KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The single most impactful player in the AFC Championship Game plays quarterback for the Chiefs.
The biggest unknown in the AFC Championship Game is the quarterback for the Chiefs.
You can see why the Vegas oddsmakers have had a tough time with this one.
Patrick Mahomes will play through a high-ankle sprain, his true effectiveness to be determined. Even by his own admission. Mahomes said this week that he won’t really know his limitations until he gets into a game.
The betting line has mirrored the uncertainty.
The Chiefs are favored by 1 1/2 points against the Bengals on Sunday — which is in the neighborhood of where this opened, but it’s taken a unique route to find its way back near the starting line.
They opened as a 3-point favorite, before a rush of cash came to the Bengals’ side and the oddsmakers shifted the line to the Bengals as a 2 1/2-point favorite, a rare 5 1/2-point swing. After Mahomes was listed as a full participant in practices this week, it returned to the Chiefs as a favorite — though not quite as strongly.
So where does that leave us?
Similarly torn, though the recent streak already instilled that. A promising start to these picks has taken a turn for the worse over the last few weeks.
Ultimately, this pick settles on the numbers I dug into for a column earlier this week: Mahomes might need to be a pocket passer Sunday, but he’s been the best pocket passer in the NFL this season. He’s actually 50% better than any other quarterback inside the pocket by Sports Info Solutions’ expected points added metric.
The footwork inside the pocket is still likely to be a concern as well — it’s hard to imagine Mahomes taking many snaps under center, for instance — but if he can put enough weight on his back foot to feel confident, preserving his accuracy, I like the Chiefs’ chances. This is as much an Andy Reid pick as a Mahomes pick — there’s some faith here that Reid has had eight days to alter a game plan to suit a less mobile quarterback.
The Bengals offense remains a concern — a big one — but without three starting offensive linemen, maybe this is the time the Chiefs can actually win some one-on-one battles up front. The Bills didn’t a week ago, though a snow-covered field probably didn’t help their burst off the edge.
— The line: Chiefs -1.5
— The pick: Chiefs 27, Bengals 24
— Record against the spread this season:7-11
PLUS THREE
— 1. Isiah Pacheco, over 47.5 rushing yards
While it does seem this game better suits Jerick McKinnon than it does Pacheco, this is just a really low number that’s hard to skip. Pacheco has cleared this number in nine of his past 10 games.
— 2. Hayden Hurst, over 32.5 receiving yards
Hurst played only nine snaps in the December meeting with the Chiefs before departing with an injury, but he caught passes on two of the nine. The Bengals’ scheme illustrated they believe the Chiefs can be beaten with passes over the middle of the field. That would be good news for a tight end, and even more so if the Chiefs elect to (finally) shade some extra numbers to wideout Ja’Marr Chase. If you remove the game he left early against the Chiefs, Hurst has topped 33 yards in six of his past eight games.
— 3. Travis Kelce, under 7.5 catches
This one feels a bit like a trap to take the over, given that Kelce caught 14 passes in last weekend’s win against the Jaguars. But the Jags were the NFL’s worst team at defending tight ends, and the Bengals are the fifth best, using numbers from Football Outsiders.
All the talk from the locker room indicates that Kelce will be getting a ton of attention, even if that requires double teams.
If the Chiefs want to throw quicker passes because of Mahomes’ mobility, it might be harder for Kelce to pop open quickly if the Bengals are physical with him at the line of scrimmage.
Prop bet record this year: 27-25
