Rishi Sunak is facing calls from within his own party not to escalate culture wars that divide the electorate as he eyes policies on small boats and crime in a bid to avoid electoral annihilation.
Government sources made clear the prime minister intended to have “crunchier” political arguments around areas such as immigration, where the Conservatives believe Labour are weak, in the months ahead.
But they indicated he would shy away from a fight on trans rights, a move that risks disappointing the right of his party.
It comes amid warnings he is “doomed to lose power” if he does not change course ahead of the next general election.
One senior Tory told The Independent he feared a raft of “dog whistling” on culture war issues from his own party in the run-up to the election.
On Thursday a series of by-elections saw the prime minister lose two safe seats in a double drubbing. After Labour overturned a 20,000 majority to deliver a historic by-election victory, while the Lib Dems took another formerly safe seat, one former Conservative cabinet minister told The Independent: “The party’s over.”
The party did however hold on to Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in outer London, after the Tory campaign focused on London’s Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s much-disliked Ulez scheme to charge people with more polluting cars. Chris Skidmore, the government’s net zero tsar, said it would be an “abdication” of responsibility if ministers were to “play politics” with environmental policies.
The Conservative MP said: “The UK has been an international leader on taking climate action and cutting our emissions at the same time as growing our economy. We did so by ensuring that we took the politics out of climate change, which affects us all, regardless of who is in power.”
Bim Afolami, a Tory MP who backed Mr Sunak during last year’s leadership races, urged his party not to get involved in culture war fights and instead look to the economy.
Asked if he felt talking more about the culture wars could help woo younger voters, he said: “No. And it’s important because there are some in my party who think this is the route for Conservative success ... The question is what do you prioritise and what’s going to make a difference to people’s lives? And I just do not think for most people, particularly millennials under 40, that is the thing.
“It’s going to be getting the economic opportunities up, making sure they make more money ... and cutting their taxes, and giving them opportunities to own a home. And if we can do that then we’ve got a chance,” he told GB News.
The Tories kept Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge— (Getty Images)
The Uxbridge win led to calls from senior Tories, including reportedly in the cabinet, for Mr Sunak to ditch green policies, such as a 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars. Tory peer Ian Duncan, a former climate change minister, said the prime minister could create a divide with Labour by dumping green policies David Cameron is infamously said to have dubbed “green crap”.
“But this is bigger than that. There needs to be a bipartisan approach ... short term there may be electoral advantage, but medium term there will be serious changes and challenges to our climate that will affect people in their everyday lives,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
The prime minister is to set out his vision for the sort of country he wants to create over the next few months. His aims will include a world-class education system, a more innovative economy, and stronger communities.
But there will be tougher political arguments around issues such as immigration, where the Conservatives argue Labour has no plan to stop the small boats.
One ally told The Times that the prime minister’s new strategy would mean “tough fights, it will mean more political edge”.
Labour has opposed the government’s plans to send those who arrive in the UK on small boats to Rwanda. The Tories argue that the official opposition has put forward no alternative that would stop the boats. Labour says that the Conservatives have failed to stem the tide of Channel crossings despite their hardline rhetoric.
Tougher policies on crime are also expected to be outlined as part of the King’s Speech later this year, potentially including a long-awaited ban on so-called “zombie” knives. There is also expected to be movement on plans to force criminals to go to court to hear their sentences.
A Labour source said: “This is a desperate attempt to distract from this government’s appalling record. They have clearly run out of ideas, and have no plans to help solve the mess in the immigration and asylum system they have created.”
Mr Sunak is expected to face further electoral tests in the coming months, even before next year’s general election.
Rishi Sunak with Conservative party members and supporters at a cafe in the Uxbridge and Ruislip seat— (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Staunch Boris Johnson ally Nadine Dorries has said she is quitting as an MP, although she is yet to formally resign. In what will be seen as a thinly veiled dig at Mr Johnson’s successor on her TalkTV show on Friday, Ms Dorries said that the Conservatives had “avoided a by-election whitewash by the skin of their teeth”.
Ms Dorries took her Mid Bedfordshire seat in 2019 with a majority of 24,000. But the seat is seen as a key target by the Lib Dems. The party overturned a similar majority during a by-election last year, in Tiverton and Honiton in Devon.
