As one of the few in the short list for Republican vice presidential candidate, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is close to becoming the first Latino nominee in a large party ticket. But according to a new analysis by NBC News, a question key to determining whether he'll be chosen is whether his background and political journey can attract Latino and other voters to the Trump ticket.
Current polls indicate Trump has gained more support from Latino voters this year, as he's been doing since 2016.
Rubio's bilingual abilities in English and Spanish are seen as a significant advantage. Giancarlo Sopo, a communication strategist who worked on Trump's Hispanic media strategy in 2020, told the outlet that Republicans are making significant gains with English-dominant Latinos but struggle more with those who primarily consume Spanish-language media. Sopo noted that, according to a 2022 poll, Democrats had a substantial lead among Latinos who get their news in Spanish.
Bernard Fraga, a political science professor at Emory University, suggests that Rubio's presence could increase Latino voter turnout, which did not see similar gains for the GOP in the midterms as it did in the 2020 presidential election. Over half of Latino voters in Florida supported Rubio and Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2022 midterms, though Trump received less than half of Florida's Latino vote in 2020.
The Latino electorate, comprising many young and uncommitted voters, represents a significant opportunity for Rubio to connect with voters through his heritage, Christian faith, and expertise in foreign policy and taxes. Fraga believes Rubio can mobilize Latino Republicans, building enthusiasm and easing the Republican Party's efforts to demonstrate their commitment to the Latino community.
Jason Villalba, CEO of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, suggests that Rubio's presence might provide reassurance to some Republicans. He describes Rubio as a thoughtful, articulate figure who could resonate with certain voters despite his association with Trump's "MAGA" movement.
However, Rubio's background does not guarantee increased support from Latino voters. Marcel Lopez, a Mexican American student, told NBC News that he acknowledged the potential significance of having a Latino vice-presidential nominee but states that Trump's felony conviction overshadows Rubio's potential influence on his vote.
Similarly, Dina Ramirez-Crump, a mammography technician, believes Rubio's presence on the ticket will not sway her support for President Joe Biden, citing Rubio's inconsistent positions on representing the Latino community.
Rubio's past criticisms of Trump and his subsequent alignment with his policies have come under scrutiny as well. Despite once denouncing Trump's comments about Mexicans, Rubio has dismissed these past criticisms as campaign rhetoric. He supported certifying Biden's 2020 election and has recently echoed Trump's stance on mass deportations.
Some Republicans, like Marlon Gonzalez from Florida, question Rubio's loyalty to Trump. Gonzalez prefers Senator JD Vance of Ohio as Trump's running mate, expressing concerns about Rubio's commitment. Victor Martinez, a radio show host in Pennsylvania, doubts Rubio's influence outside Florida, particularly among Puerto Ricans, due to his stance on Puerto Rican statehood.
Nonetheless, Democrat Michael La Rosa expressed concern in a New York Times opinion piece that Rubio's nomination could tap into cultural pride and transcend partisan divides, making him a formidable candidate. Tapia, the optician from Tucson, believes Rubio's addition to the ticket could significantly impact the election.
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