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Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
Sport
Sam Farmer

Sam Farmer's Week 18 NFL picks

The Los Angeles Times' NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week's matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week's record 7-8 (.467); season 155-98-2 (.613). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 5-10 (.333); season 118-131-6 (.474). Times Pacific.

Chiefs (13-3) at Raiders (6-10)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 9 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

QB Jarrett Stidham looked pretty good for the Raiders last week so that's encouraging. But the seasoned Chiefs are in the mix for the No. 1 seed and they aren't going to have a letdown now.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 23

Titans (7-9) at Jaguars (8-8)

Saturday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Jaguars by 6 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

For the AFC South title. Jaguars have won five of six and are home. Titans have lost six in a row and have scored more than 16 only once in that stretch. QB Josh Dobbs isn't scaring Jacksonville.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Titans 17

Patriots (8-8) at Bills (12-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 7. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Bills — and the rest of the sports world — have been consumed by the tragic Damar Hamlin situation. But adversity has a way of galvanizing a team, especially an already strong one.

Prediction: Bills 28, Patriots 20

Texans (2-13-1) at Colts (4-11-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 2 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Most weeks, the Texans play teams close. That isn't an overly difficult task against Indianapolis because the Colts can't score. Houston finishes this forgettable season with a flourish.

Prediction: Texans 20, Colts 17

Browns (7-9) at Steelers (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Steelers by 2 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Browns run well and Deshaun Watson is starting to find his footing, so that will be a challenge. But the Steelers still have a flicker of hope of getting to the postseason, and that's enough.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 23

Ravens (10-6) at Bengals (11-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 7. O/U: 40 1/2.

Difficult to know how many players Zac Taylor and John Harbaugh decide to rest for this matchup, so go on roster strength. The Bengals are at home and are more solid across the board.

Prediction: Bengals 23, Ravens 20

Vikings (12-4) at Bears (3-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 7 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Since that historic second-half comeback against Indianapolis, the Vikings have been struggling. They want to be on a hot streak heading into the playoffs. Chicago is in play for the No. 1 draft pick.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 13

Jets (7-9) at Dolphins (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 2. O/U: 38 1/2.

The Jets are eliminated, but Miami isn't. But the Dolphins might have to go with the inexperienced Skylar Thompson at quarterback. Go with Miami based on that team's run-after-catch guys.

Prediction: Dolphins 21, Jets 18

Panthers (6-10) at Saints (7-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 3 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Carolina has some playmakers and the Panthers are running well, although the Saints can clamp down on the run. New Orleans is a little more banged up, and Carolina has a sliver of momentum.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Saints 21

Buccaneers (8-8) at Hawks (6-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 4 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Buccaneers are probably going to play Tom Brady and crew, but if they don't, Blaine Gabbert might have a big day. The Buccaneers have won the NFC South but 9-8 looks better than 8-9.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 17

Cardinals (4-12) at 49ers (12-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 14. O/U: 40 1/2.

Do the Cardinals have any offensive starters left? Regardless, the 49ers have won nine in a row, and rookie quarterback Brock Purdy is showing by the week that he's up to the task.

Prediction: 49ers 31, Cardinals 13

Rams (5-11) at Seahawks (8-8)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 6. O/U: 41 1/2.

Despite all of their injuries, the Rams are continuing to fight and tend to play well against Seattle. Still, the Seahawks have a postseason pulse and they're playing at home, never easy on the visitors.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 23

Cowboys (12-4) at Commanders (7-8-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Cowboys by 7. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Commanders are starting rookie quarterback Sam Howell in the finale. That might give them a glimpse of things to come, but it isn't going to work against this smothering Dallas defense.

Prediction: Cowboys 30, Commanders 17

Chargers (10-6) at Broncos (4-12)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 2 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

The Chargers need to lock up the No. 5 seed, although they should take their foot off the gas if Baltimore loses at Cincinnati. Regardless, they need to maintain momentum.

Prediction: Chargers 27, Broncos 20

Giants (9-6-1) at Eagles (13-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 14. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Eagles want the top seed and they're at home. No matter who is at quarterback, they have enough to win this matchup. The Giants are scary, though, and have the likely coach of the year.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Giants 24

Lions (8-8) at Packers (8-8)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Packers by 4 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

In this win-and-in scenario, it's tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Lions have played hard and have put up some big numbers this season, but have to go with Green Bay.

Prediction: Packers 24, Lions 20

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