There’s a new rule in Scumbag Land — a place where I assume Michelob Ultra flows freely, the bad beat jackpots are incredible and the idea of a Connecticut casino with a rooftop helipad is real life and not just a Safdie brothers fantasy. Whenever the Rhode Island Scumbag and I agree on a lock, you need to fade it with extreme prejudice.
For the third straight week, our resident prognosticator and I saw eye to eye one what we thought was one of the best bets of the week. And for the third straight week, it crashed and burned. In this case it was the Minnesota Vikings, who rallied back from a 33-0 deficit to win … but not cover the spread oddsmakers had set for them in a 39-36 overtime classic.
Since we both lay out our bets independently and then combine them for this column, there’s no telling whether it will happen again. But if it does, know that we have mushed that line for the rest of the betting public. Wager on the opposite side, collect your payout, and thank us for being doofuses later.
Week 15 started about as poorly as possible. I gave out Minnesota -4 as my first play and before I was on my second beer of the day, it was already 33-0. We almost salvaged a win there, but I think the fact the we even came close changed the trajectory for our betting weekend and we ended up going 2-1 to finish with a winning week.
This week I’m sticking to the degenerate’s creed. There are some very tempting road favorites this week (Cincinnati and Detroit) but I’m not laying it on the road.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Seattle Seahawks +10 against the Kansas City Chiefs
When I made my own lines, I thought that KC should be a touchdown favorite at home against the Seahawks. I was surprised to find out that they are laying double digits.
I don’t think Seattle deserves to be getting double digits against anyone as they have proven to be a well-coached football team that will fight to the bitter end of every game. I don’t think they are a live dog to win in Arrowhead, but I can see the back door being left wide open.
Let’s walk through it and bring our betting slip with us. Cash that ticket Seattle +10.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Atlanta Falcons +7 vs. the Baltimore Ravens
Another cash cow for me this year has been Atlanta. It is just one of the teams that I have gotten right this year.
I’ve backed them and won several times, and faded them and cashed a few tickets as well. This seems like a great spot for them getting a touchdown against an offense that hasn’t really scored enough to cover numbers. Take ATL +7.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs. the Green Bay Packers
Finally the easiest bet of the day is laying it with Miami. Fading the Packers has also been a great system for me this year. I just have visions of Aaron Rodgers being exhausted and frustrated in the Miami heat and being his normal, apathetic self while his team is down 20-plus points.
I don’t think this one is close. I like Miami in a rout for my play of the week. Take Miami -4. Take them alt line -9.5 for +195 at DK sports if you want a juicy payout.
Let’s crush it.
Scumbag locks last week: 2-1 (.667)
Scumbag locks year to date: 26-21-3 (.550)
My non-scumbag lock: Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. the New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots OVER 39.5 points
The bad news: my picks stunk last week. The good news; I’m still batting .500 because the New York Giants were able to pass interference their way over their preseason seven-win total. In an effort to get back on the sunny side of the coin flip, I’m backing a couple AFC North teams.
The Saints and Browns are two inscrutable teams I’m hesitant to bet, but the Browns giving up under a field goal looks like good value. New Orleans just gave up 231 rushing yards to the Falcons but won because Atlanta’s quarterback was Desmond Ridder. Deshaun Watson hasn’t been great in his return following an 11-game suspension following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior,” but he’s certainly capable of adding more to the passing game than a rookie third round pick.
The Patriots’ late game descent into madness covered up the fact Mac Jones stared down the league’s worst passing defense in Week 15 and completed 13 of 31 passes. Even worse, New England’s secondary is depleted and now has to face Joe Burrow and one of the deepest receiving corps in the league. The Pats should still find some success moving the ball against a just-OK run defense, so this feels more like a 28-17 Cincinnati win — and that’s enough to break the 40-ish point total with relative ease.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 1-3 (.250)
Non-scumbag futures bets from the beginning of the season: 1-0 (1.000)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 19-19-1 (.500)
