A summary of today’s developments
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces carried out a “massive strike” on critically important energy facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex on Friday. Ukraine’s energy minister, German Galushchenko, has said Russia hit power facilities in six regions with missiles and drones, causing blackouts across most of the country. Ukraine’s state-run energy operator Ukrenergo has said the situation in the country’s energy system is challenging but controlled.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said it could take two years for Russia to fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, two regions whose capture Moscow has stated as a key goal of the war. “If we have to get to the Dnipro, then it will take about three years,” Prigozhin added, referring to a larger area that would extend to the vast Dnipro River that runs roughly north to south, bisecting Ukraine.
Russian forces must capture the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut to proceed with their campaign, Prigozhin said in the same interview, while acknowledging that Ukrainian troops were mounting fierce resistance. Russian forces have been attempting to encircle and capture Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Donbas region, which has become the focal point of Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion and of Moscow’s drive to regain battlefield momentum.
Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine, but without preconditions, state media have reported the Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergey Vershinin, as saying. In an interview with state-run Zvezda television, Vershinin said it was not Ukraine, but the US and the EU that should make the decision on talks with Russia. Ukraine’s presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, who headed the country’s negotiating team in the early phases of the conflict, said “talks are out of the question”.
Half of Russia’s main battle tanks in Ukraine have probably been captured or destroyed in combat, a senior US defence official has said. Celeste Wallander, the assistant defence secretary for international security affairs, did not provide an exact figure for the number of tanks lost since Russia invaded last February but her estimate comes as Ukraine is set to receive an influx of heavy western tanks from its supporters.
The “increasingly direct rivalry between the Russian ministry of defence and Wagner” is likely a “key factor” in the alleged termination of the Russian mercenary group’s prisoner recruitment drive, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said. Wagner founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Thursday that the group had “completely stopped” recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine. The MoD intelligence update states that the regular Russian military had “likely now also deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under ‘partial mobilisation”.
Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, has said he and Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the Turkish embassy in Kyiv to commemorate the victims of Monday’s earthquake in Turkey and Syria. Ukraine has sent 88 rescue experts to help search flattened buildings for survivors, erect tents and offer first aid. The team includes specialists in search and rescue operations, doctors, dog handlers and firefighters.
Russia’s sports minister, Oleg Matytsin, has said Ukraine’s call to ban Russian athletes from the 2024 Paris Olympics was “unacceptable”, state media are reporting. He described the call as “a blatant desire to destroy the unity of international sport and the international Olympic movement”. His remarks came as a group of 35 countries will demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from the 2024 Olympics, according to the Lithuanian sports minister, Jurgita Šiugždinienė.
A proposed resolution for adoption by the UN’s general assembly has underlined the need for peace ensuring Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity”. The draft resolution from supporters of Ukraine, on the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is broader and less detailed than Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s 10-point peace plan he announced in November.
Zemfira, one of Russia’s most popular singers, has been placed on a list of “foreign agents” on grounds that she supported Ukraine and criticised Russia’s “special military operation” in that country, according to the Russian justice ministry. The ministry has added several other people to its “foreign agents” list, including opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov, political analyst Abbas Gallyamov, and activists Aleksandra Kazantseva and Tatyana Nazambaeva for “LGBT propaganda”.
Immigration authorities in Argentina are cracking down on Russian women who since the invasion of Ukraine have started travelling to Buenos Aires to give birth in order to gain Argentinian citizenship for their children. The director of Argentina’s immigration office, Florencia Carignano, said on Friday that a judicial investigation has been launched into what she described as a lucrative business that promises Argentinian passports for the Russian parents.
Here is the full story on the boss of the Russian mercenary Wagner group saying it could take Russia two years to seize the entire east of Ukraine which suggests at least some key figures in Moscow are gearing up for a protracted conflict, writes Luke Harding and Dan Sabbagh.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has emerged from the shadows to become a high-profile figure since the start of the war, suggested Russia’s focus was now on capturing the rest of the Donbas region it has not occupied since the start of the war nearly a year ago.
Doing so would take “about one and half to two more years of work”, the ally of president Vladimir Putin said. If the goal was to occupy all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River, this would “take about three years”, he said.
