Robinhood chief executive Vlad Tenev told investors that the company's prediction markets business is at the beginning of something much larger, and he put a number on it that most executives avoid saying out loud. "I think we're just at the beginning of a Prediction Markets supercycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time," he said on Robinhood Markets' (HOOD) fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call on February 10.
He reported adoption below the forecast. In the same remarks, Tenev said prediction market volumes had "more than doubled yet again" in the fourth quarter, "with over 12 billion contracts traded in 2025, which is the first full year of Prediction Markets." Customers had traded more than four billion further contracts in the opening weeks of 2026. He called it "the fastest-growing business in our history, $300 million-plus run rate in its first year."
