EMISSIONS from two proposed Scottish oil and gas projects would cause so many heat deaths it would be equivalent to killing more people than live in Inverness, according to new analysis.
Rosebank and Jackdaw, which are being considered for approval by the UK Government, would emit enough carbon to result in 65,495 excess deaths globally, Oxfam has said.
The charity used the mortality cost of carbon formula, which estimates the number of excess deaths linked to CO2 output.
This is based on predicted lifetime emissions of 254,000,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide by Shell’s proposed Rosebank oil and gas field off Shetland and Equinor’s Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea, which would pump 35,800,000 tonnes into the atmosphere.
The total figure is greater than Inverness’s population of 63,000 and the researchers said excess deaths would be spread globally over a span of decades.
But the findings underline campaigners’ growing concerns about the health effects of climate change, with more than 2700 excess deaths attributed to heatwaves in England and Wales earlier this year.
Katherine May, Head of Oxfam Scotland, said: “We’re seeing raging wildfires, record-breaking temperatures and devastating droughts around the world. Against that backdrop, approving Jackdaw and Rosebank could be deadly and the consequences could reverberate for generations to come.
“More drilling is being presented as a cure for high energy bills, but it’s the wrong medicine. It would leave us even more dependent on the volatile global fossil fuel markets that have already pushed up costs. The real answer is investment in affordable renewable energy and a fair transition that supports workers and communities.
“Rosebank is a defining test of the UK Government’s climate credibility. The Scottish Government must also be willing to stand up for what it knows is right, however politically difficult, or risk leaving a lasting stain on its own climate record.”
The UK Government is yet to rule on whether the projects can go ahead but Andy Burnham has signalled he is open to the idea.
In a recent call with Donald Trump, the Prime Minister told the US president that he “can't ignore” the “resource there” in the North Sea.
In their 2024 manifesto, Labour promised not to issue new oil and gas licences but said existing ones, like that issued to Rosebank, would be honoured.
Ed Miliband, the former energy secretary who has since been moved to lead the Foreign Office, previously described the decision to licence Rosebank as “climate vandalism”.
Dr. Sandy Robertson, a consultant in adult and paediatric emergency medicine at the Victoria Hospital’s A&E department in Kirkcaldy, Fife, said extreme heat was already putting greater strain on the NHS.
The medic said: “The effects of climate change are already harming your health. If we don’t act now to tackle the underlying cause, burning fossil fuels, more of us will experience significant climate-related ill health in the future.
“The heatwaves we have experienced this summer have made emergency departments across the country busier than in the depths of winter. There were 2877 excess deaths related to heat in May and June in the UK alone, with patients suffering heart attacks, strokes and flares of asthma and COPD. The heat has also caused operations to be cancelled and MRI scanners to fail. Staff have had to endure overheated working conditions, putting their own health at risk.
“By acting now to ensure that fossil fuels remain in the ground and ensuring a just and swift societal decarbonisation, we can protect our health now and reduce the impacts in the future.”
Suzi Shingler, campaign manager at StopRosebank added: "As wildfires tear through the UK and Europe, the last thing this government should be doing is approving a massive new oil field that will pour more fuel on the fire.
"The case for Rosebank's approval has completely collapsed. It won't lower bills, it won't deliver meaningful energy security and – once drilled – Rosebank's oil will belong to private companies and sold overseas. What it will do is lock in decades more climate pollution while oil giants pocket the profits.
"This is a defining test for Burnham's government. It can turn a blind eye to the destruction caused by fires and cave into the fossil fuel lobby, or show real leadership by finally rejecting Rosebank and backing the clean energy future that people across Britain need."
A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: "The clean energy transition is the economic opportunity of the 21st century. Since July 2024 we've seen £100 billion of private investment announced into clean energy and secured enough clean, homegrown power for the equivalent of 23 million homes.
"We are clear that oil and gas will continue to play an important role in our energy system for decades to come, alongside renewables, nuclear and other low-carbon technologies.
“Our focus is on providing stability and supporting North Sea workers and communities as they continue to make a vital contribution to the UK’s economy.”
Shell and Equinor were approached for comment.