Ukrainian officials expect an imminent Russian onslaught, possibly before the first anniversary of the start of the war on 24 February, although a renewed advance on the capital, Kyiv, is not thought likely, after an advance failed badly last year.
Ukrainian troops recaptured previously lost positions and gained a foothold “in some areas” along the front line, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi said, The Kyiv Independent reports.
Ukrainian soldiers attend a joint drills of armed forces, national guard and Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) near the border with Belarus. Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters
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Summary of the day so far
It’s 6pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces carried out a “massive strike” on critically important energy facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex on Friday. Ukraine’s energy minister, German Galushchenko, has said Russia hit power facilities in six regions with missiles and drones, causing blackouts across most of the country. Ukraine’s state-run energy operator Ukrenergo has said the situation in the country’s energy system is challenging but controlled.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said it could take two years for Russia to fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, two regions whose capture Moscow has stated as a key goal of the war. “If we have to get to the Dnipro, then it will take about three years,” Prigozhin added, referring to a larger area that would extend to the vast Dnipro River that runs roughly north to south, bisecting Ukraine.
Russian forces must capture the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut to proceed with their campaign, Prigozhin said in the same interview, while acknowledging that Ukrainian troops were mounting fierce resistance. Russian forces have been attempting to encircle and capture Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Donbas region, which has become the focal point of Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion and of Moscow’s drive to regain battlefield momentum.
Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine, but without preconditions, state media have reported the Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergey Vershinin, as saying. In an interview with state-run Zvezda television, Vershinin said it was not Ukraine, but the US and the EU that should make the decision on talks with Russia. Ukraine’s presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, who headed the country’s negotiating team in the early phases of the conflict, said “talks are out of the question”.
Half of Russia’s main battle tanks in Ukraine have probably been captured or destroyed in combat, a senior US defence official has said. Celeste Wallander, the assistant defence secretary for international security affairs, did not provide an exact figure for the number of tanks lost since Russia invaded last February but her estimate comes as Ukraine is set to receive an influx of heavy western tanks from its supporters.
The “increasingly direct rivalry between the Russian ministry of defence and Wagner” is likely a “key factor” in the alleged termination of the Russian mercenary group’s prisoner recruitment drive, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said. Wagner founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Thursday that the group had “completely stopped” recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine. The MoD intelligence update states that the regular Russian military had “likely now also deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under ‘partial mobilisation”.
Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, has said he and Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the Turkish embassy in Kyiv to commemorate the victims of Monday’s earthquake in Turkey and Syria. Ukraine has sent 88 rescue experts to help search flattened buildings for survivors, erect tents and offer first aid. The team includes specialists in search and rescue operations, doctors, dog handlers and firefighters.
Russia’s sports minister, Oleg Matytsin, has said Ukraine’s call to ban Russian athletes from the 2024 Paris Olympics was “unacceptable”, state media are reporting. He described the call as “a blatant desire to destroy the unity of international sport and the international Olympic movement”. His remarks came as a group of 35 countries will demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from the 2024 Olympics, according to the Lithuanian sports minister, Jurgita Šiugždinienė.
A proposed resolution for adoption by the UN’s general assembly has underlined the need for peace ensuring Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity”. The draft resolution from supporters of Ukraine, on the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is broader and less detailed than Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s 10-point peace plan he announced in November.
Zemfira, one of Russia’s most popular singers, has been placed on a list of “foreign agents” on grounds that she supported Ukraine and criticised Russia’s “special military operation” in that country, according to the Russian justice ministry. The ministry has added several other people to its “foreign agents” list, including opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov, political analyst Abbas Gallyamov, and activists Aleksandra Kazantseva and Tatyana Nazambaeva for “LGBT propaganda”.
Immigration authorities in Argentina are cracking down on Russian women who since the invasion of Ukraine have started travelling to Buenos Aires to give birth in order to gain Argentinian citizenship for their children. The director of Argentina’s immigration office, Florencia Carignano, said on Friday that a judicial investigation has been launched into what she described as a lucrative business that promises Argentinian passports for the Russian parents.
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Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, has said he and Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the Turkish embassy in Kyiv to commemorate the victims of Monday’s earthquake in Turkey and Syria.
President @ZelenskyyUa and I visited the Embassy of the Republic of Turkey in Ukraine to commemorate those who died in the devastating earthquake.
— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) February 11, 2023
We condole with their families and stand with the Turkish people in the time of ordeal. pic.twitter.com/kxacYeadQN
Ukraine has sent 88 rescue experts, more used to emergencies in a war zone at home, to help search flattened buildings for survivors, erect tents and offer first aid. The team includes specialists in search and rescue operations, doctors, dog handlers and firefighters.
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Ukraine’s state-run energy operator Ukrenergo has said the situation in the country’s energy system is challenging but controlled, after Russia’s latest missile and drone attack.
In a statement posted to Telegram, the company said:
For over a day, the enemy has been continuously attacking our country’s energy facilities. Last night, the 17th drone attack took place in southern and southeastern regions. Unfortunately, thermal power plants and main network objects again were hit.
Emergency power cuts were prevented thanks to repair crews, it said.
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Here are some of the latest images emerging from the war in Ukraine:
Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine, but without preconditions, state media have reported the Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergey Vershinin, as saying.
In an interview with state-run Zvezda television, Vershinin said:
Yes, according to the classics, any hostilities end up in talks, and, naturally, as we have said before, we will be ready for such talks, but only if those are talks with no preconditions, talks that would be based on the existing reality.
He added that it was not Ukraine, but the US and the EU that should make the decision on talks with Russia. He said:
Decisions are being made not in Kyiv, decisions are being made in other capitals, primarily in Washington and Brussels. So, inquiries should be sent there.
Moscow has repeatedly claimed it is ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine, but that Kyiv and its allies have refused to engage in talks.
The Kremlin has said it will fight until all its aims are achieved, while Ukraine has said it will not rest until every Russian soldier is ejected from all of its territory.
Ukraine’s presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, who earlier said “talks are out of the question” has tweeted in response to the Russian minister’s remarks.
The day of the war: 106 missiles, 30 drones, dozens of destroyed buildings, over 1,000 occupiers killed near Donetsk. And Putin declares with a smile "we did not start wars, we do not kill." Define this behavior. Would you like to enter into any kind of agreement with him?
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) February 11, 2023
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Russia says it carried out ‘massive strike’ on Ukraine’s energy facilities
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces carried out a “massive strike” on critically important energy facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex on Friday.
In a daily update, the ministry did not identify the energy facilities it claimed to have hit. It said the strike had also blocked the transport of foreign weapons and ammunition by rail to battlegrounds in Ukraine.
Russia launched a large-scale missile attack in Ukraine on Friday, striking several cities including the capital, Kyiv. Ukraine’s armed forces said late on Friday that Russian forces had fired more than 100 missiles and mounted 12 air and 20 shelling attacks. It said 61 Russian cruise missiles were destroyed.
Ukraine’s energy minister, German Galushchenko, said Russia had hit power facilities in six regions with missiles and drones, causing blackouts across most of the country.
Wagner head says Russia could take two years to capture east Ukraine regions
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said it could take two years for Russia to fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, two regions whose capture Moscow has stated as a key goal of the war.
In a video published on Friday with the Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov, reported by Reuters, Prigozhin said:
As far as I understand, we need to close off the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and in principle that will suit everyone for now.
That could take one and a half to two years, he said.
In September, Vladimir Putin formally annexed the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in defiance of international law and condemned by UN member states as illegal.
“If we have to get to the Dnipro, then it will take about three years,” Prigozhin added, referring to a larger area that would extend to the vast Dnipro River that runs roughly north to south, bisecting Ukraine.
Prigozhin does not speak for the Russian military but his comments provide a rare insight into Russian expectations of the conflict, from the head of a group at the centre of some of its fiercest fighting.
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Russia’s sports minister, Oleg Matytsin, has said Ukraine’s call to ban Russian athletes from the 2024 Paris Olympics was “unacceptable”, state media are reporting.
Matytsin was quoted saying:
The attempt to dictate the conditions of athletes’ participation in international competitions is absolutely unacceptable.
He described the call as “a blatant desire to destroy the unity of international sport and the international Olympic movement”.
The Russian minister’s remarks came as a group of 35 countries will demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from the 2024 Olympics, according to the Lithuanian sports minister, Jurgita Šiugždinienė.
