After an upset in the first of three crunch votes that could lead to Romania veering towards a more anti-EU, pro-Russian stance, the EU and Nato member state returns to the polls on Sunday for a parliamentary ballot followed, on 8 December, by a presidential runoff.
The votes will be closely watched not least in Brussels, which does not want another disruptive, sovereignist influence in the region alongside Hungary and Slovakia, and among western allies, which Bucharest has reliably backed against Moscow.
Romania shares a 400-mile border with Ukraine and is considered to play a key strategic role, hosting a big Nato military base, donating a Patriot air defence battery and providing a vital transit route for millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain.
Who is running for president and who might win?
The race to replace the outgoing president, Klaus Iohannis, produced an early shock when both pre-election frontrunners, including the centre-left prime minister, were knocked out in the first round, which was won by a little-known far right, Russia-friendly independent.
Călin Georgescu, 62, an ultranationalist who has praised Vladimir Putin as “a man who loves his country” and was polling at 5% just before the vote, finished first on 22.9%, with Elena Lasconi, of the liberal-progressive Save Romania Union (USR), second on 19.2%.
The prime minister, Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democrats (PSD), and Nicolae Ciucă, of the centre-right National Liberal party (PNL) – both members of the outgoing coalition government – were beaten, as was George Simion of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR).
Georgescu, a sustainable development and toxic waste expert who once worked for the UN and won prizes for pro-European engagement, has more recently criticised the EU, claimed Nato would never help Romania and called for an end to the war in Ukraine.
He has also denied the existence of Covid-19, declared that Jesus Christ is “the only true science”, described two second world war-era Romanian fascists as “national heroes” and explained that Romania is not up to foreign affairs and should rely on “Russian wisdom”.
Up against Georgescu, whose under-the-radar campaign was boosted by a hugely effective TikTok campaign that experts have said could indicate Russian interference, is Lasconi, a well-known former war reporter and TV news presenter.
Since entering politics the USR leader has twice been elected mayor of a small town. She is socially conservative – she voted against same-sex marriage – but is pro-EU and believes in boosting defence spending, helping Ukraine and fighting Russian influence.
As the first round results showed, polls are unreliable in Romania. The PNL has called on its voters to back Lasconi and few analysts think Georgescu can win in a country that has avoided populist nationalism since rejecting communism in 1989 – but surprises happen.
What’s likely to happen in the parliamentary poll?
The main question is whether the first-round presidential result will have a knock-on effect on the parliamentary ballot, with voters confirming their anti-establishment sentiment – or taking fright and heading back to mainstream parties.
Ciolacu will lead the centre-left PSD into the elections but has announced he will stand down as party leader afterwards. The centre-right PNL, meanwhile, ended its alliance with the social democrats in October and has pledged not to enter a future coalition with them.
Ciolacu, for his part, has ruled out any kind of alliance with the far-right AUR, and Lasconi’s USR will not work with the PSD. Latest polling averages (for what they’re worth) suggest PSD is on course to win with about 30% of the vote, followed by Simion’s AUR on about 21%, Lasconi’s USR on 17% and PNL on about 14%.
If those projections are anything like accurate, the PSD and PNL would (assuming they can overcome their differences) still need the support of a smaller third party, potentially the UDMR that represents Romania’s Hungarian minority, to secure a parliamentary majority.
But even though he has no party, Georgescu’s victory could give far-right parties an electoral boost and make a new coalition hard to form, with AUR and another far-right party, the MEP Diana Șoșoacă’s SOS Romania, potentially on course to win a third or more of parliamentary seats.
Retaining control of parliament would be important for Romania’s mainstream and pro-western forces to serve as a counterbalance to Georgescu if he does become president.
What are the issues and how does the system work?
Romania’s voters are angry. First among their concerns is the high cost of living: the Black Sea country has the EU’s biggest share of people at risk of poverty, as well as the bloc’s highest inflation rate and largest budget deficit, at 8% of economic outlook.
The country’s crumbling infrastructure and ailing health service are equally big issues. The analyst Valentin Naumescu said Georgescu’s win reflected “a desire for a revenge vote, a protest vote, by people with many frustrations, with revolt, anger towards the system”.
The war in Ukraine is also a major topic, especially for far-right voters who strongly object to Romania’s continued backing of Kyiv, plans to increase national defence spending and ever-more significant position on Nato’s eastern flank.
Parliament’s 330 members are elected by proportional representation in 43 constituencies, with some seats reserved for national minorities. Crucially, parties must clear a threshold of 5% of total votes cast to win representation.
In the previous 2020 election, only five parties cleared that hurdle. If the same pattern repeats itself, 15% or 20% of seats in parliament could be redistributed to those that do pass 5%, significantly affecting the result by boosting the larger parties’ scores.
Romania’s president has a semi-executive role with significant decision-making powers over national security, foreign policy and judicial appointments, and also represents the country on the international stage.
