The Carolina Panthers shocked plenty of people with their Week 7 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And that certainly includes us.
Let’s revisit our predictions for what was a surprising NFC South bout from this past Sunday.
1
PJ Walker throws for under 157 yards: Incorrect
Prop: O/U 157.5 passing yards for Walker
Tampa Bay still runs a tight ship on defense, allowing the seventh-fewest total yards per game. They also have yet to allow more than 255 passing yards to any of the quarterbacks they’ve faced this season—a group that already includes Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott.
This shouldn’t instill much faith in Walker, who attempted one pass of over 10 air yards in last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Plus, nine of his 10 completions came behind the line scrimmage, and he doesn’t have his premium safety valve in Christian McCaffrey anymore.
Result: Walker completed 16 of his 22 passing attempts for 177 yards.
2
. . . and no passing touchdowns: Incorrect
Prop: O/U 0.5 passing touchdowns for Walker
These pirates are pretty stingy, too. The Buccaneers are up to nine takeaways on the season, with six of them coming via the interception, and have relinquished the seventh-fewest passing yards (193.3) per contest.
In turn, Walker is usually a big play waiting to happen, often times for the defense. His propensity to force the issue is probably what led to Week 6’s ultra conservative game plan, but he and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo will need to take way more chances downfield.
And while that could led to more scoring opportunities, this Carolina offense is far too broken up—especially with two of its best players traded away earlier in the week—to get on track just yet.
Result: Walker threw for two touchdowns—a 20-yarder to wide receiver DJ Moore in the second quarter and a 29-yarder to tight end Tommy Tremble in the fourth quarter.
3
Tom Brady throws for over 24 completions: Correct
Prop: O/U 24.5 pass completions for Brady
Speaking of opportunities, Brady and his bunch are going to get a ton of them against the Panthers. With Carolina averaging an NFL-low 53.8 offensive plays per game, that’ll give Tampa Bay plenty of time and tries to crack the defense.
Result: Brady completed 32 passes for 290 yards.
4
. . . and over 35 attempts: Correct
Prop: O/U 35.5 passing attempts for Brady
Brady has thrown for fewer than 35 attempts in just two of this season’s six games—with one of them resulting in 34 tries.
Result: Brady attempted 49 passes, none of which resulted in a touchdown or an interception.
5
Leonard Fournette rushes for under 64 yards: Correct
Prop: O/U 64.5 rushing yards for Fournette
The Buccaneers currently boast the league’s worst ground attack, averaging just 67.5 rushing yards per contest. And the Panthers, despite their 26th-ranked run defense, can prove rather stout at times.
Fournette, who has averaged 7.5 targets per contest over the last four games, should also see most of his output come in the passing game anyway.
Result: Fournette rushed for 19 yards on eight carries.
6
. . . and records over 29 receiving yards: Incorrect
Prop: O/U 29.5 receiving yards for Fournette
As we said, Fournette is a staple in Tampa’s passing plan. He’s hit the 35-yard receiving mark in each of the last four outings.
Result: Fournette recorded a season-low seven receiving yards on two catches.
7
D'Onta Foreman rushes for under 41 yards: Incorrect
Prop: O/U 41.5 rushing yards for Foreman
With McCaffrey gone, Foreman should get the lion’s share of carries over Chuba Hubbard. But the Buccaneers defense, which has allowed the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game, remains one of the strongest groups against the run.
Result: Foreman broke that mark on just one run, a 60-yard rumble in the third quarter that help set up a 17-yard run to the end zone by fellow back Chuba Hubbard. He finished with 118 yards on 15 carries.
8
DJ Moore catches over four passes: Correct
Prop: O/U 4.5 receptions for Moore
McCaffrey accounted for over a third of the Panthers’ passing targets last week. Those attempts are going to have to find a new home, and Moore—who saw seven of them against the Rams—is the obvious beneficiary.
Result: Moore recorded season-highs in receptions (seven) and receiving yards (69).
9
Mike Evans records under 63 receiving yards: Incorrect
Prop: O/U 63.5 receiving yards for Evans
Evans, who should be headed to Canton one day, is obviously quite good. But so is Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn.
Horn, who has allowed the lowest passer rating amongst all starting cornerbacks, should follow Evans for much of the afternoon.
Result: Even with the big first-quarter drop on what would have been a 64-yard touchdown catch, Evans signed off with 96 receiving yards on nine grabs.
10
Panthers lose by more than 13 points: Incorrect
Spread: Panthers +13.5
Carolina is a mess right now and Tampa is looking to get on track in their pursuit of another Lombardi Trophy. The visitors take care of their business.
Result: The Panthers moved to 2-5 with their 21-3 upset win.
