Rishi Sunak faces three devastating by-election losses at the start of a general election year, top pollsters have predicted.
As the prime minister tries to rebuild momentum after a difficult few months, failure ahead of an expected autumn election would only increase fears of electoral wipeout for the Tories, who are currently trailing by 18 points.
Contests in Kingswood and Wellingborough have been confirmed for 15 February, while a by-election in Blackpool South to replace Scott Benton looms pending him appealing his 35-day suspension from parliament.
Professor John Curtice, Britain’s most respected polling expert, told The Independent that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is the favourite to win all three.
Keir Starmer will hope to pick up three additional seats from the Conservatives— ( AP/PA)
The Tories have a majority of 18,540 in Wellingborough, where Peter Bone was forced out after an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct. The disgraced MP’s partner Helen Harrison is standing in his place.
Of the upcoming contests, it is the Tories’ best shot at securing a win, and Prof Curtice said it should be a “minimum target”.
But in a damning assessment of the Conservatives’ electoral prospects, he said: “Wellingborough may be no more than a 50-50 shot [for the Conservatives].”
Even if Mr Sunak’s party does pull off a victory, Prof Curtice said a narrow win would “not make me think there has been a fundamental change”. If the party loses, he said the Conservatives are heading for disaster.
“You should not be able to get that good odds-on Labour to win all three seats,” he added.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said in normal times the Tories scraping by in Wellingborough would signal “something deeply worrying and wrong” for the party.
But after a series of historic by-election defeats for the party last year, Mr Tryl said Labour would be disappointed with anything other than a win.
He told The Independent that the Tories are on course to lose Wellingborough, Kingswood and Blackpool South to Labour.
Peter Bone lost his seat in parliament and his girlfriend is standing in the by-election to replace him— (Fabio De Paola/Shutterstock)
Mr Bone was kicked out from his Wellingborough seat after five claims of bullying and one of disturbing sexual misconduct were upheld against him. In one incident he indecently exposed himself to a staff member and trapped him in the bathroom of a hotel room.
The Tories nominated Ms Harrison, a local councillor, to replace him. Mr Tryl said the choice would “make it even more like swimming upstream”.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at polling company Savanta, said that Tory voters will “not be impressed” with Ms Harrison’s selection given her association with Mr Bone.
He agreed that the Conservatives were expected to lose all three seats at the upcoming by-elections, but could win back Wellingborough at the general election.
Mr Hopkins said a triple by-election drubbing would derail any hopes of Mr Sunak gaining momentum before an autumn general election, especially if the Tories struggle in local elections in May.
“It is really difficult, at the minute, to see how the Conservative Party will turn this round… It’s going to take a lot more than Mr Sunak’s umpteenth reset,” he added.
If the Tories lose Kingswood and Wellingborough on 15 February, it would be Mr Sunak’s third double defeat in just a year.
Alistair Strathern became Mid Bedfordshire’s first Labour MP when he replaced former culture secretary Nadine Dorries last October— (PA)
Last July he lost Selby and Ainsty to Labour and Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats in historic swings. And in October, Mr Sunak lost both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire to Labour, with Mid Bedfordshire voting Labour for the first time in its history.
Tory pollster Lord Hayward said the slew of by-elections was “a reflection of the internal wars of the Tory party” between 2020 and 2022.
And he said a key test in the upcoming by-elections will be whether there is any sign of voters put off by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss returning to the party.
Lord Hayward told The Independent that each seat presents a challenge to the Tories, but “the one Tory HQ will be most focused on is Wellingborough”.
Despite Labour’s by-election successes under Sir Keir, Lord Hayward pointed to low turnout which shows “people are not committed to any particular political party at the moment”.
And the former MP said the by-elections will show whether people are beginning to feel the impact of inflation slowing, and “accepting [Mr Sunak’s] financial managerial competence”.
Former Tory MP Chris Skidmore, whose resignation in protest at the PM’s oil and gas policies sparked the Kingswood by-election, has warned that the party faces its “toughest by-election fight so far” in his seat.
In 2019, the Conservatives secured a majority of 18,000 in Wellingborough and 11,000 in Kingswood – the sort of majorities that Labour has overturned in several by-elections in the past year.
