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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

FTSE 100 posts biggest fall since August, as UK 30-year borrowing costs hit 25-year high – business live

Office for National Statistics United Kingdom Inflation United States GfK Great Britain Joe Staton Britain Interest Rates The Bank of England
The Bank of England in the City of London.
The Bank of England in the City of London. Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

Closing post

Time to wrap up…

The UK’s share index has ended the day at its lowest closing point since late August, as geopolitical worries hit equity markets.

The FTSE 100 fell 1.3% today, its biggest one-day fall in over two months.

But oil posted its second weekly rise in a row, on fears of supply disruption in the Middle East.

UK long-term government bond prices weakened, with the yield on 30-year gilts hitting a 25-year high over 5.1%

Here’s today’s main stories:

Global oil market prices have climbed for two consecutive weeks since Hamas launched its shock attack on Israeli civilians on 7 October.

The deadly offensive sent tremors through the oil markets, causing prices to climb to $94 (£77) a barrel. It also reignited fears among oil traders and economists that markets could breach the $100 a barrel mark.

Many worry an escalation of tensions in the region could drive oil prices far higher by choking a key transit route for seaborne cargoes of oil and gas from the Middle East to the global market – threatening efforts by central bankers to tame high inflation.

Here’s our full explanation of what’s happening in the oil market:

FTSE 100 closes down 1.3%

Britain’s blue-chip share index has sunk to its lowest closing level since 25 August, as geopolitical risks hit equities this week.

The FTSE 100 index has just closed down 97 points, or 1.3%, at 7,402 points.

That’s its biggest one-day fall since mid-August, and its third drop of at least 1% in a row.

As flagged earlier, geopolitical worries have weighed on the markets this week, with investors fearing a broader conflict in the Middle East.

The oil price remains higher too, with Brent crude up almsot 1% at $93.25 per barrel.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, explains:

Risk aversion heading into the weekend is pushing oil prices higher amid fears of an escalation in the Middle East. The potential for the war between Israel and Gaza to become more widespread is making traders nervous and adding a significant risk premium to oil prices at a time when the market is already extremely tight.

Traders are wary of weekend events triggering a shock price move on the open which likely explains the moves we’re seeing today.

The sell-off was also triggered by concerns over rising borrowing costs in the bond market, where UK 30-year borrowing costs hit 25-year highs today.

In the technology sector, one of the executives invited to Rishi Sunak’s international AI safety summit next month has warned that the conference risks achieving very little.

Connor Leahy, the chief executive of the AI safety research company Conjecture, has accused powerful tech companies of attempting to “capture” the landmark meeting.

Leahy fears heads of government were poised to agree a style of regulation that would allow companies to continue developing “god-like” AI almost unchecked.

Here’s the story:

FT: Avanti to cut services on some of UK’s busiest intercity routes before Christmas

There could be further pain for rail passengers in the run-up to Christmas.

The Financial Times is reporting that Avanti West Coast is cutting the number of trains running on some of the UK’s busiest intercity lines in the run-up to Christmas.

The FT says:

Avanti plans to cut some services on its routes from London to Manchester, Birmingham and North Wales from December 9, including cutting trains between London and Manchester by a third on Saturdays, according to people familiar with the matter.

Avanti blames staff shortages, but the plan is likely to cause anger – coming just a month after the company won a long-term contract to keep running intercity services on the west coast main line.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, agrees that it’s been a dismal session as geo-political worries swirl,

‘’It’s turning out to be a dismal session with a rising pressure cooker of concern about the impact of high interest rates and geo-political turmoil.

As painful borrowing costs weigh down on households, UK consumer confidence has taken a big knock and sharply slowing sales in September signal a deep downturn for retail.

The pound has been sideswiped by the bleaker prospects for the UK, falling to five-month lows against the euro.

Investor sentiment in Europe today has been “sour”, reports Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

He explains:

European markets have continued to look soft, finishing a negative week very much on the back foot with the DAX sliding below its October lows to its lowest levels since March, as concerns grow that the war between Israel and Hamas morphs into a wider conflict.

The FTSE100 has had an abysmal last 3 days seeing a peak to trough move of over 275 points from this week’s highs, or a decline of over 3%, and is closing in on its October lows below 7,400. The FTSE250 has fared little better sliding to one-year lows.

Reports of attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria overnight increased concerns that the US could get drawn into the conflict more than it already is, if it strikes back at those who are attacking Israel, or more crucially hits back at those who are attacking its own assets.

