Robotaxis and driver-assistance features are both more capable than they've ever been—and getting better every day. One big question going forward is when those technologies will converge.
In other words, you can take a driverless ride in a Waymo right now in several cities across America. And you can comfortably rely on a hands-free driver aid like General Motors's Super Cruise while driving on certain highways, so long as you supervise. Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) feature can navigate the world fairly well in my experience—but you also have to monitor constantly and be ready to jump in.
So when will true self-driving technology get so cheap and so bulletproof that it lands in regular cars you can actually buy? That's the trillion-dollar question. Because whichever automaker can sell you a nap on the way to work, or extra time to watch Netflix, will reap massive rewards.
According to Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe, that future is closer than you think.
He told Automotive News this week that the next steps for Rivian's autonomy efforts are a "hands-free everywhere" feature, followed by a "point to point navigation" addition that sounds a lot like Tesla's FSD.
Both of those will still require driver involvement and awareness. After that, things will move rather quickly toward a system you don't have to pay attention to anymore, according to the CEO.
"The next step is allowing you not to be in the vehicle," Scaringe told the outlet. “Our view is that’s going to happen well before the end of the decade.”
So, maybe in 2028 or 2029, Scaringe implies, you'll be able to send your Rivian out to run errands or pick up a friend at the airport while you stretch out on the couch. It's a tantalizing vision and a short timeline, but what to make of it?
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been selling roughly that dream since his 2016 "Master Plan Part Deux" manifesto.
"When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination," he wrote. He's said many times over the years that Tesla owners would soon be able to send out their cars to side-hustle for them as autonomous ride-share drivers.
On the one hand, building self-driving cars has proven far more difficult and time-consuming than most people, like Musk, expected. It's been a multi-decade-long effort to get to this point.
At the same time, advancements in artificial intelligence have supercharged the development of autonomous driving algorithms. Generally speaking, primarily rules-based systems (if "stop sign," then "hit the brakes") have given way to AI-based models that can learn better and be more generalizable.
(Scaringe explained this better than I can when I interviewed him on the Plugged-in Podcast earlier this year. You can find the timestamped section here.)
In 2025, autonomous cars are realer than ever, with Waymo handling millions of paid trips each month, expanding to freeways and preparing an onslaught of new cities. And Rivian isn't alone in eyeing higher and higher levels of autonomy in the near future. GM plans to add eyes-off functionality to Super Cruise by 2028, first in the Cadillac Escalade.
Can these companies pull it off? It won't be easy, that's for sure. At least as far as Rivian is concerned, we'll learn more about its plans at its Autonomy and AI Day next week.
Contact the author: Tim.Levin@InsideEVs.com
