Russian forces are believed to have suffered some of the country’s biggest casualty rates so far this year as a result of continued “heavy but inconclusive” fighting around the Donetsk oblast town of Avdiivka.
According to the UK Ministry of Defence’s intelligence update on Saturday morning, Russia has probably committed elements of up to eight brigades to the sector where it initiated a “major offensive effort” in mid-October.
Ukraine’s armed forces claimed on Saturday that Russia had lost 298,420 troops since the beginning of its full-scale invasion last year, including 740 casualties in the last day. These figures have not been independently verified.
The intelligence update states that the nature of the operation in Avdiivka indicates that Russia’s “core military-political challenge remains the same as it has throughout most of the war”.
“Political leaders demand more territory to be seized but the military cannot generate the effective operational level offensive action.”
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, claimed on Friday that Russian forces have lost at least a brigade’s worth of troops attempting to advance on Avdiivka.
Zelenskiy has continued to stress the seriousness of the situation in Ukraine, which was first invaded by Russia in February last year.
During a surprise visit to Nato’s Brussels headquarters after the Hamas attack on Israel earlier this month, he expressed fears that the escalating conflict could threaten military support for Ukraine.
Beyond these resourcing concerns, it is the view of Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister that what is now happening in the Gaza Strip has been influenced by Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Mykola Tochytskyi said: “We warned that turning a blind eye to [Russian] violation of international peace and security would fuel conflicts in the world.”
He accused Russia of having a history of “provoking” and “stoking” hybrid conflicts across Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has criticised Israel’s Gaza bombardment, claiming during an interview with the Belarusian state news agency Belta that it breaches international law.
“While we condemn terrorism, we categorically disagree that you can respond to terrorism by violating the norms of international humanitarian law,” he said in comments released on Saturday.
Speaking during the first session of the Malta summit which began on Saturday, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, Andriy Yermak, said that Russia “will have to give in to the international community” and agree to Ukraine’s peace settlement demands.
• This article was amended on 29 October 2023. An earlier version mistakenly referred to Mykola Tochytskyi as “she”.
