The next El Niño can be predicted more than two years in advance, according to a new study that looked at thousands of years of past climate data.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate cycle that is characterized by the cooling (La Niña) and warming (El Niño) of the sea surface above the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is one of the strongest and most predictable weather patterns affecting the global climate. Using various climate models, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been forecasting ENSO events about six to 12 months in advance. But the new study, published June 16 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, more than doubles that prediction window in some instances.
