Rishi Sunak could lose the crucial Commons vote on his flagship Rwanda bill “by accident”, according to Conservative MPs.
The PM faces the most perilous week of his premiership yet as the fate of his thwarted deportation plan lies in the hands of two warring Tory factions.
Mr Sunak’s authority is under threat as tribes from the right and moderate wings hold separate meetings on Monday to consider if they will back the beleaguered legislation in a crunch vote on Tuesday.
Although many rebels are planning to back the bill at the first reading stage on Tuesday and “bide their time” until January, the PM has been warned that he could still face a humiliating defeat tomorrow if enough people abstain.
However, Mr Sunak only needs a rebellion of 28 Conservatives to see his majority destroyed as Labour and other parties will vote against it. But if 56 Tory MPs abstain, that would also see the government majority vanish.
One senior Tory MP on the right told The Independent: “It could happen by accident [because of abstentions]. I think it would be better to try to fix the bill and wait – but people will make up their own minds.”
Hardline Brexiteers from the European Research Group (ERG) and other camps on the Conservative right will first hold a summit on the legislation around 12 noon on Monday.
Ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick hinted he would abstain on the bill— (PA Media)
Veteran MP Sir Bill Cash will present the findings of his so-called “star chamber” of lawyers, but he has already signalled they do not believe the proposed law is fit to get the grounded scheme up and running.
Then, the more moderate wing of One Nation Conservatives will hold a separate evening meeting around 6pm in parliament before releasing a statement on their judgment.
Robert Jenrick, who resigned as immigration minister over the legislation, told the BBC on Sunday he will not support the “weak bill that will not work”.
But Mr Jenrick said “we can fix this” in committee stage – raising the possibility he could abstain along with other opponents before pushing to amend the legislation in January.
With some right-wingers keen to pounce on the Rwanda issue to force a vote on Mr Sunak’s leadership, allies are advising the PM to be ready to call a snap election.
Senior Tory MP Sir Charles Walker, former chair of the 1922 committee, said Mr Sunak should call an immediate general election if the Tories “self-destruct” and the bill is voted down.
“If the thought of a third leadership contest in this Parliament leaves me cold, it will most likely cause the country frostbite,” Sir Charles wrote in the i.
Michael Gove insisted that Mr Sunak is “not contemplating” holding an early general election if the Rwanda Bill is voted down. The cabinet minister told Sky News on Sunday: “No, we’re not contemplating that.”
Rishi Sunak under huge pressure from both Tory wings to change bill— (PA)
Home Office modelling, seen by The Times newspaper, that suggests 99.5 per cent of individual legal challenges submitted by asylum seekers will fail to block their deportation under the bill, will be used by No 10 to counter claims by right-wing critics.
Defence secretary Grant Shapps insisted the bill would block the vast majority of attempts to use the courts to avoid being sent to the African nation. The cabinet minister said that the modelling assessment is that only one in 200 appeal cases will pass.
But critics of the plan dismissed the Home Office’s assessment, based on a model from March.
A senior Tory source said: “This is an outdated and analytically flawed model – from March – which came before defeats in the Court of Appeal and Supreme Court.
“Even this old, optimistic model says it could take more than two months to remove a migrant. It would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious,” said the sceptic.
Mr Shapps rejected the suggestion that the PM’s leadership is in chaos. He said the bill would pass through the Commons “for sure” – but admitted the legislation could get “tripped up” in the Lords.
One senior Conservative MP on the right, who has been involved in the “star chamber” discussions, told The Independent that the critique of the bill will be “strong”.
The right-winger said some rebels are still prepared to vote against the bill in early in 2024, even if they back it tomorrow. “I think many see the wisdom in biding their time until the third reading. If it’s not remedied, then we shouldn’t back a bill that doesn’t do the business.”
So-called ‘pasta plotters’ are hoping to bring back Boris Johnson to replace Rishi Sunak— (Getty Images)
A group of unnamed Tory MPs have told the Mail on Sunday that they would like to get rid of Mr Sunak – with some even keen to bring back Boris Johnson as leader.
Dubbed the “pasta plotters”, a small group of anti-Sunak MPs and strategists were said to have met at an Italian restaurant to plan “an Advent calendar of s***” for the PM over the Christmas period.
Damian Green – chair of the moderate One Nation wing of the party – offered a warning to any right-wing rebels seeking to exploit the Rwanda issue as a way to get rid of Mr Sunak.
The PM has tried to find a middle ground in response to the Supreme Court ruling that his plan to send asylum seekers who arrive in the UK on small boats is unlawful.
His bill allows ministers to disapply the Human Rights Act, but does not go as far as overriding the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
Some on the right believe more radical measures are needed to cast aside international law, while moderates have concerns about its legal impact and about ordering courts to deem Rwanda a “safe” country.
A legal assessment for the government has given it only a “50% at best” chance of successfully getting flights to Kigali off next year as result of interim injunctions from Strasbourg.
