Afternoon summary
Rishi Sunak has hinted that there could be further cuts in national insurance rates in next week’s budget because it allowed Westminster to help workers in Scotland hit by Holyrood’s income tax rises. (See 3.49pm.) But, speaking at the Scottish Conservative conference in Aberdeen, he suggested the government was unlikely to extend the windfall tax on energy profits, even though this option is reportedly being considered. (See 3.06pm.)
Sunak hints at further cuts to national insurance in budget next week
Rishi Sunak has hinted there could be further cuts in national insurance rates in next week’s budget because it allowed Westminster to help workers in Scotland hit by Holyrood’s income tax rises.
The prime minister told reporters in Aberdeen he was “very conscious” that he wanted to make life easier for people across the UK while the Scottish National party government at Holyrood wanted “to make life harder”.
Sunak said Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, had been pressing the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to cut national insurance again in next week’s budget. “For the very reasons outlined, I press hard that it is national insurance as opposed to income tax,” Jack said.
In a signal that tax policy will also be a key general election battleground in Scotland, Sunak said the UK government’s cut of 2p in national insurance rates in January helped workers in Scotland while ministers in Edinburgh were raising income tax for everyone earning above £28,850 from April.
That national insurance reduction was a “significant tax cut worth £450 for someone on average earnings of £35,000,” Sunak said. He went on:
I believe in a country and a society where hard work is rewarded. That’s something that’s really important to me.
The prime minister was asked whether it was fair for Scottish employees if the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, cut income rates in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, since that decision would simply widen the tax gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK. He replied:
It’s also important to us to be a government that delivers for people in every part of the United Kingdom. And I’m very conscious that, whilst the SNP is making life harder for hardworking people by putting their taxes up, I want to make life easier for people.
It is a union tax cut. It’s a tax cut for everyone in work and the contrast between what we’re doing and what the SNP government is doing could not be starker.
The SNP has described Rishi Sunak’s speech as a “blink and you’d miss it” affair. In a new release using this label, Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, said:
The Tories have trashed the UK economy, slashed Scotland’s budget and sent the cost of living soaring. Rishi Sunak should have used his flying visit to apologise to families across Scotland who are skint and scunnered as a result of his government’s appalling record of failure.
With a general election in sight, voting SNP is the way to make Scotland Tory-free at this election - and the way to get rid of unelected Tory governments for good with independence.
Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, accused the Tories of “crashing the economy and expecting the north to pay for it” at the Conference of the North in Leeds.
She said the government had “never followed through” on their commitment to levelling up. “They’re all talk with nothing to show for it.”
Speaking about the north, Rayner said: “We don’t want to be on our knees asking for something.”
Asked by an audience member about local authority funding, she also reiterated a pledge to provide more long-term funding to local councils and ending the “Dragon’s Den approach” where councils bid for small pots of money.
Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, is asking the questions during Sunak’s Q&A. He asks about the policing of protests.
Sunak says recent events have been concerning: MPs having their homes surrounded, council meetings being disrupted, antisemitic tropes being beamed on parliament, and the Commons changing procedural rules because of safety fears. He goes on:
It’s really concerning. What we’ve been seeing over the past few weeks or
There is a minority of people who are trying to undermine our values. I don’t think that’s acceptable …
Of course, people have a right to protest, but that has to be done respectfully, and peacefully. Sadly, too many of the things we’ve seen recently have crossed the line.
Sunak says he plans to say more on this topic later today.
Rishi Sunak is now doing a Q&A at the Scottish Conservative party conference.
He says there is a clear contrast between the SNP government, which is putting taxes up, and the UK government which is delivering “one of the biggest tax cuts for workers that we’ve seen in recent time”.
(As usual, Sunak does not mention the fact that the tax cuts that came into force this year are far smaller than the cumulative real-terms tax increases that have taken effect since 2019.)
And Sunak makes the point that Scottish people will benefit from the cut in national insurance because “as Alister [Jack, the Scottish secretary] is always keen to remind the chancellor, national insurance is a UK-wide tax”.
There has been a lot of speculation that the chancellor will cut national insurance by 1p in the pound in the budget. Sunak’s comments could be a hint that the speculation is correct.
Updated
Sunak says poll putting Tory support at 15% in Scotland 'not reflective of what we're hearing on ground'
Rishi Sunak fielded 16 minutes of questions from a group of 20 Scottish political journalists before his conference speech, in marked contrast to the chaotic and angry scenes at last year’s event when reporters rebelled against attempts by Downing Street officials to hand-pick just six newspaper reporters to meet and interview him.
The Sun asked Sunak whether he would like to congratulate Humza Yousaf, the Scottish National party leader and first minister, on the news that he and his wife Nadia El-Nakla are expecting their first child. (See 2.46pm.) The Sun said the latest opinion poll, which puts the Scottish Tories on 15% for Westminster voting intention, suggested the child would grow up “in a Tory-free Scotland”.
Sunak laughed. He said Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, had texted his and Sunak’s congratulations to Yousaf earlier on Friday on the “wonderful news” about the pregnancy.
On the Survation poll’s 15% finding, Sunak said:
[This] is just not reflective of what we’re hearing on the ground, the recent success that we’re having in council byelections. And I think come the election, because that’s ultimately the only one that matters, I think we expect to gain when it comes to Scotland. And that’s because our messages resonate.
Updated
Sunak defends accepting controversial air travel donations
Questioned further by reporters in Aberdeen, Rishi Sunak refused to say whether the Tories would return a donation of £38,500 in kind from a medical devices entrepreneur, Akhil Tripathi, who is reportedly being sued by investors, if the allegations against him are upheld.
Tripathi, who has denied all the allegations, donated flights to Sunak to attend last year’s Scottish Conservative conference in Glasgow last April and to the Welsh Conservative conference the same day.
