With Gareth Southgate mulling over England’s matches against Brazil and Belgium as he prepares to name his squad for Euro 2024, FourFourTwo can reveal the squad he should be taking to Germany if he bases his choices purely on statistics.
Using Opta data provided by BetMGM, a 23-man squad has been selected based on statistics from the domestic season so far – which has thrown up some surprising names.
Luton have been bravely battling the drop all season in the Premier League, and the statistics show that their talisman Ross Barkley deserves a place on the plane to Germany.
The midfielder, who has not played for his country since 2019, is the only player in the Premier League to have more than 30 shots, create more than 30 chances, complete more than 30 dribbles and make 30-plus tackles since the turn of December. BetMGM prices him at 20/1 to make the final squad.
Unsurprisingly, he is joined by Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice in midfield, with James Maddison – who has been involved in 11 goals for Tottenham in just 18 appearances this season – and Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher.
Notably, Jordan Henderson misses out on the squad after a season at Al-Ettifaq and Ajax. Southgate has tended to favour the former Liverpool captain’s experience in previous squads, and he is priced at 3/5 to make the Euros.
Manchester United’s new young star Kobbie Mainoo doesn’t make the squad - although this will be down to his very recent burst onto the scene compared with his fellow midfielders.
Gareth Southgate’s faith in Jordan Pickford also seems well placed - only Arsenal’s David Raya has kept more clean sheets than the Everton stopper in the Premier League this season.
In defence, Ben White has made it clear he doesn’t wish, at this stage, to be picked for the national side, but statistics show Southgate could do worse than getting him to reconsider. Since the start of last season, the only Premier League defenders with more goal involvements than White (4 goals, 9 assists) are his England team-mates Kieran Trippier and Trent Alexander-Arnold – who both make this statistics-driven selection.
Brighton’s Lewis Dunk earned a call-up to the most recent squad, and the statistics show that Southgate should stick by him - only Manchester City’s Rodri has completed more passes in the Premier League. He is 13/20 to make the plane.
England’s array of attacking options will have undoubtedly caused Southgate some selection headaches. No prizes for guessing Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish joining skipper Harry Kane as forwards in the stats squad.
Elsewhere, Cole Palmer’s breakthrough season for Chelsea has earned himself a place after 19 Premier League goal involvements already this season while Anthony Gordon, who earned himself a debut against Brazil last weekend, is also named in the squad. Gordon is priced at 7/4 to be named in the final squad.
Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins completes the forward line after registering more goals and assists combined (16 goals, 10 assists) than any other Premier League player this season. He is priced at 2/5 to be named in the squad. Ivan Toney, despite netting against Belgium, misses out on the stats-driven 23.
After reaching the final at Euro 2020, England will be looking to go one step further and win it in Germany. They are the current favourites with BetMGM, priced at 3/1.
Goalkeepers:
Jordan Pickford
- Only David Raya (9) has more clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Everton’s goalkeeper (8).
- Has created four chances in the Premier League this season, the most of any goalkeeper.
- Completed 298 long passes in the Premier League this season, more than any other player.
Aaron Ramsdale
- Since making his Arsenal debut in September 2021, no English goalkeeper has kept more Premier League clean sheets than Ramsdale (28).
- Only David de Gea (17) kept more Premier League clean sheets last season than Aaron Ramsdale (14).
Nick Pope
- According to Opta's xGoT conceded model, Newcastle’s number one prevented 4.9 goals in the UEFA Champions League group stage this season (9.9 xGoT conceded, 5 conceded), the best tally of any goalkeeper in the group stage.
- Among goalkeepers to face 50+ shots on target in the Premier League this season, only Alisson has a better save percentage than Pope (73.6%).
Defenders:
Kyle Walker
- Manchester City’s right back has been involved in 113 build-up sequences that have led to a shot in the Premier League this season, the most of any defender.
- Walker has completed 933 passes in the opposition half in the Premier League this season, the most of any defender.
Luke Shaw
- In his 27 starts for England, Shaw has had a hand in 11 goals from left-back (3 goals, 8 assists).
- Across the last four seasons, only two English defenders have more assists in all competitions for Premier League teams than Luke Shaw (18).
Harry Maguire
- Since the start of last season, Manchester United have won 23 of the 32 Premier League matches Maguire has played (72%), compared to just 15 of the 34 he hasn't featured in (44%).
- Manchester United’s centre half has made three headed clearances per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, the second-best ratio of any English player (min. 450 minutes)
John Stones
- Among players to attempt 500+ passes, Stones has the best passing accuracy (93.2%) of any English player in the Premier League this season.
- Manchester City’s centre half has only ended on the losing side in three of his last 49 Premier League appearances; indeed, since the start of last season, he has the second-best win rate of any Englishman with 10+ games in that time (76%, P37 W28), behind teammate Jack Grealish (82%).
Trent Alexander-Arnold
- Alexander-Arnold is creating 2.9 chances per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, the best ratio of any English player.
- Trent Alexander-Arnold has played, on average, 12 passes into the opposition penalty area per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, the most of any defender
Ben White
- The only English defender with more Premier League assists this season than White (4) is Kieran Trippier (10).
