THE Scottish Tories will slip into third place at Holyrood after the 2026 election unless Russell Findlay can “find some charisma” to distance himself from the UK party, an expert has said.
Party leader Findlay has refused to give his backing to either of the two candidates that have made the final ballot for UK Tory leadership – Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick – and Tory MSPs are reportedly unhappy with the choice that remains for members.
Phil Burton-Cartledge, a sociology expert who has written a book on the rise and fall of the Tories from Margaret Thatcher to Rishi Sunak, said with a right-wing politician now destined to lead the party down south and the accompanying rise of Reform UK, it is “hard to see” how the Scottish Tories can ever hang on to second place at Holyrood come 2026.
He stressed Findlay would need to “find some presence” of his own if he has any hope of holding onto the Tories' status as the main opposition in Edinburgh.
Asked if the latest result in the Tory leadership contest will make the Holyrood election harder for Russell Findlay, he told The National: “I do think political realities at Westminster make it harder for the [Scottish] Tories – precisely because they have opted for an obviously right-wing leader, whoever that will be).
“Regardless of what one thinks of Boris Johnson, his appeal to some voters was real enough and in Scotland in 2019 the Tories polled 692,000 votes (28.6%).
“Neither would-be Tory leader has the personality to carry off a similar pitch. Unless Russell Findlay finds some charisma and presence of his own that puts distance between the Scottish Tories and the London leadership, it's hard to see how they can retain their second place at Holyrood.”
Asked whether either Badenoch or Jenrick would be good for the party, Findlay told journalists on Wednesday that “we’ll just have to wait and see the outcome” before running away from reporters.
It is well known that several MSPs were supporters of the more centrist Tom Tugendhat who exited the contest on Tuesday before James Cleverly – who was backed by former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson – surprisingly followed suit on Wednesday, leaving the two most right-wing candidates vying to be leader of the opposition.
Findlay has previously said his party is “acutely conscious” of Reform’s vote share in the General Election, with Farage’s party winning 7% of votes cast in Scotland while the Tories managed just shy of 13%.
However, he has suggested he will try and maintain the Scottish Tories’ centre-right stance, with his former leadership rival Murdo Fraser having suggested the party will not win back voters by “chasing Nigel Farage’s agenda”.
But whatever the approach, Burton-Cartledge claims that even if Scottish Labour are damaged by the ever-diminishing popularity of Keir Starmer, Findlay’s party will likely slip into third at the Scottish Parliament.
“The Scottish Tories are hoping Reform won't be a force before the next round of Holyrood elections,” said Burton-Cartledge.
“Based on the General Election results, this is a forlorn hope.
“Nigel Farage's party won 7% of votes cast in Scotland, whereas the Tories managed just shy of 13%.
“If the performance of the Greens and LibDems at the 2021 elections are any indicator, this could see the party win between four and eight seats - all likely at the Tories' expense.
“Regardless of whether Labour's Scottish revival continues or is hit by a backlash against Keir Starmer's government, it's likely the Tories will slip into third place.”