Sunak later updated his register of interests amid questions about the accuracy of original entries in a row which added to the complaints about the prime minister’s use of private helicopters and jets for party business.
Sunak said:
All the donations to the Conservative party are transparently declared, as of course they should be, and they’re all in line with the established processes and regulations that govern those things.
Sunak hints government unlikely to extend windfall tax on energy companies in budget
Rishi Sunak has refused to comment on reports from Bloomberg that the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is considering extending the windfall tax on energy profits in next week’s budget. Yet he hinted it was highly unlikely by insisting the Tories were “the only major party that has backed the North Sea oil and gas industry”.
Speaking to reporters in Aberdeen before his speech to the Scottish Conservative conference, Sunak said no prime minister or chancellor would ever comment on speculation about a budget. He said:
I’m sure you and everyone else will understand why it wouldn’t be appropriate for me to comment on any speculation or fiscal policy ahead of the budget.
But what I can say is that we have consistently been the only major party that has backed the North Sea oil and gas industry, and you can see that most recently with the move to annual licensing, which we’re legislating for, opposed by everybody else. And the reason we’re doing that is because our country is going to need all gas for decades to come. And my view and our government’s view is that it’s right to get that from here at home.
Sunak accuses SNP of putting 'political posturing' above interests of Scots
Sunak says the SNP “would take Scotland back literally 300 years” (before the Acts of Union).
He says they have been in power in Holyrood since before the invention of the smartphone. But their record is poor, he claims.
If you want to see better schools, more economic growth, safer streets, and a government that works for the whole of Scotland, then every day that the SNP remain in power is a wasted day.
He goes on:
Their obsession with tearing Scotland out of the United Kingdom is all consuming and it simply crowds out everything else.
In fact, they’re so obsessed with difference for different sake, that when we banned XL bullies, they said no, we’ll go our own way.
This political posturing has tragic consequences. And it just shows you that they put division above even the safety of our streets.
This passage is confusing, because the Scottish government has broadly adopted the UK government’s approach.
Sunak also accuses the SNP of not being able to answer basic questions about independence.
Astonishingly, after even 16 different papers on independent independence, they still can’t answer the basic questions. What’s the currency going to be? What happens to pensions? What happens to trade?it’s their obsession with independence that is holding Scotland back.
Sunak claims Tories only party in Scotland committed to protecting oil and gas industry
Rishi Sunak is now giving his speech to the Scottish Conservative party’s conference in Aberdeen.
He defends the party’s record. He says his party blocked the SNP’s gender recognition (reform) bill and it was Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, who vetoed it.
The UK govenrment is cutting taxes, he says. But the SNP government is putting up taxes for anyone earning more than £28,000 a year.
And he claims the Conservatives are the only party defending the oil and gas industry.
It’s only the Scottish conservatives who are defending our energy security and the thousands of jobs here in the north-east that depend on the oil and gas sector. A vote for anyone else is a vote to shut down this industry.
As for Labour, it says so much about them that they don’t want to ban oil and gas – they just want to ban British oil and gas, with a ban on North sea exploration.
It shows so clearly that their values are not our country’s values, that they put virtue signalling ahead of our nation’s energy security.
Humza Yousaf says he and his wife expecting baby this summer
Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, has announced he and his wife are expecting a baby this summer, saying they are “delighted” to be adding to their family, PA Media reports. PA says:
Yousaf said his wife Nadia El-Nakla is due to give birth in July.
It will be the first time a Scottish first minister has had a child while in office.
The couple already have two children – their daughter Amal is four and Mr Yousaf is stepfather to 14-year-old Maya.
Yousaf has previously spoken publicly about miscarriages the couple have suffered.
As he spoke about his desire to improve miscarriage care last September, he revealed he and El-Nakla have lost four pregnancies – “two before our daughter was born and another two after”.
Announcing his wife is expecting again today, he thanked staff at the early pregnancy unit at Ninewells Hospital in Dundee for the “wonderful support” they have provided.
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has said that Labour was right to apologise to the people of Rochdale for what happened in the byelection. Speaking in a press conference in Leeds at the Convention of the North event, he said:
Labour has let the people of Rochdale down because it didn’t give them a good enough choice at the election held yesterday.
It’s right that the leader of the party has apologised to the people of Rochdale but we will now work with him and his team to make sure there is some reflection on what has happened, some honesty, so that we can all come together and work together to regain the trust of the people of Rochdale, and that is exactly what we will do working with the leader of Rochdale borough council.
Sunak fails to deny government considering abolishing non-dom status in budget
In his TV clip for broadcasters Rishi Sunak refused to comment on reports saying the government is considering lifting Labour’s plan to abolish non-dom status as a means of raising revenue to fund a general tax cut in the budget.
Sunak said it would not be appropriate to comment on tax matters ahead of a budget.
This counts as a non-denial, because budget “purdah” has never stopped the government ruling out potential tax increases ahead of a budget if it wants to.
Asked about the report in an interview on Sky News this morning, Ellie Reeves, the party’s deputy national campaign coordinator (and sister of Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor), said that if the Treasury did adopt the Labour plan, it would be further proof the government was “out of ideas after 14 years”.
She said the government had already borrowed other Labour ideas, like the windfall tax on energy companies and the dental recovery plan.
Sunak insists Rwanda policy 'worthwhile investment' despite NAO saying it could cost £1.8m per asylum seeker
Rishi Sunak’s flagship plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda will cost taxpayers £1.8m for each of the first 300 people the government deports to Kigali, the National Audit Office has revealed. The NAO report is here, and here is Rajeev Syal’s story.
In his broadcast clip, Rishi Sunak was asked if he still thought the Rwanda deportation policy was a good deal in the light of what the NAO said about how much it would cost. Sunak insisted it was a “worthwhile investment”. He said:
The current situation is unsustainable and unfair. Taxpayers are already forking out millions of pounds a day to house illegal migrants in hotels across the country. That’s not right. And that’s why I made stopping the boats one of my priorities.
