Only “hundreds” of refugees will be deported to Rwanda each year, the Deputy Prime Minister suggested today - despite Boris Johnson claiming “tens of thousands” could go over the coming years.
Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab tried to "manage expectations" about the plan to give “illegally”-arriving migrants one-way ticket to the east African nation.
He added: "We don’t know yet because of all the behavioural variables involved quite how effective it will be."
The UK has signed a five-year deal last month for Rwanda to take Britain’s unwanted asylum seekers.
The scheme will focus on people who arrive by “illegal” means such as small boats in the Channel or refrigerated lorries.
But the Home Secretary issued a rare last-minute ‘ministerial direction’ to force the scheme to go ahead - after her Permanent Secretary warned he could not allow it without her written order.
Matthew Rycroft said while he was satisfied “it is regular, proper and feasible for this policy to proceed”, he could not guarantee it would sufficiently deter people from making dangerous Channel crossings to provide value for money.
When it was announced last month, Boris Johnson said tens of thousands of people could be flown to Rwanda under the deal in the years ahead.
However, the Prime Minister was careful not to say tens of thousands of refugees would definitely go. Instead he said the country had the “capacity” to take them.
And Home Office officials later said they expected the numbers to be in the thousands - but only over the coming years put together.
Asked when the first deportation flights to Rwanda will take place, Mr Raab told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that it would happen "as soon as possible".
"I think that we'll have to wait and see how operationally it works in practice," he said.
"I think I'd be careful about managing expectations.
"It is not going to deal with the whole problem."
Asked if hundreds or thousands of people would be removed every year, Mr Raab added: "I would have thought it was more likely to be in the hundreds."
The Home Office previously disputed suggestions that modelling by its own officials indicated that only 300 people a year could be sent to Rwanda.
Asked about the report in The Times, the department said it did not recognise the figure and there was no cap on the number of people removed under the arrangement.
Since the start of this year, 8,803 people have reached the UK after navigating busy shipping lanes from France in small boats, according to analysis of Government data by the PA news agency.
There were 106 people who arrived in three boats on Thursday, with more crossings thought to be under way on Friday.
Campaigners who have lodged legal challenges against the Rwanda policy said they received notice that first flights will now not take place until at least June 6.
Last weekend the Prime Minister said 50 asylum seekers had been told they were due on a flight within a fortnight, which would be the end of May, but he anticipated opposition to the move.
