A maritime ceasefire deal to allow the safe passage of ships and end the use of force in the Black Sea could soon come into effect. Brokered over the past two weeks by the United States and agreed to by both Russia and Ukraine, it has immediately raised concerns that it could mainly benefit Russia.
Indeed, at first sight, since Ukraine has had the upper hand in the Black Sea for the past two years, the ceasefire seems to not only benefit Russia but also undermine Ukraine’s strategic advantage at sea.
But a more careful assessment of the naval situation in the Black Sea, balanced against possible diplomatic gains, reveals a more nuanced picture.