The IOC recently moved away from having an outright ban on athletes from Russia and Belarus, and is investigating ways they can qualify for the Olympics under a neutral flag.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Friday renewed his calls for a boycott of the Games, arguing that “the mere presence of representatives of the terrorist state is a manifestation of violence and lawlessness”.
Ukraine has launched a marathon of honesty, and I urge you to join.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 10, 2023
The International Olympic Committee needs honesty. Honesty it has unfortunately lost.
While Russia kills and terrorizes, representatives of the terrorist state have no place at sports and Olympic competitions. pic.twitter.com/5d7QYz7kU4
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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said Russian forces must capture the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut to proceed with their campaign, but acknowledged that Ukrainian troops were mounting fierce resistance.
Russian forces have been attempting to encircle and capture Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Donbas region, which has become the focal point of Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion and of Moscow’s drive to regain battlefield momentum.
In an interview with a Russian military correspondent, reported by Reuters and AP, Prigozhin said Moscow had to establish clear goals in its campaign – to firmly establish its presence in eastern Ukraine or push forward to capture more of the country.
He said:
Bakhmut is needed so our troops can operate comfortably. Why is it called the meat grinder? Because the Ukrainian army is sending more and more and more units.
He added:
It is probably too early to say that we are close. There are many roads out and fewer roads in. Ukrainian troops are well trained … and like any large city it is impossible to capture it from head-on. We are managing very well. First we have to quietly take [Bakhmut] and then we can say loud and clear that we have taken it.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said his troops will fight to hold on to Bakhmut for as long as they can. “Nobody will give away Bakhmut. We will fight for as long as we can. We consider Bakhmut our fortress,” he said earlier this month.
It could take 18 months to two years for Russia to fully secure control of Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas, Prigozhin said.
He added that the war could go on for three years if Russia decided to capture broader territories east of the Dnieper River.
The statement by Prigozhin, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, marked a recognition of the difficulties that the Kremlin has faced in its military campaign in Ukraine.
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UN draft resolution: Any peace must keep Ukraine intact
A proposed resolution for adoption by the UN’s general assembly, on the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has underlined the need for peace ensuring Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity”.
The draft resolution from supporters of Ukraine, obtained by the Associated Press, is broader and less detailed than Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s 10-point peace plan he announced in November.
General Assembly spokesperson, Paulina Kubiak, said a reactivated emergency session of the assembly on Ukraine will start on 22 February. A vote is expected the following day.
Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Emine Dzhaparova, said last month that Zelenskiy wanted to come to the UN for the anniversary. But expectations of a major new Russian offensive may keep him in Ukraine, diplomats say.
The UN’s general assembly has become the most important UN body dealing with Ukraine because its security council, which is charged with maintaining international peace and security, is paralysed because of Russia’s veto power.
The Ukrainian-backed draft resolution was circulated on Thursday night to all UN member nations except Russia and its ally Belarus, and negotiations on the text started on Friday afternoon, according to diplomats.
It underlines the need to reach “a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in Ukraine “as soon as possible” in line with the principles of the UN Charter.
The Charter states that all UN member nations “shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state”, and must settle disputes peacefully.
The proposed resolution reiterates the general assembly’s previous demand that Russia “immediately, completely, and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces” from Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.
It also reaffirms that no territory acquired by the threat or use of force will be considered legal.
All prisoners of war, detainees and internees must be treated in accordance with the Geneva conventions, the draft continues, and calls for the “complete exchange” of prisoners of war, the release of people unlawfully detained, “and the return of all internees and of civilians forcibly transferred and deported, including children”.
The proposed resolution urges all countries “to cooperate in the spirit of solidarity to address the global impact of the war on food security, energy, finance, the environment, and nuclear security and safety”.
It would deplore “the dire human rights and humanitarian consequences of the aggression against Ukraine, including the continuous attacks against critical infrastructure across Ukraine with devastating consequences for civilians”. And it would call for full adherence to international humanitarian law on the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure.
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Russian troops shelled Ukraine’s southern Kherson region more than 60 times using artillery, anti-aircraft guns, mortars, and tanks over the past day, according to local officials.
Three civilians sustained “injuries of varying degrees of severity”, it said in a Telegram post.
It added that the Russian army attacked Kherson city 16 times over the past day, damaging residential houses and building of the railway station.
