San Jose State vs. Boise State: Why The Broncos Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Spartans and Broncos both hope to turn their season around in an early conference tilt. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire
Who will survive?
WEEK 6: San Jose State Spartans (1-4, 0-1 Mountain West) vs. Boise State Broncos (2-3, 1-0 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, October 7 — 6:00 PM MT/5:00 PM PT
WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, ID
WEATHER: Clear, low of 52 degrees
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBS Sports Network, by following this link.
RADIO: The San Jose State broadcast can be found in and around San Jose on 860 AM (KTRB). The Boise State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Bronco Radio Network, including flagship KBOI (670 AM and 93.1 FM) in Boise.
SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series, 14-1. In the last meeting on December 19, 2020, the Spartans defeated the Broncos, 34-20, in the Mountain West championship game.
LAST GAME: San Jose State lost at home to Air Force, 45-20, while Boise State lost on the road to Memphis, 35-32.
WEBSITES: SJSUSpartans.com, the official San Jose State athletics website | BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): San Jose State | Boise State
ODDS: Boise State -9.5
SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 11.2
FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 14.0
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Boise State 73.87% win probability (33.48-23.89)
Homecoming Game🐎
🆚 San Jose State
🗓️ Saturday, Oct. 7
⏰ 6 p.m. MT
📺 CBS Sports Network#Compete | #BleedBlue pic.twitter.com/c6jmcjtoXr— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) October 2, 2023
The Boise State Broncos head into a critical Week 6 matchup with the San Jose State Spartans looking to right more than one recent wrong.
Not only do the Broncos hope to put their disappointing performance in non-conference play behind them, they can keep pace with Mountain West-leading Air Force and improve to 2-0 in conference play with a win over SJSU. Owing to quirks in the schedule over the past few seasons, this is also the first time Boise State has clashed with the Spartans since the Mountain West championship game three years ago, so a measure of revenge is almost certainly on their minds, as well.
Here’s what Boise State can do to secure a win over the Spartans.
Three Keys to a Boise State Victory
1. Who’s Brett Rypien and who’s Montell Cozart?
One of the biggest nuggets to come out of Andy Avalos’s weekly press conference was the revelation that Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen will split time at quarterback against the Spartans. While he was correct that this is something the Broncos have done before, the circumstances in which they’ve utilized a pair of QBs with complementary skill sets have varied over the years: Montell Cozart was used situationally, but you can’t really pigeon-hole his usage; Jaylen Henderson took over down the stretch in 2019 for an injured Hank Bachmeier; and Green himself came on in relief of Bachmeier at times last year before Madsen began to do the same this fall.
A 50-50 split doesn’t seem likely, so who will be responsible for what? Green has struggled badly as a third-down passer, for instance, but he’s also run for six first downs in nine third-down rushing attempts. Madsen has the higher overall completion rate and yards per attempt, but Pro Football Focus notes that his big-time throw rate is nearly half of Green’s (2.9% to 4.9%) and his pressure-to-sack ratio is considerably higher (8.3% to 28.6%). Putting one or the other, let alone both, in a position to succeed will be a difficult problem for offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan to solve.
2. Get the ball to Eric McAlister.
Outside of Jeanty, no one else on the Broncos offense has proven to be as reliable as their six-foot-four sophomore pass catcher. He’s already seen 47 targets, fifth-most in the Mountain West, and dropped just one pass while leading the team with 25 catches and 436 receiving yards. More importantly, though, his nine receptions of 20-plus yards not only lead the conference but are as many as San Jose State’s top three receivers (Dominick Mazotti, Nick Nash, Charles Ross) combined.
That could be important because SJSU’s pass defense has often been gashed by the stronger offenses they have faced in 2023: USC and Oregon State each averaged nearly ten yards per attempt and Air Force was 2-for-2 on its rare attempts against the Spartans two weeks ago. It’s a dimension of the game that could get glossed over with the ongoing quarterback controversy, but McAlister’s ability to flip field position by himself could come in handy.
3. Don’t be shy about leaning on Ashton Jeanty and the rest of the ground game.
Everyone knows what Jeanty can accomplish at this point, but it wouldn’t be surprising if others like Jambres Dubar also had a field day against this Spartans defense. That’s because just about every metric, traditional or advanced, projects a potentially huge advantage for Boise State’s running backs and San Jose State’s front seven, which has seen its stuff rate drop from 20% in 2022 to 15% this fall and allowed 5.54 yards per carry against FBS competition this year, an average that ranks 125th in the country.
Prediction
The Broncos aren’t in an ideal spot, but they’re catching the Spartans at an ideal time to get right. It is likely to come down to whichever defense can make more stops, but it helps that Boise State has the best player on the field so, no matter the other ongoing concerns, that should be enough to get them to 2-0 in Mountain West play.
Boise State 38, San Jose State 27