I’m pleased that we’ve made progress last year, the numbers were down by a third. That’s never happened before, shows that the plans are working. But in order to fully resolve this issue, we need to have a deterrent, we need to be able to say if you come here illegally, you won’t be able to stay, we can remove you to a safe country.
That’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important. It’s a worthwhile investment, and I’m determined to see it through.
Updated
Sunak says Rochdale byelection 'one of most divisive in recent times'
Rishi Sunak has described the Rochdale byelection as “one of the most divisive in recent times” and claimed he was pleased his party at last ran a positive campaign.
Speaking in Scotland, where he will be addressing the Scottish Conservative party’s conference in Aberdeen this afternoon, Sunak said:
It was very concerning to see the reports of intimidation through the byelection, and by all accounts one of the most divisive campaigns that we’ve seen in recent times.
I’m pleased the Conservative party was the only party to run a really positive campaign focused on local issues with a great local candidate, Paul Ellison.
Starmer apologises to voters for Rochdale result, but says he was right to disown Labour's candidate
Keir Starmer has restated Labour’s apology to the people of Rochdale for what happened in the byelection. But, in a clip for broadcasters, he sought to extract a positive message from the saga, suggesting that his decision to disown Azhar Ali, the candidate, over antisemitism at a point where it was too late to replace him showed his determination to transform the party.
Starmer said:
Galloway only won because Labour didn’t stand a candidate.
I regret that we had to withdraw candidate and apologise to voters in Rochdale.
But I took that decision. It was the right decision. And when I say I changed the Labour party, I mean it.
Obviously we will put a first class candidate, a unifier, before the voters in Rochdale, or the general election.
Updated
According to Sam Coates on Sky News, George Galloway will be introduced by Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, and David Davis, the Conservative former Brexit secretary, when he takes his seat in the Commons next week.
Teaching unions criticise government's advice to pay review body for salaries in 2024-25
Teaching unions in England have been angered by the Department for Education’s evidence to the independent School Teachers Review Body (STRB), ahead of the body’s pay recommendations for 2024-25.
The DfE has not named a percentage increase that it would support, and instead asked the STRB that the pay award be “sustainable” in the light of school finances - implying that schools can’t expect anything in the coming budget.
The DfE’s case is that pay increased by 5% per cent for most teachers in 2022 and a further 6.5% last year. It also argues that a forecast rise in unemployment “is expected to ease the level of vacancies across the private and public sector, supporting recruitment and retention” - in other words, that fewer teachers will leave the profession if unemployment is higher elsewhere in the economy.
Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union, said:
The government evidence talks about teacher pay awards returning to a ‘more sustainable’ level – but it is the damage to education caused by government policy that is not sustainable. The recruitment and retention crisis, driven by pay cuts and excessive workload within an environment of funding shortages, is causing severe damage not just to teachers and school leaders but to the pupils and communities they serve.
We need a fully funded, major correction to teacher pay to repair the damage to teacher living standards and to the competitive position of teaching, and to protect our education service.
The NEU is opening on Saturday a preliminary ballot of teachers members in England calling for a fully-funded above inflation pay increase. This latest announcement from government will anger our members. Strike action is a last resort but it will be an option our members will seriously consider.
Updated
Azhar Ali was selected as Labour’s candidate in Rochdale (before he was disowned) after narrowly beating Paul Waugh in the selection contest. Waugh is a prominent political journalist who gave up his job as the i’s chief political commentator to try to become Labour MP for his home town, and he must have a good chance of being selected as Labour’s candidate for the general election.
In a column for the i, which blames Ali for Labour’s defeat, Waugh argues that his town won’t benefit from having George Galloway, with his “bilious brand of divisive politics”, as its MP. He says:
The sign that greets everyone coming from the M62 declares “Rochdale – birthplace of co-operation”, highlighting that it was here in 1844 that a group of weavers got together to form a co-op, the start of what became a global movement for social justice.
But Galloway has always preferred confrontation to co-operation, bombast to bread and butter issues. His previous election and by-election campaigns have seen appalling abuse directed at Labour women like Naz Shah in Bradford and Kim Leadbeater in Batley and Spen.
He arrives in a blaze of noise and publicity, but often doesn’t stick around. Sooner or later, people realise it’s all about him, not them. Like all circuses, he’ll leave this town eventually too, the question is how much damage he leaves in his wake.
Many people of all backgrounds are appalled by the death toll of women and children in Gaza in Israeli attacks. But when Galloway explained his priorities for Parliament, he actually admitted in one interview that if he got to the Commons he would speak about Gaza first, then Rochdale “second”.
Yet even those who care passionately about Gaza actually have more local concerns. When I canvassed for Labour, before Azhar Ali was disowned, it was the cost of living, the state of the NHS, town centre crime and the shortage of affordable housing that were raised most often on the doorstep.
Updated
A reader asks:
Any idea @AndrewSparrow on what basis Prof Sir John Curtice says “although most Labour supporters don’t take a side in the current conflict in the Middle East”?
This is a reference to what Curtice said on BBC Breakfast this morning. (See 8.42pm.) He seemed to be referring to a polling question that asks people if they sympathise more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians in the Middle East conflict. As this YouGov chart, with data going back to 2019, shows, amongst the public at large there is more sympathy for the Palestinians than for the Israelis, but generally there are even more people who say they sympathise with neither side, or who don’t have an answer.
Amongst Labour supporters, there is much more support for the Palestinians than there is for the Israelis. The chart below shows data for this group from a survey on 15 January. It suggests 56% of them do have a view (46% pro-Palestinians, 9% pro-Israelis), but Curtice was presumably trying to make the point that a sizeable chunk of Labour supporters don’t take sides. Or perhaps he has seen more recent or alternative data.
Neal Lawson, director of Compass, the leftwing group committed to more pluralistic politics, says the Rochdale result suggests Labour has been taking its supporters for granted.
