Closing post
Time to wrap up.
Here are today’s main stories, as UK government bonds continue to rally on expectations that UK interest rate will be cut in 2024, to stave off a possible recession after today’s drop in retail sales.
The financial watchdog has found that collapsed hospital operator NMC Health committed market abuse by understating its debts by as much as $4bn (£3.2bn).
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) censured the former FTSE 100 company on Friday for misleading the market but stopped short of fining it as no funds are expected to be left at the business once outstanding debts to creditors are paid out.
NMC Health was a London-listed healthcare operator, primarily running hospitals in the Middle East. It entered the FTSE 100 in 2017 after rapid growth and was valued at £8.6bn at its peak in 2018.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank aren’t expecting many fireworks from Jeremy Hunt in next Wednesday’s autumn statement.
Instead, we’re likely to see “modest” fine tuning of policy measures as the chancellor sticks with fiscal discipline.
But they do suggest a few measures, including possibly more help for struggling households this winter, saying:
What to expect? Potential cuts to inheritance tax, for one. Some housing support too looks very likely. And more likely than not, we see the Chancellor making permanent his full expensing of capex.
What could be the Chancellor’s ‘rabbit out of the hat’? In the midst of lower benefits spending expected in the Autumn Statement, we think the Chancellor could also introduce a small one-off cost of living payment to support vulnerable households this winter as energy bills rise.
Updated
Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden has also warned investors today that current expectations for interest rate cuts are too optimistic.
In his speech to the Society of Professional Economists today, Ramsden argued that the current market path for interest rates is too loose to get inflation back to target sustainably.
Ramsden said the “evolution of the market curve” since the BoE’s latest set of forecasts at the start of November “other things equal, would mean that financial conditions were less restrictive.”
More here.
Over on Wall Street, the US stock market is on track for its third day of gains, after a cautious open today.
US stock markets inched upwards at the opening bell 🇺🇸 The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.2% to 35,017.16, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.1% to 4,512.55, positioning itself for a third consecutive week of gains. Meanwhile, the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite declined by… https://t.co/PmRSMD9n5S pic.twitter.com/882RWbaoDK
— Share_Talk ™ (@Share_Talk) November 17, 2023
Updated
FT: Axel Springer pulls out of auction for UK’s Telegraph Media
The Financial Times are reporting that German publishing group Axel Springer has pulled out of an auction to buy Telegraph Media Group.
Axel Springer apparently baulked at the price expectations for the UK publisher, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The FT says:
The people said the mooted price tag of around £600mn was too high for an asset primarily rooted in print rather than digital distribution.
Late last month, Axel Spring’s CEO Mathias Döpfner suggested they might not bid, due to the company’s digital-only strategy, as my colleague Mark Sweney reported here.
The Telegraph group is up for sale after being seized by Lloyds bank, in a row with owners the Barclays family in June over more than £1bn in unpaid debt.
Over in the US, new house construction has picked up for the second month running.
Housing starts (a measure of construction of new homes) rose 1.9% month-on-month in October, as builders ramped up new projects amid expectations that US interest rates have peaked.
However, that left housing starts 4.2% lower than a year ago, in October 2022.
Building permits, a sign of future construction, rose 1.1% to an annual rate of 1.49m (but were 4.4% lower on an annual basis).
Housing Starts and Permits:
— CtheLightTrading (@canuck2usa) November 17, 2023
Housing Starts: 1.372M .. Expecting 1.35M
Building Permits: 1.487M .. Expecting 1.45M
BoE's Ramsden: interest rates must remain restrictive for an extended time
Just in: Bank of England deputy governor Sir Dave Ramsden has predicted that UK interest rates must remain at ‘restrictive’ levels for some time, to bring inflation down to the 2% target.
Ramsden is one of the six MPC members who voted to leave interest rates on hold at 5.25% this month (outvoting three who wanted a rise to 5.5%).
