Staff shortages were already a fact of life for restaurant-owner Des Gunewardena when the recent wave of Covid-19 hit.
“I visited the Butler’s Wharf Chop House earlier this week and when I asked about our general manager he was off with Covid,” said the D&D boss, who oversees 2,000 staff in outlets across the UK, France and US.
For Gunewardena, the latest round of pandemic-induced shortages have compounded an already tough market. The number of people going off sick has “gone up considerably,” he said, “piling on the problems that our London restaurants have already faced from a 10% staff shortage, the heatwave during which we lost 30% of our business and the £1m we lost in the week of rail and tube strikes”.
The rapid spread of Covid-19 infections in the past month has sent the number of workers taking sick leave soaring, according to official figures, making staff shortages even worse and forcing many employers to shut down parts of their business.
Undermining hopes that the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants spreading across the UK would mimic the relatively mild Omicron variant of the virus, employers have reported staff being “knocked out” and too ill to work from home.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 1.1%, or more than 300,000 workers, took time off sick due to Covid in June.
The ONS, which provides a fortnightly report on the toll on the economy from the pandemic, said the figure for May was effectively zero because the number of incidents were small and the majority of employers failed to include it in their responses.
Employers’ organisations said the return of Covid was a further blow, in addition to ongoing staff shortages, transport disruption, the impact of inflation and a number of employees already off work with long Covid.
Tony Wilson, the head of the Institute for Employment Studies, said the recent strains of Covid were “not killing many people, but it is knocking them out”. He said the scale of the problem was not captured by official figures, which underestimated the disruption Covid was causing.
Hotels have reported shutting rooms, while restaurants have restricted bookings to reduce the number of customers they serve. Gunewardena said customers were upset when they could see empty tables but were refused a booking.
“If I take the booking, we risk a poor reaction from customers,” he said.
Hospital and GP services have reported a huge loss of staff in recent weeks as the latest strains spread through the NHS.
According to the World Health Organization, the proportion of reported cases of BA.4 globally rose from 11% of cases in the week ending 25 June to 14% in the week ending 7 July. BA.5 rose from 42% to 50% of cases in the same period.
Prof Martin Marshall, chair of the Royal College of GPs, said: “The rise in cases of Covid-19 highlights the pandemic isn’t over, and it is still putting direct pressure on general practice and other healthcare services across the NHS.
“Anecdotally we are hearing from members that the rise in Covid cases is causing more GPs and members of the wider team to become sick and unable to work, or self-isolating because they have tested positive for Covid, further exacerbating already existing chronic staff shortages in general practice.”
Dr Layla McCay, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said there was “a clear link between high Covid rates in the population and more staff falling sick”, which she said meant “ongoing disruption to services and delays in the health service’s ability to make significant inroads into the waiting list backlog”.
ONS figures show large parts of the service sector are the worst affected. In June, 1.3% of retail staff and 1.4% of estate agents were off sick with Covid.
Education and health service employers reported a 1.7% and 1.8% rate of sickness absence due to Covid while organisations in the category “other services”, which includes hairdressers, funeral staff, shoe repairers and church staff, reported a 2.2% absence rate.
Factory owners were also hit by a 1.4% absence rate across the manufacturing sector.
The construction industry failed to register an infection rate in May or June, according to the ONS, though the industry operates using tens of thousands of subcontractors and self-employed staff, many of whom work outdoors and are likely to avoid reporting Covid symptoms to protect their incomes.
Not all types of business are covered by the snapshot survey, though it is reasonable to expect the rising Covid infection rate to apply across all 29.6 million employed workers.
Prof Kevin Fenton, president of the Faculty of Public Health, said there was a growing number of people developing severe symptoms. “While we have more to learn about the new variants BA.4 and BA.5, the threat of Covid-19 remains and so too does the need for continued efforts to help prevent the spread of infection.”
He added: “Employers also have an important role to play by acting responsibly and providing proper support for those unable to work as a result of illness.”
Martin McTague, national chair of the Federation of Small Businesses, urged the government to consider reviving Covid subsidies to support small firms, which he said were badly affected by staff absences.
“The average cost of staff absence, including finding cover, to small employers surpassed £3,500 last year. As Covid resurges, the government should be planning for a reintroduction of the Covid sick pay rebate that proved so critical during Covid’s initial waves, and then again when Omicron surged. There must be a safety net for small firms supporting staff who are unwell,” he said.
Jane Gratton, head of people policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said employers were “doing their very best to maintain normal business operations” in the face of rising Covid infection rates and a general worsening of skills and labour shortages.