We don’t know if Rochdale is a blip or part of a more seismic trend in terms of the Muslim community’s support for Labour. But our first past the post voting system tends to disguise tectonic shifts in voting behaviours, as we’ve seen in Scotland and then the red wall.
FPTP encourages Labour to take its big blocks of voters for granted, in the presumption that they have nowhere else to go. The SNP, then Ukip/Brexit and via them the Tories, and now Galloway have proven to be alternatives. Labour MPs and candidates in seats with big Muslim votes will be nervous today. People don’t like being taken for granted.
Richard Tice, the Reform UK leader, has denied George Galloway’s claim that he invited Galloway to join his party (see 6.44am), Harry Cole from the Sun reports.
Tice: “I genuinely have no idea what Mr Galloway is referring to. It is clearly an attempt to distract attention away from the appalling way that this by election in Rochdale has been conducted”
Tice: “I genuinely have no idea what Mr Galloway is referring to. It is clearly an attempt to distract attention away from the appalling way that this by election in Rochdale has been conducted” https://t.co/1hEwhOvodj
— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) March 1, 2024
Galloway says he would 'love to crush the Labour party'
Sky News has been showing footage of an interview that George Galloway did with Sam Coates in the early hours this morning after the result of the byelection was declared at the count. Here are the main points.
Galloway said he would “love the crush the Labour party”. He said:
I’d love to crush the Labour party. I see it as my mission in life.
I don’t know if Sky will allow me to quote Malcolm X. But the difference between the wolf and the fox is this. The wolf is quite clear about its intentions. As it comes towards you, you know what it’s going to do. The fox on the other hand looks like it’s smiling, looks like it’s friendly.
That’s the difference between the Conservative party and the Labour party. And so my ire against the Labour party is for precisely that reason. The Tories don’t pretend to be friends of the people. The Labour party does.
He said he did not believe Keir Starmer was genuined committed to a ceasefire in Gaza. Asked if he thought Starmer genuinely wanted a ceasefire, Galloway replied:
If you believe that, I’ve got a bridge in London I could sell you going cheap. Nobody believes that. If he really did, he wouldn’t have wrecked the SNP motion in the house just a week or so ago. He would have backed the SNP’s motion. Or better he’d have called a debate himself and put his own motion down.
He didn’t do any of those things. He preferred to force the speaker into a monstrous manipulation of parliamentary conventions and cause the scenes that you saw. He’s a phoney. He’s doing everything that he can to protect Israel from the righteous wrath of the international community and the people of Britain.
He said he wanted the current state of Israel to be replaced by an enlarged, secular country, taking in Palestine, where Jews and Muslims could live together. He said:
If you’re really asking me what should be the final state of affairs in Israel and Palestine, well, my position is quite well known. I think there should be one democratic and secular state, between the river and the sea. And if I was doing their marketing, I’d call it the Holy Land.
Asked if that meant he did not want Israel to exist, he replied:
No state has a right to exist, not the Soviet Union, not Czechoslovakia, not the Zionist apartheid state of Israel. I believe that the best solution for everybody is, as it was in South Africa, freed from apartheid, a democratic state where white people and black people, Jews, Christians, Muslims, live as equal citizens under the law.
He said he would speak up for the Palestinian in parliament. Asked what he planned to do when he returned to the Commons, he said:
I’ll be using such parliamentary skills as I have acquired over the best part of 30 years, in six previous parliamentary terms. I’ll be using such gifts that God gave me as a speaker, as a debater.
And I’ll be speaking for millions of people who feel that they’re not being heard by the British political class, or the journalists for that matter, that their earnest feelings of anguish about what’s happening in Gaza is being ignored, or worse distorted into a kind of Islamophobic fervour which the political class, and much of the media, has been whipping up over the last few weeks.
Galloway's ally Chris Williamson provokes outrage by failing to condemn Hamas's massacre of Israelis on 7 October
In his Today programme interview Chris Williamson, George Galloway’s ally and deputy leader of the Workers Party of Britain, Galloway’s party, declined to condemn the Hamas massacre of Israelis on 7 October.
Asked by Mishal Husain to condemn those attacks, Williamson replied:
The two main parties have not called for a ceasefire. They’ve not condemned the Israeli regime’s activities. You can’t expect to live in a situation where a people have been oppressed for 75 years and not expect a reaction.
Asked if he was saying the attacks were understandable, Williamson replied:
What about the Palestinian people that have been massacred over 76 years now. Where is the media outrage at that? In international law oppressed peoples have an absolute right to armed resistance.
Husain said that did not cover killing innocent people, like children and the elderly. In response, Williamson claimed most of the innocent people killed on 7 October were killed by Israeli forces. Husain said the evidence did not show that, and she moved the discussion on as Williamson began to articulate a conspiracy theory about the Hamas massacre.
Husain also asked Williamson if he was happy about the fact that Galloway was endorsed by Nick Griffin, the former leader of the British National party. In a message on X yesterday, Griffin said:
If you follow me in #Rochdale, get out and vote for George Galloway today. He’s not perfect, but it’s the best way by far to stick two fingers up to the rotten political elite and their fake news media cronies.
Williamson replied:
If people want to endorse, you can’t spurn endorsement, or indeed control people who want to endorse a political party.
Husain said that Griffin said on his X feed he wanting to free Britain from Zionist control. She said if Williamson was uncomfortable with Griffin’s endorsement, he could say so. Williamson replied:
You’re trying to damn George Galloway and the Workers party by association. It’s up to people. If they want to endorse a political party, that’s entirely a matter for them. I’m not going to play those games.
Williamson claimed Galloway, himself and the Workers Party of Britain had “a long track record of standing up to racism and bigotry in all its forms’.
Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign coordinator, was interviewed immediately after Williamson. She said:
Can I just start by saying that I’m utterly appalled by Chris Williamson’s failure to condemn Hamas attacks on 7 October, and likewise his failure to distance his party from the endorsement of Nick Griffin.
Updated
Galloway's election 'dark day for Jewish community', says Board of Deputies
The Board of Deputies of British Jews has described the election of George Galloway as “a dark day for the Jewish community”. In a statement it said:
George Galloway is a demagogue and conspiracy theorist, who has brought the politics of division and hate to every place he has ever stood for Parliament. His election is a dark day for the Jewish community in this country, and for British politics in general. We believe he should be shunned as a pariah by all parliamentarians.
And the Campaign Against Antisemitism has said:
Given his historic inflammatory rhetoric and the current situation faced by the Jewish community in this country, we are extremely concerned by how [Galloway] may use the platform of the House of Commons in the remaining months of this parliament.”
Galloway has campaigned on behalf of Palestinians for all his politcal life, but he strongly denies being antisemitic.
Here is a Guardian graphic showing the Rochdale results.
Updated
Chris Williamson said this morning that George Galloway’s return to parliament next week would send shockwaves through the corridors of power. (See 8.59am.) In his analysis of the byelection result, my colleague Peter Walker explains why that is unlikely.
Galloway’s return to parliament comes only days after Rishi Sunak argued that “mob rule” had taken over British politics, a reference to regular pro-Palestine demonstrations and threats to MPs over the issue.
Expect some politicians, perhaps Suella Braverman, who has already claimed Islamists are “in charge”, to respond to Galloway’s win via the ruthless targeting of one demographic as another sign of shattered community cohesion.
The reality is perhaps less apocalyptic, if nonetheless messy. Galloway won in the same way in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005, and Bradford West in 2012. He served one term in each with minimal impact in parliament, the country more widely, or, his critics said, for his constituents.
Galloway will hope to arrive back in Westminster as the figurehead for Gaza. But he is too divisive and controversial a figure to have broad appeal, and past experience shows he much prefers campaigning to become an MP than the slightly more prosaic business of actually being one.
Peter’s article is here.
Experts play down suggestions Galloway's victory in Rochdale has wider political significance
Academics and commentators like Prof Sir John Curtice (see 8.42am) and Lewis Goodall (see 6.33am) have made brave attempts this morning to draw out some wider political implications from the results of the Rochdale byelection. But amongst the commentatriat the consensus seems to be that that the main takeaway is that there are no wider lessons from the result – or at least none that are significant.
This is from Keiran Pedley from the polling firm Ipsos.
The reason it’s hard to find a read across for Galloway’s win in Rochdale to national politics is because there isn’t one.
— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 1, 2024
The reason it’s hard to find a read across for Galloway’s win in Rochdale to national politics is because there isn’t one.
This is from James Johnson, a former No 10 pollster who now runs JL Partners.
Reasons I don’t think the Galloway win has lasting effects
— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) March 1, 2024
1️⃣ Unique set of candidates
2️⃣ By-election voters are different to General Election voters
3️⃣ Galloway has a highly personal vote, hard to replicate
4️⃣ Muslim vote is highest in very safe Labour seats
From @SkyNews pic.twitter.com/WkIyeZ48Yd
Reasons I don’t think the Galloway win has lasting effects
1️⃣ Unique set of candidates
2️⃣ By-election voters are different to General Election voters
3️⃣ Galloway has a highly personal vote, hard to replicate
4️⃣ Muslim vote is highest in very safe Labour seats
This is from Sam Freedman from Prospect magazine.
A by-election where over 60% of the vote goes to (effective) independents tells us nothing about the general election or really anything at all beyond the specific contest. There will be takes nevertheless.
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) March 1, 2024
A by-election where over 60% of the vote goes to (effective) independents tells us nothing about the general election or really anything at all beyond the specific contest. There will be takes nevertheless.
And this is from Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, who has written up his analysis of the significance of the result on a blog.
All by-election results need to be taken with a pinch of salt, but this one needs to be taken with a truckload. The immediate “what does this result mean?” questions are inevitable, but in my view the answer is very little. This by-election was bizarre beyond recognition; of the established parties, Labour and the Greens effectively disowned their candidates, the Liberal Democrats had their own local campaign controversy, the Reform candidate was a disgraced former Labour MP, and the Conservative candidate took a holiday midway through the campaign. All of these factors have contributed, to some extent, to Galloway winning and an inexperienced independent coming second …
On Labour, there are several questions to answer. The first, is that besides being a vocal voice in the House of Commons, what does Galloway’s victory actually mean for Labour? Personally, I don’t think Keir Starmer will be losing any sleep over this result. Indeed, all things considered, I don’t think Labour could have hoped for much from the result. Another question that will be posed will be “what would have happened if Labour selected a different candidate?” and I don’t think we can assume, based on these results, that a different Labour candidate who had been backed throughout the campaign would have just waltzed to an easy victory. A narrow Labour victory over Galloway, or even a defeat, with a different candidate, would have been far more humiliating than this one which Labour can effectively just write-off and move on from.
Galloway's ally Chris Williamson claims his victory will 'send shockwaves through corridors of power'
George Galloway does not seem to be morning broadcast interviews this morning, but Chris Williamson, the deputy leader of Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain, was on the Today programme speaking on his behalf.
Williamson, a former Labour MP who left the party after being suspended over allegations of antisemitism, claimed Galloway’s win would “send shockwaves through the corridors of power”. He said Galloway would use his platform in the Commons to speak up for the Palestinian people “against the genocidal Israel regime”.
George Galloway is probably the best orator in the world.
He’s now got a place in the corridors of power in Westminster, where the government and the official Opposition are effectively facilitating the genocide in Gaza. And so he will be able to speak truth to power.
Not just in Rochdale. the whole country was watching this result and, indeed, people around the world were watching this result. And it will send shockwaves through the corridors of power and give a huge boost to those insurgent political parties and groupings and independents who are looking to provide a genuine alternative to the political class who have completely failed.
