US intelligence has reportedly warned that Russia could expand its potential drone operations to parts of southern Europe, with Spain, France and Italy identified as countries that could potentially face sea-launched drone attacks, according to a report by Spain’s El Mundo .
The reported assessment does not identify any specific tourist resorts or individual targets, but raises concerns about the vulnerability of Mediterranean coastal areas to attacks launched from offshore.
A map printed in El Mundo shows that all of Italy, except for the northeastern regions, are reportedly under the coverage of Russian drones.
These reports come in the wake of overall European concerns about attempts being made by the Russians to test the response of NATO through limited or “hybrid” attacks. They also come after a secretive visit of US CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow in August, during which American officials were understood to have cautioned the Russians not to attack NATO territories, according to The Sun.
The Washington Post reported that the trip followed intelligence suggesting the Kremlin viewed the US as weakened and might see an opportunity to escalate.
How Russia could launch drones from the Mediterranean
According to El Mundo , cited by ANSA, the suspected situation involves Gerbera drones concealed inside shipping containers aboard commercial vessels and launched from international waters.
“They will use sea-launched drones, hidden in containers; it's not difficult at all," explains a source close to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense.
The Gerbera is particularly significant because the drone has already appeared in recent incidents involving NATO territory. Reuters reported that a Russian-made Gerbera was shot down over Lithuania earlier this month by an Italian NATO fighter. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said it was probably headed for Ukraine but may have been diverted by electronic warfare. A Gerbera 2 carrying a warhead was also found on a Polish Baltic Sea beach, according to Polish prosecutors.
Gerbera is especially significant as the use of this drone has already been noted in the recent incidents related to NATO territories. According to Reuters, a Russian Gerbera drone was reportedly shot down by the Italian NATO jet over Lithuania last week.
Lithuania's president, Gitanas Nausėda, noted that it was probably heading towards Ukraine but could have been deviated due to electronic warfare. A Gerbera 2 drone loaded with a warhead was also discovered at the Polish Baltic coast by Polish prosecutors.
Gerbera is reported to be about 2 meters in length, 2.5 meters wingspan, weighing up to 18 kg with the speed of 160 km/h, having a range of up to 600 km.
Why tourist areas could become a concern
The reported intelligence does not say if Russia has selected beaches, resorts or airports as confirmed targets. Instead, European security officials are concerned about the broader potential impact of attacks against civilian and economic infrastructure.
There is no mention in the intelligence report whether Russia has chosen specific locations including but not limited to beaches, resorts, or airports as its target. Rather, the focus of European security officials is more on the potential implications of attacks against civilian and economic infrastructure.
This intelligence warning has come at a time when Europe's leaders are increasingly referring to Russia’s actions as a hybrid threat. On September 18, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, said that the hybrid threat posed by Russia to Europe and France had become more serious.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has similarly warned that “These coming weeks and months will be a time of very intensified actions on the Russian side, and unfortunately we cannot rule out that this escalation will also affect our territory.”
