KEY POINTS
- January 6th protesters have the highest odds at 93%
- Ross Ulbricht comes in next, with a 66% chance of getting pardoned
- There were also bettors who believe Trump will pardon 'Bitcoin Jesus' Roger Ver
The Donald Trump presidency is closely being watched for many reasons, and one of them is who he will pardon, considering some of the promises he made during his campaign.
Several names have popped up over social media, but on Polymarket, cryptocurrency bettors have some divisive figures in the lead of who the new President will pardon in his first 100 days at the White House.
Polymarket's event contract on Trump pardons is now a $4.1 million bet, and so far, the biggest bets are on Silk Road Founder Ross Ulbricht. After all, the incoming president did promise to Bitcoiners earlier this year that he would free Ulbricht. But on the event contract, Ulbricht isn't even the leading name.
1. January 6 Protesters
In his Person of the Year interview for TIME Magazine, the 45th U.S. president said he will pardon Jan. 6 Capitol rioters based on their cases. "If they were non-violent, I think they've been greatly punished," he said, suggesting non-violent protesters will be off the hook.
The Jan. 6 riot turned out to be one of the most divisive events in U.S. history. Five people were left dead after Trump supporters stormed the Capitol ahead of outgoing President Joe Biden's inauguration in January 2021.
For bettors on decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket, there is a staggering 93% chance Jan. 6 protesters will be pardoned during Trump's first three months in office.
2. Ross Ulbricht
Trump stole the hearts of the Bitcoin community during the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville earlier this year when he promised he would free Ulbricht, the creator of the darkweb marketplace Silk Road, which facilitated Bitcoin payments for illegal items, including controlled substances.
The crypto community promised to hold the 47th president accountable for his promise regarding Ulbricht's freedom, who recently started his 12th year in prison.
Ulbricht was arrested in 2013 after authorities shut down Silk Road. Many crypto users joined the #FreeRoss movement, which insisted that Ulbricht was "held responsible for what others listed on Silk Road."
Ulbricht and his family, who are maintaining his social media accounts, have expressed high hopes that Trump will keep his promise.
Polymarket bettors have Ulbricht's odds of being pardoned at 66%.
3. Roger Ver
Also known as "Bitcoin Jesus," Ver is known in the crypto space for being an early adopter and promoter of Bitcoin and crypto. He infamously renounced his U.S. citizenship in 2014 and was arrested earlier this year in Spain on tax evasion and other charges.
Ver told Tucker Carlson earlier this week that he believes the U.S. is trying to extradite him not because of his tax evasion case but because of his "lack of obedience." He also noted how he was among the first Bitcoin investors and believes it is the reason he is being pursued.
Roger Ver is facing life in prison for revealing how the US government worked secretly to subvert cryptocurrency and prevent economic freedom. More people should hear this story.
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) December 10, 2024
(0:00) Roger Ver Facing Extradition
(7:49) The Hijacking of Bitcoin
(12:18) How the Government… pic.twitter.com/nchtsmsovn
For Polymarket users, there is a 39% chance Trump will pardon Ver. It may not be an impossible bet, since Trump has pivoted hard toward BTC and the broader crypto space.
4. Steve Bannon
Bannon, who was found guilty in 2022 on two counts of contempt for failing to appear before the House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, has 38% odds of getting pardoned, at least for Polymarket bettors.
Bannon is a former advisor to Trump and had also been charged with money laundering and conspiracy by the Manhattan District Attorney's office for his alleged deception of donors for the "We Build the Wall" campaign.
The Trump ally was also accused of being "knee-deep" in the alleged "plan" to get people to protest the 2020 presidential election results.
5. Runner Ups: Julian Assange and Edward Snowden
Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, which published high-profile leaked documents, reached a plea deal with the U.S. earlier this year, avoiding a potential 175-year sentence under the 1917 Espionage Act for his leaking of American national security secrets in 2010.
Ahead of his flight back home to Australia, Assange's wife requested donations to cover the massive costs for his chartered flight. Assange was not allowed to fly commercially, so he owed his government $520,000 for the jet that flew him back home.
On-chain data showed that an anonymous donor sent 8.21 Bitcoins worth around $494,000 in June to help cover Assange's flight costs. Many crypto users at the time believed that Twitter co-founder and former CEO Jack Dorsey made the generous donation.
With Trump seemingly more open to the fight for free speech, Polymarket bettors have Assange's chances of getting pardoned at 22%. Quite interestingly, Assange's case divided the journalism industry, with some questioning his ethics.
There's also Edward Snowden, a former U.S. intelligence contractor, who shocked the world when he revealed that the U.S. was secretly collecting communications and private data of Americans and people around the world.
Snowden is currently in exile in Moscow, and even if he wants to be elsewhere with his American wife, he is wanted in the United States on charges under the Espionage Act.
It is unclear whether Trump is interested in pardoning Snowden, but in 2020, he did express he would look into the former intelligence contractor's case. Trump appealed to libertarians during his campaign for the 2024 elections, and notably, some libertarians praised Snowden for his leaks.
Polymarket bettors have Snowden's chances of getting a Trump pardon at 17%.
There were also some bettors who bet over $293,000 worth of cryptocurrencies on Trump possibly pardoning himself, with odds reaching 10%.
