Sir Sadiq Khan would win a fourth term as Mayor of London despite a surge in support for the Greens, according to a new poll.
The Savanta survey for the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), showed Labour significantly ahead of all other parties in the mayoral race.
Sir Sadiq’s party is on 33%, with the Conservatives 18%, Reform UK 18%, Green Party 17%, Liberal Democrats nine per cent, and other candidates six per cent.
“This would amount to a Labour win after second preferences are counted,” said Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at QMUL.
The Labour candidate would get 40% of the vote in Inner London, more than double any other contender, and 29% in Outer London, also ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform and the Tories, both on 19%.
Dr Kelly added: “Much will depend on who the mayoral candidates are.
“Of the major parties, only Reform has named a candidate so far.
“But it is clear that Laila Cunningham’s campaign has not yet broken through as Reform’s support is down 1% since our previous poll.”
In February, Sir Sadiq gave his strongest signal yet that he may seek a fourth term in City Hall at the 2028 contest.
Ruling out a return to the Commons, he said of the mayoral contest: “Once the election begins, we know who the candidates are, I will have a strategy to deal with both Count Binface and Reform.”
More recently, he explained that he would make his decision next year on whether to seek re-election.
Speaking at the annual State of London debate last month, he said: “I will let you know as soon as I’ve decided – at the same time I make it in every cycle, which is probably year three.”
If he decides not to stand, contenders to be Labour’s candidate could include Brent East MP Dawn Butler, Justice Secretary and Tottenham MP David Lammy, as well as Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan.
Former London Assembly member Sir James Cleverly is the early frontrunner to be the Tory candidate to challenge for the mayoralty.
As former Home Secretary, ex-Foreign Secretary, having run his own business and served in the army, he appears to tick many of the boxes for the type of candidate that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is seeking.
Zack Polanski’s Green Party could win 13 seats in London at the next general election, according to the poll, with Labour down from 59 to just 28, as Nigel Farage’s Reform picks up 11.
If there was a London Assembly election tomorrow, Labour would come first with 31%, the survey found.
The Greens, after their May local election success in the capital, would jump into second place on 20%, with the Conservatives on 18%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 10% and others on four per cent.
Analysis by Dr Kelly using his DevolvedElections.co.uk projection model suggests this would lead to Labour remaining on 11 seats, the Greens on up to five, Conservatives on four, Reform three and Lib Dems two.
“The Greens finishing second would be an enormous achievement for Polanski's party,” he said.
“All their seats are expected to come on the list.”
Dr Kelly added: “Reform are close in Bexley & Bromley, and Havering & Redbridge.
“If they pulled either one off it would mark the first time a party other than Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems has won a constituency seat.”
Fourteen constituency members are elected to the assembly, and 11 London-wide list members.
* Savanta interviewed 1,038 adult Londoners online between 30th June and July 8th. Data are weighted.
