, depending on how the event unfolds.
El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, which disrupts storm development. It tends to increase activity in the central and eastern Pacific instead. The ENSO cycle shifts between its warm and cool phases every two to seven years on average, with each phase lasting roughly nine to 12 months.
Forecasters have noted that El Niño predictions issued in spring carry more uncertainty than those later in the year. Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said spring forecasts are less accurate due to what is known as the boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-documented limitation in ENSO modelling.
The World Meteorological Organisation echoed that caution, noting that predictions at this time of year are 'typically less reliable.'
NOAA's next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2026.