Conservatives and Labour both did very badly in 'unique' Rochdale byelection, says John Curtice
Prof Sir John Curtice, the leading psephologist, delivered his verdict on the significance of the Rochdale byelection on BBC Breakfast this morning. Asked if he agreed with George Galloway’s claim that both main parties had been “spanked” (see 6.33am), he said that he did – although he also stressed that it was a unusual contest and Keir Starmed remained “well on course to win a general election.
Curtice said this was a “unique” byelection, making it harder than usual to draw wider conclusions from the result. He said:
[This was] a unique contest contested by a candidate with a unique ability to appeal to the Muslim population in a town that also has a past record of voting on local issues.
He said that the Tories suffered their biggest fall in vote share in a Labour seat in a byelection in this parliament. He said:
Frankly, here is another poor Conservative performance. The Conservative vote down by 19 points – it’s the biggest drop in the Conservative vote in a Labour-held seat in a byelection in this parliament …
There is no sign here of the electoral gloom that hangs over the Conservative party is in any way dissipated by Sir Keir Starmer’s difficulties.
He said Labour suffered its biggest drop in support in a post-war byelection in Rochdale. He said:
Of course, Mr Galloway does have a track record of doing well in constituencies with large Muslim populations, particularly at a time when there is particular concern amongst that community about events in the Middle East. In 2005, when he won Bethnal Green, it was the Iraq war. Now, it’s Sir Keir Starmer’s relatively, I emphasise relatively, uncritical reaction to Gaza that Galloway was firing at.
The truth is Labour’s vote was going to to down given that they disowned [their candidate]. But Labour’s vote literally collapsed. This is the biggest drop in Labour support in a post-war by election.
He said the result was likely to worry some Labour MPs, and that Starmer could come under pressure to change his policy on Gaza. He explained:
It does mean that Labour MPs who are representing constituencies with large Muslim populations who have been told that they may face candidates standing on a pro-Palestinian platform … will be looking to Sir Keir perhaps to toughen his stance on Israel in order to try to head that off …
Although the Labour party is well-insulated against a challenge in Muslim constituencies, because most of these seats that Labour represents have very large Labour majorities … although most Labour supporters don’t take a side in the current conflict in the Middle East, those who do, both Muslim and non-Muslim, are much more likely to support the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. That does raise a question for Sir Keir Starmer.
But Curtice said it was “unlikely” that any other candidates standing on a pro-Palestinian platform would be able to exploit the issue as successfully as Galloway.
He said Galloway was not the only candidate causing problems for the two main parties. He said:
[Rochdale] is a constituency with a past record of voting for a local champion who expressed discontent in the town. Previously it was Cyril Smith, the former Liberal MP, now of course since disgraced. Now we’re seeing David Tully, this time an independent candidate, seemingly being more effective at expressing the discontent of people in Rochdale. So it isn’t just Mr Galloway who’s spanked both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, it’s also Mr Tully as well.
Labour's Ellie Reeves rejects suggestions party needs to change its policy on Gaza in response to Rochdale defeat
In her Sky News interview Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign coordinator, rejected suggestions that the party needed to change its stance on Gaza in response to the byelection defeat. She said:
We’ve set out our position on Gaza and that was adopted by the Commons just the other week. We’ve said there should be an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, that the loss of life has been intolerable, there must be no ground offensive in Rafah, aid has to be ramped up into the region, and, importantly, that we need to find a two-state solution. What shouldn’t just be sort of empty words by politicians, but a political reality rather than an aspiration. A Labour government would work tirelessly to make sure that happens.
Asked if Labour would toughen its policy, making it more pro-Palestinian, Reeves replied:
We’ve set out our position. We’ve called for that immediate humanitarian ceasefire. That’s in line with international partners in Australia, New Zealand and Canada. And it’s something that we’re pushing hard for.
Updated
Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign coordinator, doing the media round on behalf of the party this morning. Appearing on Sky News this morning, she restated the apology to the people of Rochdale offered by the party this morning. (See 6.55am.)
Asked which candidate Labour wanted to win, she said that was a matter for voters in the constituency.
She said the party would now select a candidate for the general election able to unite people. Asked if she was confident Labour would win the seat back, she said the party was not complacent.
At the end of the interview Reeves was asked if she would like to offer her congratulations to George Galloway. She replied: “I think we’ll leave it there.”
On the Today programme this morning Allen Brett, a former Labour leader of Rochdale council, said he did not think the byelection “will have much effect nationally”. He would not say how he voted, it was not for George Galloway, he said. “I don’t think he’s for Rochdale, I think he’s for himself,” Brett said.
Brett said that he was impressed by the Dave Tully, the independent candidate who came second. “He’s a lovely fellow,” he said. He went on:
If he’d had a bit more professional advice to start with, I think he would have done even better. He did not even know that he could send everybody a leaflet via the post.
If Labour had had a proper candidate, Galloway would not have won, he said. He added:
I think locally the Labour party needs to ask why they rubbed this election.
Nimo Omer has a good overview of the Rochdale byelection result in her First Edition briefing. Here is an extract.
The mood in the room was mixed when the results came in. There were a lot of Galloway supporters both inside the room and outside. “Dozens of people were there for hours, practising their chants on a freezing cold night in Rochdale,” Josh [Halliday, the Guardian’s north of England correspondent] says – a microcosm of the zeal and vigour of Galloway’s supporters.
The deep divisions laid bare over the course of the campaign were palpable too: “As [Galloway] prepared to stand on the victory podium, I heard mutterings from other campaigners of ‘terrorist sympathiser’, ‘the people of Rochdale are thick’ and ‘woe to Rochdale’,” Josh says.