Today’s declines have been broad based and sector wide with tech and basic resources acting as the main drags, while haven plays like gold, and the Swiss franc have continued to make gains.

There was encouraging news on inflation from Germany this morning.

Prices charged by German industrial producers slumped by 14.7% year-on-year in September, the largest annual decline since data started being collected in 1949.

The drop in wholesale price was mainly due to lower energy prices compared to a year ago, while intermediate goods (used to make final products for sale) were also cheaper than in September 2022.

FTSE 250 at one-year low

The UK’s FTSE 250 index, which contains medium-sized companies, has dropped to a new one-year low today.

The FTSE 250 is down 0.9%, adding to losses earlier this week.

The index, which is seen as a gauge of the UK economy, has lost almost 10% so far this year.

Wall Street has opened a little lower, with the S&P 500 index down 0.18%.

Oil, meanwhile, is on track for its second weekly gain in a row – driven by fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note on Friday:

“Signs that an Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza Strip is imminent have been pushing oil prices up significantly since yesterday. A barrel of Brent now costs $93 again. So far, however, the supply situation on the market has not changed.”

FTSE 100 on track for worst week since August

Britain’s stock market is on track for its worst week in two months, as geopolitical fears grip investors.

The FTSE 100 index has fallen by 90 points so far today, or -1.2%, to 7,409 points – its third hefty points fall in a row. Mining giant Anglo American (-4.2%) is leading the fallers, followed by grocery technology group Ocado (-3.7%).

That takes the blue-chip index down to its lowest level since 4 October, leaving it on track for its lowest closing level since late August.

So far this week, the FTSE 100 index has fallen by 2.5%, its 5th worst week of 2023, and the biggest one-week fall since mid-August.

The FTSE 100 share index
The FTSE 100 share index Photograph: Refinitiv

The Israel-Hamas war, deadlock on US Capitol Hill over the choice of a speaker and the selloff in the US bond market are all worrying the markets.

Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon, says the fear of trouble in politics, war and weather are colliding to take risk off the table:

Risk off as US rates, ongoing fear of Israel/Hamas, lack of US House leadership, higher oil, higher gold and little relief in global bonds leave many dreading the weekend and the fear of worse headlines.

Updated

Knight Frank: "Stubborn inflation means subdued autumn for UK housing market"

For the second year running, the seasonal autumn bounce has failed to materialise in the UK housing market this year, warns estate agents Knight Frank.

They say that the UK’s stubborn inflation rate means the housing market will see a “subdued autumn”.

That would follow the slowdown last autumn, when the mini-budget drove up mortgage costs.

But next spring may produce a seasonal bounce in activity if inflation appears tamed.

A chart of UK housing activity

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, warns that the conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate the situation with an inflationary rise in the oil price, adding:

In the UK, it is the strength of the Jobs market and wage growth that is driving underlying inflation. Ordinarily, a strong jobs market supports housing transactions, just not when it’s keeping mortgage costs so high.

So, what will fix it this time? Rishi Sunak’s departure may be closer following two poor by-election results last week, but more relief will only come once buyers and sellers accept that rates have settled at their new normal and house prices reflect that. With the Bank of England fighting a prolonged battle with inflation, nobody is ready to announce “job done” quite yet. However, after 14 consecutive rises followed by a pause last month, we must be in the endgame, which means next spring will be an important moment.

The pound has dropped to its weakest level against the euro in five months today, after September’s weak retail sales.

Sterling fell to €1.1433 against the single currency, with the slide in UK consumer confidence also weighing on the currency.

China to curb graphite exports

Trade tensions between China and the US have deepened further today, with Beijing bringing in new curbs on exports of certain types of graphite.

China’s commerce ministry and the General Administration of Customs announced special export permits for three grades of graphite, used to make lithium-ion batteries for mobile phones and electric vehicles.

The ministry said:

“Based on the need to uphold its national security and interests, China has implemented export controls on certain graphite items in accordance with the law.”

The move comes two days after the US tightened its export controls for artificial intelligence chips, making it much harder for companies such as Nvidia to sell high-performance semiconductors to China.

Retailers are hoping that the recent fall in inflation will boost consumer confidence this Christmas shopping season, reports Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium.

Dickinson adds that the squeeze on household incomes hit retail spending on major purchases last month:

“As mortgages, rents and fuel costs continued to weigh on households, sales were impacted for big ticket items such as computers, electricals and larger household appliances.

Meanwhile, cosmetics and toiletries had another strong month.”

There is likely to be fierce competition from UK retailers trying to encourage shoppers to spend in the run-up to Christmas, predicts Matt Dalton, Partner - Risk Consulting & Consumer Sector Leader at Mazars.

