Accurately predicting the winner of the Premiership grows less simple by the year. The stats do not lie: in the past five years there have been five different champions of England and no one will be too shocked if that sequence stretches to six in June. Say what you like about the battle-scarred competition but it keeps everyone on their toes.
This time around it promises to be even more cut-throat, given there is now renewed scope for additional fun and games at the bottom of the ladder. Relegation – or at least a playoff – will be back in the mixer if the Championship’s top team satisfy the slightly less draconian restrictions around stadium capacity. Assuming 5,000 fans can be accommodated with scope for further expansion in subsequent years the promised land is reachable once more.
Given the most recent Championship promotion playoff was in 2017 – when London Irish went up at Bristol’s expense by beating Yorkshire Carnegie – it offers a potential tweak to the status quo. Newcastle have finished rock bottom for the past two seasons and will be saving themselves a huge load of early summer angst if they can sidestep a hat-trick.
The bad news for Steve Diamond and his squad is that the challenge is no easier. Almost all their rivals should be at least as strong as last season. True, there are some prominent absent friends – Owen Farrell, the Vunipola brothers, Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam, Manu Tuilagi, Jasper Wiese, André Esterhuizen – who have left significant holes at Saracens, Northampton, Sale, Leicester and Harlequins. On the flipside, it would be pushing it to describe any of that muscular quintet as vulnerable.
Then there is Bath, who came so close to derailing Saints in the final despite having been reduced to 14 men by Beno Obano’s first-half red card. It might alter things slightly if Finn Russell plays only sporadically but Johann van Graan has more forward depth at his disposal than anyone else and will be encouraged by another killer stat. In the past 18 seasons the previous year’s losing finalists have won the following year’s title no fewer than nine times.
The season’s opening six weeks should tell us whether Bath are indeed the real deal. Northampton at home and Leicester away, followed by two full-fat derbies against Bristol and Gloucester plus awkward games against Quins and Sale, will reveal plenty. In a season of opportunity for younger players everywhere, Alfie Barbeary, Ted Hill, Max Ojomoh and their new addition Guy Pepper will all be keen to push claims for international recognition.
Having three home games in their first four fixtures also gives the Sharks a chance to build some early momentum, with George Ford in the tactical chair and Fiji’s Waisea Nayacalevu concentrating opposition minds in midfield. And what about Bristol, whose form towards the end of last season was frequently electric? Watch out for their new Argentinian signing Benjamín Elizalde, a potentially exciting recruit for an already fizzing backline.
Northampton’s Australian back-rower Josh Kemeny and Gloucester’s Christian Wade could also prove popular signings while Leicester will surely be harder nosed under Michael Cheika. Exeter’s eye for unheralded young talent – watch out for Paul Brown-Bampoe and Will Rigg – also makes them reliably awkward opposition. Which leaves the biggest imponderables: the two London clubs, Saracens and Harlequins.
Particularly significant seasons are looming, in particular, for Maro Itoje and Marcus Smith. Itoje is now installed as Saracens’ captain, an appointment that should galvanise him and allow him to prove a point to those who have not always trusted his leadership abilities. With the outstanding Juan Martín González and a well-regarded new Kiwi fly-half in Fergus Burke, signed from the Crusaders and eligible for both England and Scotland, Sarries will not be as flummoxed by Farrell’s departure as some doom merchants have predicted.
A defining period also looms for Smith and Quins. Show as much dash and resilience as they did in Bordeaux in the Champions Cup quarter-finals and they are capable of beating anyone. Smith can improve his chances of a key role on next summer’s Lions tour and Cassius Cleaves on the wing is a potential new whizz‑kid. But for all Quins’ impressive work off the field, now has to be the time to crank things up on it. Finishing outside the top five for a third season in a row would hardly suggest progress.
Add it all together and what do the old tea leaves say? A top four of Bath, Sale, Northampton and Saracens – which just happens to be the same playoff cast as last year. Not everything in English rugby changes overnight. Do not be entirely surprised, though, if a Russell-fired Bath are crowned domestic kings for the first time since 1996.