Galloway made it clear what he thinks his victory means for the Labour party: more losses in the coming general election. He wants to create a movement in towns and cities with similar profiles to Rochdale: “I think this victory tonight will spread far,” he said, adding that the win “could be the beginning of something new, something big”.
Despite the stunning landslide on Galloway’s side, Josh says it is important to keep perspective: “You’ve got to take this with a pinch of salt. This is a byelection, it’s got a lower turnout than a general election and also Labour has not put up a fight for the last two and a half weeks of the campaign.” Were Labour to actually stand in a general election, the results would likely be far closer, he adds, though Galloway could still win again.
And here is the full article.
Updated
Lewis Goodall from the News Agents podcast has posted a good thread on X about the significance of Galloway’s victory in Rochdale. It starts here.
What does the Galloway victory mean?
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) March 1, 2024
For the general election, very little. This was a unique by election and little is transferable. But it does change politics before the election and possibly tells us something about the shape of politics after it as well.
🧵 https://t.co/HXT7feY0nZ
What does the Galloway victory mean?
For the general election, very little. This was a unique by election and little is transferable. But it does change politics before the election and possibly tells us something about the shape of politics after it as well.
And here are some of his points.
More broadly, as Galloway’s election win will inspire and energise some on the left, it will incense the right. They will argue it proves some of their dark warnings about a rising radical Islamist party right. They’ll argue this is a portent of things to come.
But for now, this is mainly noise. In electoral terms, it won’t matter at all. Labour will probably win the seat back in the general. Most of his MPs loathe Galloway . Starmer will hope the ceasefire comes soon to take a little of the political pressure away.
There’s little doubt Starmer and Labour have been doing less well with Muslim voters than in the Corbyn years. That was true before Gaza and it’s become more pronounced since. Right now that isn’t a huge problem for Labour as their overall poll lead is so massive...
..but after an election and with the hard yards of governing begun, you can entirely see the circumstances where it becomes a problem. Poll lead vanishes and suddenly there are lots of seats in play like Rochdale where the Muslim vote isn’t massive but potentially pivotal.
The Tories meanwhile will at least be relieved that though their candidate performed abysmally Reform didn’t do much better. All eyes for them on Blackpool. But this is a story which is basically about Labour mismanagement. A complete car crash.
Momentum says Labour's defeat in Rochdale 'self-inflicted loss'
Momentum, the leftwing Labour group, has described the party’s defeat in Rochdale as a “self-inflicted loss”. A party spokesperson said:
This was a needless and self-inflicted loss for Labour.
First, Starmer’s utterly factional selection processes resulted in a candidate who was clearly unfit for office. Then the Labour Leadership tried to defend him as one of their own. Finally, Keir Starmer’s failure to stand with Gaza in its hour of need left the door open for George Galloway.
To avoid any more damaging repeats, Starmer should end the factional abuse of Labour’s selection processes and stand up for an immediate, permanent ceasefire in Gaze.
Nicholas Watt from Newsnight interviewed George Galloway as he was leaving the count. Galloway told him:
If you believe that Keir Starmer is genuinely seeking an end to the slaughter in Gaza, I’ve got a bridge in London that I could sell you.
Cry more, cry more. George Galloway gives me some advice as I encounter him at his Rochdale campaign HQ @BBCNewsnight pic.twitter.com/e6xQbPzajh
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) March 1, 2024
Labour apologises to Rochdale for byelection result, saying Galloway only won because it did not have proper candidate
Labour says George Galloway is “only interested in stoking fear and division”.
In a statement issued about the byelection result, the party apologised to the people of Rochdale for the fact that it did not have a proper candidate. (Azhar Ali, who was selected as Labour’s candidate, was disowned by the party after nominations closed because it was revealed that he had made antisemitic comments after the Hamas attack on Gaza. But it was too late to change nominations, and so he was listed as a Labour candidate on the ballot paper.) A Labour spokesperson said:
We deeply regret that the Labour party was unable to field a candidate in this byelection and apologise to the people of Rochdale. George Galloway only won because Labour did not stand.
Rochdale deserved the chance to vote for an MP that would bring communities together and deliver for working people. George Galloway is only interested in stoking fear and division. As an MP he will be a damaging force in our communities and public life.
The Labour party will quickly begin the process to select a new Labour candidate for the general election, and will be campaigning hard to deliver the representation and fresh start that Rochdale deserves.
Updated
At the count George Galloway dismissed complaints from Richard Tice, the Reform UK leader, about the result. (See 5.39am.) He claimed Tice had tried to recruit him as a candidate. Galloway said:
I think Mr Tice has rather lost his balance, and Mr [Nigel] Farage too, and I remind Mr Tice that I have on my telephone a text from him inviting me to be the Reform UK candidate in a by-election not that long ago.
I’d prefer not to publish it, but if he keeps telling lies about me I will have to tell the truth about him.
Asked whether his supporters had engaged in bad behaviour, Galloway said:
Absolutely none. Ask the police, ask the police if a single one of our supporters has been arrested or spoken to by them.
How Galloway is returning to parliament for his third party, representing a fourth constituency
Here is a profile of George Galloway by Helen Pidd and Ben Quinn.
Galloway claims Labour has 'lost confidence of millions of their voters' who backed them 'generation after generation'
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, picking up from Jonathan Yerushalmy.
Here is more from what George Galloway said in his victory speech at the count.
Keir Starmer – this is for Gaza. And you will pay a high price, in enabling, encouraging and covering for, the catastrophe presently going on in occupied Palestine in the Gaza strip.
Rochdale town councillors, I put you on notice now, that I hope to put together a grand alliance …
At this point Galloway was interrupted by a heckler calling him a climate change denier. She was drowned out by Galloway’s supporters chanting his name. He went on:
The councillors have to go.
I want to tell Mr Starmer above all, that the plates have shifted tonight. This is going to spark a movement, a landslide, a shifting of the tectonic plates in scores of parliamentary constituencies.