Following the 0.9% drop in UK retail sales this morning, Dalton says:

“Retail sales for September were expected to slow down; however they were significantly weaker than predicted. Despite the robust wage growth, consumers are growing weary of paying higher price tags for products and services. With oil prices increasing and rising tensions in the Middle East, inflation continues to eat away at real incomes.

“We expect that consumer spend will continue to slow down, across the board. Higher-end retail may continue to buck the trend, as it does even in times of crisis, but we expect most households to pull back on further spending as their heating bills rise. The next two months leading up to Christmas are crucial for retailers and we expect fierce competition with early promotions and significant discounting to attract customers.”

Oil at three-week high as Gaza ground offensive looms

The oil price has hit a three-week high this morning, after Israel security officials signalled their readiness to embark on a ground offensive into Gaza.

Brent crude rose 1.5% to hit $93.79 per barrel, the highest since the end of September, as tensions in the Middle East kept markets on edge.

Gold is also rising this morning, as Raffi Boyadjian, lead investment analyst at XM, points out:

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to weigh on market sentiment on Friday as investors were on alert for a possible escalation over the weekend. With reports suggesting that a ground offensive by Israel into the Gaza Strip could be imminent, oil futures headed higher, extending their weekly gains to between 2% and 3%.

Gold, which has been the safe haven of choice during this latest episode, climbed to a three-month high above $1,980/oz, as the risk of the conflict widening appears to be growing. Tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon are boiling over after Hezbollah reportedly fired more rockets, while a US warship intercepted three missiles from Yemen, likely to have been launched by Iranian-backed Houthi forces.

Updated

European stocks lower after rough week

European stock markets are sliding into the red again today, as they head towards sharp weekly losses.

The UK’s FTSE 100 index is down 53 points or 0.7% at 7445 points, a two-week low.

The FTSE 100 has lost 2% so far this week, as investors have fretted that conflict in the Middle East could spread.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, says:

“The FTSE 100 is on track to end the week nearly 2% lower, the result of a challenging period for investors worried about war in the Middle East, interest rates potentially staying higher for longer and mixed messages from large corporates in the US.”

The pan-European Stoxx 600 is down 1% this morning, at a seven-month low, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC both down 1.2%.

European shares are set to post their biggest weekly loss in three months.

Updated

UK 30-year borrowing costs rise to highest since 1998

Britain’s long-term borrowing costs have hit their highest level since the early days of Tony Blair’s administration.

The yield, or interest rate, on 30-year British government bonds has touched the highest in more than 25 years this morning.

It rose as high as 5.119%, up 4 basis points today, to highest since September 1998, Reuters reports. That takes it above a previous peak of 5.115% set on 4 October.

Yields rise when price fall, and indicate the cost of issuing new government debt.

Today’s move comes amid the wider bond market selloff that has gripped markets this autumn.

“Poor inflation news in the UK has seen gilt yields close in on a new cycle higher,” says Mark Dowding, of RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

Phillip Inman, the Observer’s economics editor, said the lower-than-expected debt payments that were a feature of today’s public finance figures (see earlier post) disguise a serious dilemma for the Treasury.

He writes:

“There may be calls from Tory MPs for tax cuts based on an estimated £25bn undershoot on the forecasts for the 2023-24 annual spending deficit, but the Treasury would struggle to justify that to international lenders – the ones that panicked when Liz Truss announced unfunded tax cuts.

Much of the boost to the Exchequer came from inflation-linked increases in tax receipts – from higher wages feeding into income tax revenues and higher VAT payments – that will need to be channelled back into higher welfare payments and to cash-strapped councils.

Also, as the Resolution Foundation said, lower debt interest payments in September flatter to deceive. That’s because inflation is expected to be higher for longer, keeping interest higher for longer and increasing the longer term debt bill.

The Foundation said:

“The longer-term higher expectations for interest rates will leave the Chancellor even less room for manoeuvre in the Autumn Statement. A one percentage point rise in rates currently increasing borrowing by £15bn in five years’ time’.”

There’s some significant moves in the foreign exchange markets this morning,

The Swiss franc hit its strongest since 2015 against the euro this morning.

The Swiss franc is a safe-haven asset, and benefitting from nervous investors who are avoiding risk due to the Israel-Hamas war.

Elsewhere, the Japanese currency has weakened to 150 yen per dollar, a level that sparked significant volatility when it was reached earlier this month.

