In the NFL, there’s still something of a “chicken before the egg” theory when it comes to high-profile young quarterbacks.
When we talk about a quarterback’s hopeful success, we still mainly discuss this possibility in terms of them being incompetent or their organization letting them down. The grey area is minimal if seldom acknowledged in the first place. While there are exceptions, there is often a significant distinction between the two points, creating a polarizing conversation about what it takes to teach a quarterback to swim by themselves. In a recent context, Bryce Young’s benching with the Carolina Panthers comes to mind the most along these lines.
With the undeniable recent success of Sam Darnold on the Minnesota Vikings, Geno Smith on the Seattle Seahawks, and Baker Mayfield on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, we can no longer ignore what should be a well-accepted fact.
In the overwhelming majority of cases, if a highly drafted young quarterback fails on their first NFL team, the franchise deserves the most blame, not the passer.
SAMTEMBER!!
Sam Darnold has been named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for September.
📰: https://t.co/FBdoMjihgK pic.twitter.com/yEgwubDheg
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 3, 2024
Each of Darnold’s, Smith’s, and Mayfield’s individual stories as quarterbacks in the NFL is an indictment of the all-too-common development cycle in the league.
Smith was never a quote-unquote “generational” quarterback prospect on paper. A standout with West Virginia in the early 2010s, the Jets decided to make Smith their hopeful face of the future with only an early 2013 second-round pick for a reason.
As accurate and poised as Smith could be, he tended to lock onto his first reads. This is not a fatal flaw for young players, per se, as long as they get the breathing room to work things out in a gradual manner. At the tail end of the failing Rex Ryan era, the Jets weren’t interested in letting Smith come along as slowly as he needed. They threw him into the fire in an indiscriminate fashion.
While he still showed occasional flashes, Smith committed 37 turnovers (34 interceptions, three fumbles) in his first two seasons before an unceremonious benching.
Geno Smith leads the #Jets to a game-winning field goal in Atlanta on Monday Night Football.
LEARN MORE ABOUT JET X: https://t.co/d8R22lvNE9 pic.twitter.com/PlI5Sk2H1I
— Jets X-Factor (@jetsxfactor) July 23, 2020
At this inexact moment, Smith began working as a de facto understudy to more established NFL veterans like Eli Manning and Russell Wilson, hoping that, one day, he’d get another golden opportunity to show he belonged.
When the New York Jets selected Darnold at No. 3 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, the former USC product was described as a pro-ready player. He just needed time and support to work out some of his kinks. The Jets, as is their tradition, once again never had an abundance of time or patience. When it came to supporting Darnold, his rookie year supporting cast featured “No. 1” running back Bilal Powell (yikes), “No. 1” receiver Robbie Chosen (oof), and overmatched offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates, a younger coaching mind who had little experience as a lead assistant and had never been at the helm of a top-flight offense.
The results were predictable. Within three years, Darnold would no longer wear Jets green every Sunday and would have to work on his still-developing skills as a journeyman.
Another well-touted selection from 2018, the former No. 1 overall pick in Mayfield was supposed to be the Cleveland Browns’ savior. It seemed like he’d live up to these lofty expectations for a time. Down the stretch of the Browns’ 2018 campaign, Mayfield was one of pro football’s most efficient and effective quarterbacks, as he played them into borderline playoff contention and Cleveland’s best regular-season record in over a decade.
It was, quite literally, really all downhill from here.
When Mayfield struggled to begin 2019, the Browns’ unsurprising vacuum of leadership, led by then-coach Freddie Kitchens, let his issues snowball. In an obvious place of frustration, Mayfield was as up and down as they came. He’d enjoy a solid 2020 rebound campaign en route to the Browns’ first playoff win in over a quarter-century before Cleveland decided Mayfield wasn’t worth the trouble anymore after a meager 2021, and it cast him off without much thought. Their replacement choice? Deshaun Watson, who once faced more than 20 allegations of sexual misconduct in what the NFL would later characterize as “predatory behavior,” and who is now arguably the worst quarterback in Browns history.
For emphasis: in Browns’ history. Let that sink in.
Deshaun Watson's EPA per dropback in Weeks 1-3 is the worst for any Browns (!!) quarterback to start a season since at least 2000. pic.twitter.com/Y3lEuku4db
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) September 23, 2024
These days, moribund franchises like the Jets and Browns couldn’t look any more stupid or shortsighted when it comes to these respective quarterbacks. And they singlehandedly gave us a referendum on the conversation of young quarterback success.
Smith is a glorified football surgeon, the definition of poise and accuracy. He’s now qualified for two consecutive Pro Bowls as the Seattle Seahawks’ starter and, at age 33, is aging like a fine wine at the helm of one of the NFL’s sleeper championship contenders. It is a pleasure to watch him spray around deep completions to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf all over the field without blinking. Smith has Seattle’s full vote of confidence, and it shows.
Good thing he never wrote his haters back:
Geno Smith: "they wrote me off, I ain't write back though" pic.twitter.com/qyczbqn596
— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) September 13, 2022
After bouncing around himself, Darnold got the keys to drive the Minnesota Vikings’ car this year following J.J. McCarthy’s meniscus tear. Through four games, Darnold leads all qualified passers in passer rating and passing touchdowns as one of the league’s leading MVP candidates. That’s what life is like with great coaches like Kevin O’Connell, who give you an opportunity to stand on your own two feet and thrive.
As for Mayfield, well, he’s driving the Buccaneers’ bus as a veritable fiery sparkplug. One year after taking Tampa Bay to another NFC South division title, Mayfield has the Buccaneers humming along as an NFC superpower. I’d even venture to say that Mayfield has just … kind of picked up where he left off during his most successful Browns seasons. Except this time, the Buccaneers have no interest in tearing him down and replacing him because they have tangible logic and reason.
So, what does come first in the NFL’s chicken or egg debate?
Is it really that struggling young quarterbacks don’t belong at the highest level of football? Or is it more about brazen organizations that are ill-equipped to put their players in an optimal position to succeed?
After watching Darnold, Smith, and Mayfield light up the league with quality infrastructure around them in place, I think it’s safe to say that a quarterback bust is much more on franchises who have no earthly idea what they’re doing with the most important position in American sports.
Which is a good lesson for all of us on another front.
The next time we want to write off a seemingly young, inept quarterback, let’s let things play out. Let’s give them a chance to rewrite their story somewhere else. Chances are, their first few uneven chapters were defined by impatient football nitwits who never gave them a life raft in the first place.
