The 2022 NFL regular season is finished. Neither myself nor our resident handicapper, the Rhode Island Scumbag, were profitable.
While we each had our moments, our locks were ultimately a wash. I finished the year one game below an even .500. The Scumbag? 28-28-3. You weren’t going to win much betting with us or betting against us.
That made us the worst thing you can be as a wagering guide; boring. The only thing you could count on with our locks? Whenever the RIS and I were on the same bet, it cratered. We were a tidy 0-7 when our locks synced up, including last week’s non-cover from the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars.
Fortunately, the reset to the playoffs brings new opportunity to turn things around. It also brings the opportunity to bet against Kirk Cousins and stare at Monday night’s Cowboys-Buccaneers matchup, shrug, and admit there’s no outcome that would surprise us there. Here’s where our resident expert* is coming into the Wild Card round.
Taking the last three weeks off from betting sports was one of the better decisions I’ve made in the last few months. I feel like I’m seeing the board well and it was nice to watch some games through a different lens.
I did end up placing an irresponsibly large wager on the Buffalo Bills this weekend because I felt like I was owed money after having to sit through that god awful New England Patriots season. Thank you, Bills, for making my birthday weekend a lucrative one.
Well, at least someone in New England had fun watching the Pats this year. Onto our Wild Card bets.
*again, he finished .500, I finished worse than that. “Expert.” Big quotes on that. Citation needed.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers first half UNDER 20.5 points
We are going back to the basics here. Divisional foes, flying around early in a playoff atmosphere.
My honest fear here is that San Fran gets this over the total on their own. Seattle’s offense has come down to earth a little bit and the Niners should be able to pressure Geno Smith.
I also think that they will be happy to let their young quarterback Brock Purdy settle into the game by establishing the run and playing field position. All of that adds up to a low scoring first half.
I was looking to find value with Seattle’s team total under, but at 15.5, there is just too much risk for a meaningless touchdown or field goal to send that one over.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 47.5 points
This one took a little research. I looked back over the last few years of the NFL playoffs. These four seed/five seed matchups with tight spreads are pretty common. They also tend to be close, low scoring games where field position is important and teams try to control the ball and the clock.
I also think both teams will have success on the ground, which will help as we watch that clock tick away. I think the first team to 20 wins here.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: New York Giants +3 at the Minnesota Vikings
This is a pure fade against the quarterback for the Vikings. Whenever Kirk Cousins is on the big stage, in a stand alone game, with the whole country watching … he stinks.
I’m just betting on that. I’m going to sit back, pour myself a cocktail and watch Kirk poop his pantalones on national TV.
Scumbag locks the last two weeks: 1-2 (.333)
Scumbag locks year to date: 28-28-3 (.500)
My non-scumbag lock: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 vs. the Dallas Cowboys and Cowboys-Buccaneers UNDER 45.5 points
The Jaguars inspired little confidence in Week 18. The Chargers inspired even less, playing their starters in a meaningless game entirely too long, having key players deal with injury and eventually losing to broken Russ Wilson and the scattered cremains of the 2022 Denver Broncos. This feels like an even matchup on the field, so let’s look at the intangibles off it:
- The Jaguars have homefield advantage in front of a rabid Duval County crowd. Granted, if any team can deal with a lack of fans it’s the Chargers, but this still counts.
- The Jaguars are coached by Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson. The Chargers are coached by Brandon Staley, a man who loses coin flip decisions at a rate approaching Rosencrantz and/or Guildenstern.
Jacksonville it is.
Otherwise, my expectation is that Cowboys-Bucs will be ugly and Tom Brady will do Tom Brady things. The man didn’t cleave his family into pieces just to lose to Mike McCarthy in what should be his final home game as a Buccaneer.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 2-1 (.667)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 23-24-1 (.490)