The yen fell after inflation in Japan came in higher-than-expected but fell to a year low, “softening the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hawks’ hands”, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

The 0.9% drop in retail sales last month highlights “the sluggish consumer backdrop that is contributing to a weak economy,” says Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor.

The warmer than expected weather conditions meant there was less urgency among consumers to stock up on autumn/winter clothing essentials like coats, hats, and gloves. As a result, clothing sales volumes slid by 1.6% while household goods also fell by 2.3%. Offsetting this to some extent was an increase in spending on motor fuel driven by the rise in underlying oil prices between June and September. And the warm weather helped to provide a modest boost to food store sales too.

Rising prices and broader cost-of-living pressures have prompted consumers to cut back on non-essential shopping – there was a slump in spending on watches and jewellery for example in September.

UK government borrowing lower than forecast in September

There’s not much good news for the government this morning, as they digest two historic byelection defeats and see the retail sector sliding into a possible recession.

But there is one glimmer of optimism – UK borrowing continues to undershoot forecasts.

The UK recorded a smaller-than-expected budget deficit of £14.3bn in September, the Office for National Statistics said this morning.

That’s £1.6bn less than a year ago, in September 2022, and the sixth highest September borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

Significantly, it is lower than the £20.5bn which the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast for September, suggesting chancellor Jeremy Hunt will come under pressure from MPs to consider tax cuts in his autumn statement.

Hunt has pushed back against calls to ease the tax burden, though.

September’s deficit shrank due to higher tax receipts, and a fall in the interest payment on government debt (thanks to the fall in the RPI index this summer).

Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, says:

Were the pattern of recent months to continue over the rest of 2023-2024, the full-year deficit could come in around £25bn below the OBR’s forecast of £131.6bn.

Sale of Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator kicks off

The sale of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator has formally kicked off, thwarting a last ditch attempt by the Barclay family to shut down the auction with a blockbuster £1bn offer.

This morning the boards of the parent companies of Telegraph Media Group (TMG), the parent company of the Daily Telegraph and Sunday Telegraph, and The Spectator said that advisers Goldman Sachs has launched a sales process for each of the businesses.

Earlier this week, the Barclay family tabled an offer valuing the Telegraph newspaper group at £1bn in an attempt to stop the sale process heading to an auction and deter rival bidders from challenging them.

The Barclays acquired the Daily and Sunday Telegraph as well as the Spectator in 2004 but Lloyds bank took control of them in June after the family failed to reach agreement over more than £1bn in unpaid debt.

Lloyds resisted multiple previous proposals tabled by the Barclays, and the bank has been keen to see what value might be placed on an influential media asset such as the Telegraph in an open auction.

Other potential bidders include Axel Springer, which lost out to the Japanese conglomerate Nikkei in the takeover battle of the Financial Times in 2015, the Daily Mail owner Lord Rothermere, and Sir Paul Marshall, the founder of the London-based hedge fund Marshall Wace and a minority investor in GB News.

Marshall is forming a consortium that includes the US hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin.

There are also bids being put together by National World, which is run by David Montgomery, the former chief of the Mirror newspaper group. And Sir William Lewis, the former News UK, Dow Jones and Telegraph executive.

Rupert Murdoch’s News UK is considered a potential bidder for The Spectator.

Any deal to buy the Telegraph is likely to draw close scrutiny from the UK government and regulators such as Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority, including a public interest test and, potentially, plurality and competition investigations, depending on who wins the auction.

Bank of England governor predicts 'noticeable drop' in inflation

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has predicted inflation will fall this month.

Speaking to the Belfast Telegraph, Bailey said October’s inflation figures, due in a month’s time, is expected to show a “noticeable drop” in the headline rate of price rises.

The sharp rise in energy prices last year will fall out of the annual inflation comparison, while Ofgem’s energy price cap means average bills fell this month.

Bailey also said that September’s inflation figures, which were released on Wednesday, were not far off what the BoE expected – even though the CPI measure of rising prices stuck at 6.7%.

He said:

“We were not expecting much change in inflation.

It was not far off what we were expecting. Core inflation fell slightly from what we were expecting and that’s quite encouraging”.

Bailey also told the Belfast Telegraph that the Windsor Framework has brought “confidence” to Northern Ireland, after meeting with businesses in Newry.

Bailey also warned that wages are growing too quickly to be compatible with the central bank’s 2% inflation target, and declining pressure on food prices has “got quite a way to go yet”.

Updated

Pound falls as consumers buckle

The pound has dropped this morning, suggesting some traders think the fall in retail sales makes another increase in interest rates less likely.

