There is a pressing need to understand what’s behind Moscow’s growing threat to use military force against Ukraine. The real motivation for Russia’s aggression will largely determine the west’s room for manoeuvre. Despite amassing 100,000 troops on its western border with Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly denied that it plans to invade its neighbour. But the country has also declared its readiness to respond to any provocation.
If the Russian government’s actions are driven by the logic of regime survival, no amount of western concessions will prevent Russia from constantly undermining Ukraine’s statehood. We believe there are two dominant perspectives that can explain Russia’s recent escalation of tensions with Ukraine. One is that Russia’s policy is driven by power and security considerations, and the other is that challenges at home push Moscow towards a more aggressive policy. Both have practical repercussions for the region.
