The geopolitical breakdown between Ukraine and Russia is likely to have a direct bearing on the travel and hospitality sectors of Kerala.
The airlines were hoping to resume normal services soon after the third wave of the pandemic. However, experts feel that if the situation remains unchanged, the rebound of the travel industry will be delayed further due to possible serious economic repercussions in West Asia as a result of the war-like scenario.
A senior Air India official said the passenger load of airlines has been steadily improving after the second wave of COVID-19, except for a few weeks during the peak of the third wave. In fact, it is expected to see a surge in the coming months. But if the shifty political situation in Ukraine persists, the resurgence of the travel industry and hospitality sectors will be delayed, he added.
E. M. Najeeb, senior vice president, Indian Association of Tour Operators, said Kerala’s tourist economy has been mainly catering to domestic tourists since the COVID-19 outbreak in the absence of foreign tourists. But the industry, including Kerala Tourism, has been making preparations to host foreign tourists from next season, which typically begins after the peak of south-west monsoon and the tourist season reaches its pinnacle during winter. Kerala Tourism had also started attending roadshows and holding B2B meetings in international tourist platforms ahead of the third wave of the pandemic, he said.
However, Mr. Najeeb said the tensions between Russian and Ukraine would lead to economic uncertainty in West Asia. He cites the example of the oil prices reaching a seven-year high now.
In addition, the geopolitical breakdown between the two nations would send ripples across Europe and the United States that send the highest number of foreign tourists to Kerala annually, said Mr. Najeeb.
Around 40,000 Russians visit Kerala annually, while the number of tourists from the United Kingdom comes around 2 lakh, followed by the U.S. (1 lakh), France and Germany. These countries account for the lion’s share of the foreign tourist arrivals in the State, he said.
Signs of de-escalation
S, Irudaya Rajan, chairman of International Institute of Migration and Development, said though the situation had been quite fluid in the last few days, signs of de-escalation of tensions in the region, with Russia withdrawing some of its troops from the Ukraine border, have raised hopes.
Presently, only some students from Kerala were inconvenienced by the state of affairs, and if Russia continues to pull back its troops, there would be no major reason for worry, added Mr. Rajan.
