Lord Ashcroft thinks about polling the same way I feel about my emotions: they are a snapshot, not a prediction. Even when 100 per cent accurate – which no survey professes to be – they still do not necessarily tell you what will happen in the future.
Not least because while a mid-term poll is essentially a referendum on the government, a general election is a straight choice between parties and leaders, where voters are forced to choose not their ideal prime minister, but between two or more imperfect candidates.