- Since the start of last season, the only Premier League defenders with more goal involvements than White (4 goals, 9 assists) are Kieran Trippier (19) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (17).
Kieran Trippier
- No player has more assists in the Premier League this season than Newcastle’s right back (10).
- Kieran Trippier has completed the most open play crosses in the Premier League this season (28).
Lewis Dunk
- Only Rodri has completed more passes in the Premier League this season than Brighton’s Lewis Dunk (2,326).
- He has carried the ball 5,707 metres in the Premier League this season, the fifth furthest distance of any player.
Midfielders:
Jude Bellingham
- Only Harry Kane (31) has scored more goals in Europe's big-five leagues this season among Englishmen than Jude Bellingham (16).
- The Real Madrid star is the only player in this season's UEFA Champions League with both 4+ goals and 4+ assists (4 goals, 4 assists).
- He is the youngest player in Europe's top-10 leagues this season to score more than 10 goals (16).
Declan Rice
- Rice has completed 954 passes in the opposition half in the Premier League this season, the third-most of any player and most of any English player.
- He has carried the ball further than any other Premier League midfielder this season (6,320 metres).
- Arsenal’s talisman has completed 527 passes in the final third of the pitch in the Premier League this season - only four players have completed more.
James Maddison
- Only Trent Alexander-Arnold (2.9) is creating more chances per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season among Englishmen than James Maddison (2.7).
- Spurs’ attacking midfielder has been involved in 11 goals in just 18 Premier League appearances this season (4 goals, 7 assists).
- Only four players (min 500 minutes) have played more passes into the opposition box per 90 minutes than Maddison in the Premier League this season (10.3).
Conor Gallagher
- Gallagher is one of only two English players to have made 30+ tackles, created 30+ chances, made 30+ interceptions, had 30+ touches in the opposition box, had 30+ shots & won 30+ duels in the Premier League this season.
- He has won possession 34 times in the final third in the Premier League this season, the most of any player.
- No Chelsea player has created more chances in all competitions this season than Conor Gallagher (55).
Ross Barkley
- Since the start of December 2023, Barkley is the only player in the Premier League to have 30+ shots (40), create 30+ chances (32), complete 30+ dribbles (44) and make 30+ tackles (31).
- Only two players have more secondary assists in the Premier League this season than Ross Barkley (six).
- He is the only Englishman to complete 50+ dribbles in the Premier League this season (54).
Forwards:
Harry Kane
- The Bayern Munich Forward has scored 31 league goals this season, seven more than any other player in Europe's big-five leagues.
- He has scored four hat-tricks in the Bundesliga this season, twice as many as any player has scored across Europe's big-five leagues.
- Scored 37 goals in all competitions this season, 15 more than any other Englishman across Europe's big-five leagues.
Phil Foden
- Foden has scored 18 goals in all competitions this season, his best scoring season at Manchester City. He also has 10 assists, with only two English players having more goals & assists combined than Foden (28) this season, among Premier League players.
- Only three players have created more chances in open play in the Premier League this season than Phil Foden (50).
- He has had the most shots following a ball carry in the Premier League this season (31), while no player has created more chances following a ball carry than he has (22).
Bukayo Saka
- The Arsenal Forward has been involved in 29 goals in all competitions this season (16 goals, 13 assists) - among Premier League players, only three have more goals and assists combined than Saka.
- Only three players have created more chances than Saka in the Premier League this season (68).
- He has started 36 unique open play sequences that have led to a shot in the Premier League this season, the joint most of any player.
Jack Grealish
- The Manchester City midfielder is creating 2.6 chances in open play per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, the best ratio of any player this season (min. 500 minutes).
- Only five players created more chances in open play during the UEFA Champions League group stages than Grealish (12).
- No player (min. 500 minutes) has won more fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season than him (3.5), while Grealish has won the most fouls in the final third per 90 mins of any player (1.7).
Anthony Gordon
- The Newcastle attacker has been involved in 15 goals in all competitions this season (10 goals, 5 assists), with only Alexander Isak having a hand in more (16).
- Only one player has scored more goals following a ball carry in the Premier League this season than Gordon (4 goals).
- He has carried the ball 4,796 metres in the Premier League this season, with only three wingers carrying the ball further.
Cole Palmer
- The Chelsea Forward has been involved in 19 Premier League goals this season (11 goals, 8 assists), the most of any player currently aged 21 or younger.
- He leads all Chelsea players in all competitions this season for goals (14), assists (12), shots attempted (93) and chances created in open play (51).
- Only five Premier League players have been involved in more goals in all competitions this season than Palmer (16 goals, 12 assists).
Ollie Watkins
- Aston Villa’s Forward has more goals and assists combined (16 goals, 10 assists) than any other Premier League player this season.
- He has been involved in 26 open play sequences leading to a goal in the Premier League this season, four more than any other player in the division.
- He has assisted six goals following a ball carry in the Premier League this season, two more than any other player.
All statistics provided by BetMGM. Visit betmgm.co.uk 18+ BeGambleAware.org
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