Antonio Guterres’s successor as United Nations secretary-general will be named in October. So far, two candidates from the African continent – Senegal’s Macky Sall and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu – have failed to win sufficient support.
The UN is entering the final stages of choosing a successor to Guterres, whose second five-year term ends on 31 December.
Under the UN Charter, the selection is led by the 15-member Security Council, which holds a series of confidential, non-binding "straw polls" to test support for candidates.
In these ballots, members vote to "encourage", "discourage" or express "no opinion" on each contender.
Later rounds use colour-coded ballots to reveal whether any of the five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) intend to exercise their veto.
The first straw poll took place on 30 July, with further rounds expected throughout August and potentially into September and October until a single candidate secures broad support without a permanent member veto.
The Security Council will then formally recommend one candidate to the 193-member General Assembly, which is expected to confirm the appointment before the end of the year – ahead of the new secretary-general taking office on 1 January, 2027.
Two African candidates
Two African candidates are running this year: Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu.
But Carlos Lopes, a law professor in South Africa and former executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, believes the continent’s chances of securing the prestigious post this year are low.
According to him, the first vote, in late July, only confirmed the weakness of Sall's candidacy.
"The official backing provided by President Bassirou Faye came late and failed to restore institutional coherence, if I may put it that way, because Senegal remains deeply divided over his legacy and his candidacy," Lopes told RFI this week.
Sall's candidacy was also poorly received by Senegalese citizens, given that he and his government were charged with corruption and embezzlement related to the management of Covid-19 funds and are accused of inciting electoral violence during the 2024 polls.
Otunnu of Uganda is already a respected figure in UN circles – as Uganda’s permanent representative, he was a key architect of the introduction of what is now known as the "straw poll" (the indicative vote).
"This historic contribution is not enough, however, to offset his late entry into the race," said Lopes. "His political track record is rather difficult to decipher, marked by zig zags and a strained relationship with the current president. Consequently, his diplomatic prestige belongs more to history than to his current political reality."
Neither candidate has received the support of the African Union.
Regional rotation
Lopes believes the principle of regional rotation – an unwritten custom that alternates leadership posts among the UN's five geographic regional blocs to ensure global representation – also weakens any African bid this year, with this set-up favouring, at least informally, candidates from Latin America and the Caribbean this year.
"I believe Africa risks appearing to challenge a principle from which it has itself greatly benefited in the past," said Lopes. "The two [previous] African secretaries-general, Boutros Boutros-Ghali and Kofi Annan, were able to count on broad support from other regions of the Global South precisely because they respected this rotation logic."
Undermining this principle could also set a precedent that might ultimately work to Africa's disadvantage, he added.
"And I think that is precisely what is already undermining both candidacies from the outset."
First female secretary-general
Many experts also hope to see a woman secure the post of secretary-general for the first time, with three female candidates in the running.
Rebeca Grynspan is the current head of UN Trade and Development and former vice-president of Costa Rica. She came first in the initial straw poll with 10 "encourage" votes and is widely seen as the frontrunner.
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana's UN ambassador and former foreign minister, finished second in the first poll with nine"'encourage" votes.
The third is Michelle Bachelet, the former Chilean president and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
"The two best-placed candidates following this first vote are Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett, I believe both have had truly remarkable campaigns. So, I think there is a real chance that one of them could ultimately secure the position," said Lopes.
This article was partially adapted from an interview by RFI's French service.