Beginning here in the north west, in the West Midlands, in London, from Ilford to Bethnal Green and Bow, Labour is on notice that they have lost the confidence of millions of their voters who loyally and traditionally voted for them, generation after generation …
I’ve heard some of the narrative being spun around this election result this evening. Yes its true, that every Muslim is bitterly angry at Keir Starmer and his listing Labour party.
But you would be very foolish, if you did not realise that millions of other citizens of our country are too.
Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak are two cheeks of the same backside and they both got well and truly spanked tonight!
Galloway ended his speech saying: “God bless you. God bless Rochdale. God bless Gaza.”
We will be opening comments on the blog later.
Updated
Here are some images from the byelection count and Galloway’s victory speech:
During his victory speech, Galloway was interrupted by a heckler accusing him of being a “climate change denier”.
He then had confetti thrown at him by Mark Coleman – who ran in the byelection as an independent candidate and is a supporter of Just Stop Oil.
George Galloway, one of the most divisive politicians in Britain, won almost 40% of the vote in a contest beset by chaos and controversy and dominated by the conflict in Gaza.
Labour, defending a near-10,000-vote majority and riding high in the polls, had expected a straightforward contest to replace the sitting MP, Tony Lloyd, who died on 17 January from leukaemia. But its campaign was thrown into disarray when it emerged its candidate, Azhar Ali, had repeated anti-Israel conspiracy theories about the 7 October attack by Hamas.
Labour was eventually forced to disown Ali and abandoned its campaign barely a week into the contest. Although Ali’s name was on the ballot paper – it was too late to select another candidate – Labour stopped all electioneering in the town nearly three weeks ago.
Galloway, on the other hand, was galvanised. The fedora-sporting politician toured Rochdale with a megaphone, calling the byelection “a referendum on Gaza” and a chance to stage a protest against Labour.
His team, backed by an army of volunteers from across the country, managed to capture the vote of a significant number of Muslim people, who make up about 30% of the town’s population, with many angry about Labour’s position on Gaza.
Galloway, an ex-Labour MP, has now unseated his former party in three elections and will return to parliament representing a fourth constituency in 37 years.
Reform UK leader Richard Tice claims byelection 'not free and fair' after his candidate comes sixth
Reform UK finished in sixth place with only 6.3% of the vote. A Reform UK source told the Guardian the party had under-performed due to logistics: the Rochdale contest was the third byelection it had fought in three weeks and it had been focusing on its party conference in Doncaster last weekend.
Richard Tice, leader of Reform, speaking at the election count, said the poll in Rochdale had “not been a free and fair election”.
What we witnessed here is deeply disturbing. Our candidate and campaign team have been subjected to death threats, vile racist abuse, been refused entry to hustings in council buildings and had to be re-located for their own safety.
We are supposed to be a beacon of democracy, this shameful contest has been more characteristic of a failed state.”
Earlier this week a 23-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of sending a death threat to the Reform candidate, Simon Danczuk, who hired security guards for the final two days of campaigning.
Updated
Rochdale byelection: full results
George Galloway’s campaign team claimed early on in the night that the former Labour and Respect MP would win “comfortably”, and so it proved.
Galloway won 12,335 votes – 39.7% of the total – in a much more sweeping victory than anyone had predicted, giving him a 5,697-vote majority.
The surprise runner-up was David Tully, a local businessman and independent candidate, who secured more than 6,600 votes.
Here are the full results from PA Media. They mark it down as a gain for the Workers Party of Britain (WPB), Galloway’s party, from Labour.
WPB gain from Lab
George Galloway (WPB) 12,335 (39.65%)
David Tully (Ind) 6,638 (21.34%)
Paul Ellison (C) 3,731 (11.99%, -19.21%)
Azhar Ali (Lab) 2,402 (7.72%, -43.86%)
Iain Donaldson (LD) 2,164 (6.96%, -0.02%)
Simon Danczuk (Reform) 1,968 (6.33%)
William Howarth (Ind) 523 (1.68%)
Mark Coleman (ND) 455 (1.46%)
Guy Otten (Green) 436 (1.40%, -0.68%)
Michael Howarth (Ind) 246 (0.79%)
Ravin Rodent Subortna (Loony) 209 (0.67%)
WPB maj 5,697 (18.31%)
Electorate 82,615; Turnout 31,107 (37.65%, -22.48%)
2019 result: Lab maj 9,668 (20.38%) – Turnout 47,447 (60.13%)
Lloyd (Lab) 24,475 (51.58%); Shah (C) 14,807 (31.21%); Green (Brexit)
3,867 (8.15%); Kelly (LD) 3,312 (6.98%); Croke (Green) 986 (2.08%)
Updated
George Galloway calls Rochdale win a 'shifting of the tectonic plates'
The veteran political agitator George Galloway has won the Rochdale byelection after urging voters to lodge “the ultimate protest” over the conflict in Gaza.
After his victory was declared at about 01:45am, Galloway spoke to the assembled crowd at the count. He said:
Keir Starmer – this is for Gaza. And you will pay a high price, in enabling, encouraging and covering for, the catastrophe presently going on in occupied Palestine in the Gaza Strip.
Galloway was then interrupted by a woman, shouting that he was a “climate change denier” before she was shouted down and drowned out by shouts of “Gall-o-way! Gall-o-way!”.
Galloway continued:
I want to tell Mr Starmer above all that the plates have shifted tonight. This is going to spark a movement, a landslide, a shifting of the tectonic plates in scores of parliamentary constituencies.
Labour, which disowned its candidate, Azhar Ali, over inflammatory comments he made about Israel, finished in fourth place with 7.7% of the vote. Although Ali’s name was on the ballot paper – it was too late to select another candidate – Labour stopped all electioneering in the town nearly three weeks ago.
Here is our news story about Galloway’s victory by Josh Halliday and Aneesa Ahmed.
Updated