Sterling is down half a cent against the US dollar at $1.2094.

Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, says the Bank of England will welcome the fall in consumer spending, as it tries to bring inflation down to its 2% target (it was 6.7% last month):

“After sticky UK CPI data showed food price inflation slowing, but rising petrol prices negating it, retail sales slowed more than expected in September. It’s not surprising to see the consumer sector under pressure given what has been thrown at it.

This data will be seen as good news by the Bank of England, although it’s unlikely to be a major factor in their policy decisions.”

Updated

It's the start of "another retail recession"

Britain is facing “the start of another retail recession”, warns consultancy group Capital Economics.

Following the 0.9% drop in retail sales volumes last month, their assistant economist Alex Kerr explains:

The 0.9% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in September meant sales volumes fell 0.8% q/q in Q3 and suggests that after the 18-month-long retail recession came to an end in Q1, the sector may already be back in recession.

And as the drag on activity from higher interest rates intensifies, we still think that real consumer spending will decline by 0.5% from its peak to its trough over the coming quarters.

Updated

ONS: Retail sales fell notably in September

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, says:

“Retail sales fell notably in September with retailers telling us that cost of living pressures are influencing consumers, particularly for sales of non-essential goods.

“It was a poor month for clothing stores as the warm autumnal conditions reduced sales of colder weather gear.”

Today’s retail sales report also highlights how inflation means shoppers have been spending more to get less.

When compared with their pre-Covid-19 pandemic level in February 2020, total retail sales were 17.1% higher in value terms, but volumes were 2.5% lower, the ONS says.

UK retail sales

Here’s some snap reaction to the fall in British retail sales last month:

Retail sales slide across Great Britain

Newsflash: Retail sales across Great Britain have fallen by more than expected last month, underlying the drop in consumer confidence flagged by GfK this morning.

Retail sales volumes fell by 0.9% in September 2023, following a rise of 0.4% in August 2023, new figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

That’s worse than expected – economists had forecast a 0.2% monthly fall.

On an annual basis, sales volumes were 1% lower than a year ago (although inflation meant that people actually spent 4.7% more, but got fewer items).

The squeeze on household budgets hit spending, while demand for autumn clothing was weak due to warm weather in September

The ONS says:

Non-food stores sales volumes fell by 1.9% in September 2023; retailers reported that the fall over the month was because of continuing cost of living pressures, alongside the unseasonably warm weather reducing sales of autumn-wear clothing.

Consumers less keen to buy big ticket items

GfK’s major purchase measure – an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items – saw the sharpest drop of 14 points in October.

That is a significant turnaround from last month’s four-point increase – something that will concern retailers in the run-up to Christmas.

Confidence in personal finances over the next 12 months fell six points to minus eight, although it remains 26 points higher than this time last year, while expectations for the general economic situation over the coming year has fallen by eight points to minus 32 – 29 points higher than last October.

Introduction: UK consumer confidence tumbles as inflation hits households

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markest and the world economy.

UK consumer confidence has tumbled this month as households grow more nervous about the propects for their personal finances and the wider economy.

The latest gauge of consumer optimism from GfK dropped to a three-month low of -30 in October, down from September’s reading of -21.

Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, says confidence has fallen because many households are struggling to meet bills, such as mortgage payments and rents.

“This sharp fall underlines that the cost-of-living crisis, and simply not having enough money to make-ends-meet, are still exerting acute pressure for many consumers.”

Staton adds that there is “growing unease” among consumers, citing the…

“fierce headwinds of meeting the accelerating costs of heating our homes, filling our petrol tanks, coping with surging mortgage and rental rates, a slowing jobs market and now the uncertainties posed by conflict in the Middle East”.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, says:

The lagging effect of higher mortgage rates, along with rising prices at the pump as well as the horrific events in the Middle East hammered sentiment.

Data earlier this week showed that UK inflation failed to fall as expected last month, while wages are rising faster than prices after a two-year squeeze.

Also coming up today

The latest UK retail sales figures, due at 7am, will give another insight into consumer spending.

Inflation fears are also hitting market confidence, as investors fear that central banks will maintain the squeeze of higher interest rates for longer.

Yesterday, America’s top central banker, Jerome Powell, warned that US inflation was “still too high”, but also appeared to hint that the Federal Reserve could leave interest rates on hold again next month.

The agenda

  • 7am BST: UK public finances for September

  • 7am BST: Great Britain’s retail sales for September

  • 1.30pm BST: Canadian retail sales for September

  • 2pm BST: Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, gives a speech

Updated

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