Zemfira, one of Russia’s most popular singers, has been placed on a list of “foreign agents” on grounds that she supported Ukraine and criticised Russia’s “special military operation” in that country, according to the Russian justice ministry.
Zemfira, whose full name is Zemfira Ramazanova, “openly supported Ukraine, held concerts in unfriendly countries while speaking against the special military operation and received support from foreign sources”, Russian state-run Tass news agency has reported, citing a ministry statement.
An ethnic Volga Tatar born in the central Russian region of Bashkortostan, Zemfira began performing in 1998 and gained popularity in Russia and other ex-Soviet states.
She was known to oppose the war in Ukraine and for a time her website featured the slogan “No to war”. She reportedly left Russia to settle in France after Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine last February.
Individuals labelled “foreign agents” by the Russian government have often been subjected to police searches and other punitive measures. Many have left the country in the past year.
The ministry has added several other people to its “foreign agents” list, including opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov, political analyst Abbas Gallyamov, and activists Aleksandra Kazantseva and Tatyana Nazambaeva for “LGBT propaganda”.
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Ukraine’s presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, who headed the country’s negotiating team in the early phases of the conflict, has said “talks are out of the question”.
Podolyak posted to Twitter that Moscow was refusing to withdraw from occupied Ukrainian territories and to admit to “crimes”.
In periodic "peace and talks" rhetoric the Kremlin says it won't leave the 🇺🇦 territories & won't be responsible for crimes...
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) February 11, 2023
It's another proof that talks are out of the question. Only 🇺🇦 victory, otherwise the war in Europe won't end, and 🇷🇺 will criminally dominate the world.
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Are RAF Typhoons what Ukraine needs?
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s call this week for “powerful English planes” was something of a surprise. The demand for western fast jets may have been predictable, but not the apparent request for Typhoons, the workhorse fighter of an increasingly stretched RAF.
Prior to the president’s attention-grabbing European trip, Ukrainian lobbying for Nato-standard combat aircraft had been focused almost entirely on US-made F-16s, of which there are 3,000 in service worldwide. “It is the most widespread fighter jet in the world and many Nato members have it,” Yuriy Ihnat, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force, had said the weekend before.
No mention was made of the Typhoons, which cost about £75m each. Giving some to Ukraine would present all sorts of complications, although Rishi Sunak has instructed the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, to see what can be done.
For his part, Wallace wasted little time in sounding sceptical, pointing out that the Typhoon is made by the four-country Eurofighter consortium, and so it would require not just Britain to agree to its use but also its partners Italy, Spain and Germany.
The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has already once ruled out sending fighter jets, and he has complained about western countries being in a “constant competition to outbid each other” in the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
Then there is the question of how many RAF Typhoons are available. The RAF has 137 on paper, and the 30 oldest, known as tranche 1, are due to be retired by 2025. Of these, 20 are operational and 10 are in storage.
Ukraine has asked for 200 fighters to help it defend its skies – more than the number of fighters available to the RAF (about 160) and closer in size to the French air force.
Experts say the Typhoon lacks combat requirements that Ukraine needs. The tranche 1 Typhoons are predominantly air-to-air fighters, and not much use for the close air support (ground bombing) missions that Ukraine would want to fly against entrenched Russian positions.
Immigration authorities in Argentina are cracking down on Russian women who since the invasion of Ukraine have started travelling to Buenos Aires to give birth in order to gain Argentinian citizenship for their children.
The director of Argentina’s immigration office, Florencia Carignano, said on Friday that a judicial investigation has been launched into what she described as a lucrative business that promises Argentinian passports for the Russian parents.
Carignano spoke after 33 expecting women – all between 32 and 34 weeks into their pregnancies – arrived on the same flight late on Thursday. Several of the women were initially turned away at passport control but were eventually let into the country.
While the concept of birth tourism isn’t new, Moscow’s isolation from the west as a result of the war has made Argentina, where Russians face no visa requirements, a popular destination for families looking to give their children the privileges of second citizenship.
Some 10,500 pregnant Russians have arrived in the South American country in the past year, Carignano said.
Carignano said in a Telenueve channel interview on Friday that “5,800 of them [were] in the last three months, many of them declaring they were in the 33rd or 34th week of pregnancy.”
