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Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
Sport
Sam Farmer

Sam Farmer's Week 4 NFL picks

The Los Angeles Times' NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week's matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week's record 7-9 (.438); season 27-20-1 (.575). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-7 (.563); season 27-21 (.563). Times Pacific.

Dolphins (3-0) at Bengals (1-2)

Thursday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Bengals by 3 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The biggest factor is if Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa plays. If he does, Miami wins. The Bengals' offensive line will have a tough time with Miami's defensive front.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Bengals 21

Vikings (2-1) vs. Saints (1-2)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Minnesota's offense needs to get back to where it was in the opener, and that means getting Justin Jefferson involved again. The Vikings can do that against a struggling New Orleans team.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Saints 23

Browns (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Browns by 1 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

Jacoby Brissett played well against Pittsburgh and should repeat that. The Falcons are fighting hard and can throw off opponents with the read-option stuff in their offense, but Browns are better.

Prediction: Browns 28, Falcons 20

Bills (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 3. O/U: 51.

The Bills are smarting after Sunday's loss and now they face a defense that has given up a lot of yards. Lamar Jackson looks phenomenal, so this should be an entertaining offensive display.

Prediction: Bills 31, Ravens 27

Chargers (1-2) at Texans (0-2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chargers by 5 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Chargers have lost left tackle Rashawn Slater, field-stretching receiver Jalen Guyton and linebacker Joey Bosa. Texans are hanging close in games, but Justin Herbert stops the slide for a week.

Prediction: Chargers 30, Texans 20

Jaguars (2-1) at Eagles (3-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 6 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Jalen Hurts is playing great, making the right reads and right throws, and running it when needed. Jacksonville is legit too. This could be the most interesting game of the week.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Jaguars 23

Jets (1-2) at Steelers (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Steelers by 3. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Steelers looked as if they finally got something going against Cleveland's defense, yet they still wound up losing by 12. The Jets are fighting on the sideline and looking like, well, the Jets.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Jets 20

Commanders (1-2) at Cowboys (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Cowboys by 3. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Commanders have been OK offensively, and Carson Wentz hasn't been that bad. Dallas has some defensive playmakers, though, starting with Micah Parsons. That defense sets the tone.

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Commanders 20

Seahawks (1-2) at Lions (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 4 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Injuries to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds are scary for the Lions but this team plays hard, and Seattle doesn't have much to offer. Lions aren't favored often but this time it's for good reason.

Prediction: Lions 27, Seahawks 21

Titans (1-2) at Colts (1-1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Both teams are coming off narrow victories over AFC West opponents, but the Colts over Chiefs was more impressive than Titans over Raiders. Indianapolis keeps it rolling at home.

Prediction: Colts 28, Titans 23

Bears (2-1) at Giants (2-1)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Giants by 3 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Unless there's a tie, one of these teams will walk away at 3-1 — and neither looks good. The Bears are averaging less than 100 yards passing per game. Go with the home team.

Prediction: Giants 24, Bears 20

Cardinals (1-2) at Panthers (1-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Panthers by 1 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Cardinals don't play well going cross-country and didn't play well at home last week either. They have to get their offense going. The Panthers don't have much, but they're able to hold serve at home.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Cardinals 23

Patriots (1-2) at Packers (2-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Packers by 10. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Patriots probably will have Brian Hoyer at quarterback with no weapons and a bad offensive line. Green Bay's defense is tough, and Aaron Rodgers is getting used to his new weapons.

Prediction: Packers 31, Patriots 13

Broncos (2-1) at Raiders (0-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Raiders by 2 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

Not only are the Raiders winless but also of the three teams they've played — Chargers, Cardinals and Titans — their only wins have come against Las Vegas. Raiders pass rush makes the difference.

Prediction: Raiders 24, Broncos 17

Chiefs (2-1) at Buccaneers (2-1)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 1 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Buccaneers are getting some receivers back, which helps Tom Brady. The Chiefs are missing threats at their outside receivers, which piles pressure on Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 24

Rams (2-1) at 49ers (1-2)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 1 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The 49ers have beaten the Rams three in a row. The Rams couldn't finish against Arizona, even though they won. Still, the 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo are struggling and they've lost Trent Williams.

Prediction: Rams 24, 49ers 20

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