The official said that about 7,000 of the women returned home after giving birth, leaving Argentinian lawyers charged with applying for Argentinian citizenship for the baby – and then the parents.
“The problem is that they arrive, have their children and then leave Argentina never to come back,” Carignano said.
We cannot allow them to shamelessly lie to us saying that they are tourists when they are not.
Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces has published its latest update on Russian casualties, including 1,140 soldiers in the past day.
These figures have not been independently verified.
Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 11.02.23 орієнтовно склали / The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 11.02.23 were approximately pic.twitter.com/CIM70aZF2F
— Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (@GeneralStaffUA) February 11, 2023
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Increasing rivalry between Wagner and Russian defence ministry ‘key factor’ in end of prisoner recruitment, says UK MoD
The latest intelligence update from the UK’s Ministry of Defence states that a key factor in the alleged termination of the Russian mercenary group’s prisoner recruitment drive is likely to be the “increasingly direct rivalry between the Russian ministry of defence and Wagner”.
Wagner founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Thursday that the group had “completely stopped” recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine.
The group began recruiting prisoners in Russia’s sprawling penal system last summer, offering convicts a pardon if they survived six months in Ukraine.
It has not provided information on how many convicts have joined its ranks, but Russian penal service figures published in November showed the country’s prison population had dropped by more than 20,000 between August and November, the largest fall in over a decade.
According to figures published in January, the decline had largely stopped. The UK ministry writes that the data suggests a drop-off in the rate of prisoner recruitment since December.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 11 February 2023
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 11, 2023
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/v7qL4SkvX3
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/N8gnUNhhJY
It adds:
News of the harsh realities of Wagner service in Ukraine has probably filtered through to inmates and reduced the number of volunteers. However, a key factor in the termination of the scheme is likely increasingly direct rivalry between the Russian Ministry of Defence and Wagner.
The Wagner group has played an increasingly prominent role in Russia’s war in Ukraine, spearheading a months-long assault on the town of Bakhmut.
The US intelligence community said in December that it believed Wagner had deployed 40,000 convict fighters in Ukraine, making up the vast majority of the group’s personnel in the country.
The MoD update goes on to say that the regular Russian military had “likely now also deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under ‘partial mobilisation”.
The Russian leadership faces the difficult choice of either continuing to deplete its forces, scale back objectives, or conduct a further form of mobilisation.
Hello. It’s Léonie Chao-Fong here, taking over the live blog from Adam Fulton to bring you the latest news from Ukraine. Feel free to get in touch on Twitter or via email.
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Here are some of the latest images coming in from Ukraine via news agency wires:
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International Monetary Fund staff will meet with Ukrainian officials in Warsaw next week, a source familiar with the plans has said, as Ukraine presses for a multibillion-dollar borrowing program to cover its funding needs amid the war with Russia.
Reuters reports that global ratings agency Moody’s on Friday downgraded Ukraine’s sovereign rating to Ca as it expects the war with Russia to create long-lasting challenges for the country. Moody’s website said the rating meant debt obligations were “likely in, or very near, default”.
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Half of Russia’s main battle tanks in Ukraine are likely to have been captured or destroyed in combat, a senior US defence official has said.
Celeste Wallander, the assistant defence secretary for international security affairs, made the comments on Friday at a virtual event at the Centre for a New American Security thinktank.
Agence France-Presse also reported that Wallander did not provide an exact figure for the number of tanks lost since Russia invaded last February but her estimate comes as Ukraine is set to receive an influx of heavy western tanks from its supporters.
Britain has said its Challenger 2 tanks will be deployed in Ukraine in March, while Germany and its allies aim to get a battalion of Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv by April.
The US has also promised a battalion – or 31 – of its M1 Abrams tanks, but they are expected to take significantly longer to arrive.
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Joe Biden will use his trip to Poland this month to rally allies while aiming to sustain the coalition that has supported Ukraine defences since Russia’s invasion a year ago, Associated Press reports.
The US president’s visit, set for 20-22 February, comes as polling in the US and abroad suggests support is waning for maintaining tens of billions of dollars worth of assistance for Ukraine in the war. In addition, Republicans who recently took control of the House of Representatives have voiced scepticism – or outright opposition – to continuing the funding.
Russia, meanwhile, is believed to be planning a renewed offensive in conjunction with the anniversary, and has stepped up its long-range attacks on Ukraine’s military and civilian infrastructure in recent weeks.
The White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, said Biden would meet with the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, and the leaders of the Bucharest Nine – Nato allies in Eastern Europe – to discuss his “unwavering support” for the alliance.
It remained unclear whether Biden would try to visit Ukraine, as many other western leaders and members of Congress have done.
Biden visited Poland weeks after the war began in February, delivering a forceful case for supporting Ukraine’s defence in front of Warsaw’s iconic Royal Castle. The US first lady, Jill Biden, briefly crossed the border on a trip in May and met her counterpart, Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska.
Biden and White House officials have highlighted the unique security challenges raised by a potential visit by a US president to a country under invasion by nuclear-armed Russia.
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Opening summary
Hello, I’m Adam Fulton and I’ll be bringing you the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Russia bombarded Ukraine in a large-scale attack on Friday, hitting several cities including Kyiv, the capital. Ukraine said Russian forces fired more than 100 missiles throughout the country and carried out 12 air and 20 shelling attacks, and that Ukraine shot down 61 missiles.
Kyiv said Russia struck power facilities in six regions, causing blackouts across most of Ukraine.
The attacks came a day after Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy ended a tour of European allies to lobby leaders for long-range weapons and fighter jets. Zelenskiy said: “London, Paris, Brussels – everywhere I spoke these past few days about how to strengthen our soldiers … We received good signals.”
In other developments as it approaches 9am in Kyiv:
US president Joe Biden announced he would mark one year since Russia’s invasion by visiting Poland, Ukraine’s neighbour and Nato ally, on 20-22 February. “The president will make it very clear that the United States will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” said John Kirby, a spokesperson for the White House national security council.
Two Russian cruise missiles entered the airspace of Moldova and Romania, Ukraine said. Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said the Kalibr rockets crossed into Moldova at 10.18am local time on Friday. They then flew into Romania at 10.33am at the intersection of the state border before recrossing into western Ukraine, he said.
Moldova confirmed at least one missile had overflown its airspace and summoned the Russian ambassador over the incident. It is not the first time Russia has sent its missiles into Moldova, with the conflict in danger of spilling out across the region. On Friday, Moldova’s pro-EU government resigned, adding to the sense of crisis.
Romania’s foreign ministry categorically denied an incursion occurred. It said the Russian cruise missiles came to within 35km (22 miles) of the country’s north-eastern border but did not violate its territory.
The US has “no indication” of a direct military threat by Russia to Moldova or Romania at this time, US state department spokesperson Vedant Patel said. “We maintain close contact and communication with our Moldovan partners and Romanian allies.”
Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said 10 Russian missiles had been shot down over the capital in Russia’s wave of attacks and that sirens blared during the Friday morning rush hour, with weary civilians taking shelter. It was the first attack on the capital in two weeks.
Ukraine has officially asked the Netherlands for F-16 fighter jets, its air force has said. The Dutch defence minister, Kajsa Ollongren, confirmed the request, saying: “We need to discuss the availability of the F-16 with the Americans and other allies.”
Any decision to supply fighter jets to Ukraine must come from Nato, Poland’s prime minister said. Mateusz Morawiecki said “some countries” at an EU summit in Brussels did not agree with his proposals about deliveries of ammunition to Kyiv. He added that Poland was “not excluding” closing further border crossings with Belarus, citing “growing tensions”.
Russia has launched a major offensive in eastern Ukraine and is trying to break through defences near the town of Kreminna, the governor for the Luhansk region said on Thursday. Serhiy Haidai said Russian troops had gone on the attack and were trying to advance westwards across a winter landscape of snow and forests. There had been “maximum escalation” and a big increase in shooting and shelling, he said.
A group of 35 countries will demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from the 2024 Paris Olympics, according to Lithuania’s sports minister, Jurgita Šiugždinienė. The International Olympic Committee recently moved away from having an outright ban on athletes from Russia and Belarus and is investigating ways they can qualify for the Olympics under a neutral flag.
Marina Ovsyannikova, the former Russian state TV editor who interrupted a live news broadcast to protest against the start of the Ukraine war, has described her “chaotic” escape from house arrest in Moscow and how she fled across Europe to seek asylum in France.
With contributions from Reuters and Agence France-Presse
Updated