He told the Society of Professional Economists today that borrowing costs need to remain high, based on the BoE’s economic forecasts, saying:
In terms of my latest monetary policy decision I voted along with five other MPC members to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25% at the November meeting. I continue to characterise my approach to monetary policy as being watchful and responsive. I will continue to monitor closely the indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole.
On the basis of our latest projections a restrictive policy stance is likely to be warranted for an extended period of time to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2 per cent target.
Ramsden also suggests that rates could yet be raised higher, saying:
Given my assessment of the outlook and the risks I would not rule out having to respond to evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures by raising Bank Rate further in the future but I will continue to make my decisions meeting to meeting conditional on my assessment on developments in the economy and what they indicate about prospects for inflation.
Professor Costas Milas, of the Management School at the University of Liverpool, tells us that the drop in retail sales will add to legitimate worries that the final quarter of 2023 will see a notable drop in UK GDP.
He explains that although the Bank of England’s policymakers keep repeating that it is too early to talk about interest rate cuts, two things are noteworthy:
At 5.25%, the Bank’s current policy rate is higher than the average policy rate of the last 330 years by some 50 basis points!
The Bank of England and the rest of us should not underestimate that the free fall in money (a measure of liquidity, that is) throughout 2023 will take its toll on the UK economy both in 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 (to say the least). Everything else equal, the free fall in money suggests, based on models of the UK economy, a quarter-on-quarter GDP drop of 0.2% to 0.3% for 2023Q4. This, in my view, opens the door for an interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.
Alstom job cuts not connected to HS2 decision, says PM
Rishi Sunak has denied that his decision to scrap the northern leg of the HS2 train line is to blame for possible huge job losses at the UK’s largest rail assembly factor.
On a visit to the East Midlands today, the prime minister said his sympathies go out to the 1,300+ workers at Alstom’s train factory in Derby, who have been told their jobs are at risk because of a lack of new orders.
Sunak said:
“I know that it will be an anxious time for them and the local teams on the ground are providing support and making sure that we’ve got a response in place to help all of those people and that’s happening.”
Alstom has been affected by uncertainty over an order for new trains for HS2, with The Times reporting that the order could be cut significantly from the original 54 high-speed trains.
But Sunak rejected claims that the scaling back of HS2 was to blame, saying today:
“With regard to the reasons for it, I don’t think it’s fair or accurate to characterise that decision by Alstom as a result of the decision on HS2.
“Alstom are actually providing the trains for phase one of HS2 and the issue that they have, as do other companies in that sector, is about their order books next year.
“The government has actually been in dialogue with them for several months about this issue, well before the decision on HS2 was made, and we’ve tried to find ways that we can bring forward other orders to support, for example, and so I don’t think it’s fair or accurate to characterise it as a result decision on HS2.
Updated
Take note, Jeremy Hunt.
Mark Dowding, BlueBay CIO at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, has warned of the risk of another bond market selloff – as we saw after last autumn’s mini-budget.
In a note to clients, Dowding says:
It seems increasingly likely that steps to cut taxes will be taken in an autumn Budget.
Should these occur, it will be interesting to see how the gilt market reacts and having witnessed a bond market tantrum last year, RBC BlueBay would not rule out a similar occurrence at some point in the future, if markets react with scepticism with respect to the government’s fiscal plans.
Today’s drop in UK bond yields will be welcomed in the Treasury, as it means the cost of issuing new debt (or rolling over maturing bonds) is falling.
It comes as Jeremy Hunt considers slashing the UK inheritance tax rate in next week’s autumn statement after economic forecasters told the chancellor he would have more money to spend thanks to rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.
Our political correspondent Kiran Stacey explains:
Hunt is weighing up big cuts to the tax people pay after inheriting wealth, paid for in part by better than expected government spending forecasts and by raising benefits by less than expected.
The chancellor had been expected to hold off from cutting taxes until next year as he and Rishi Sunak continue to focus on reducing inflation.
But after UK inflation fell further than expected last month and with Tory MPs clamouring for a pre-election giveaway, sources say the chancellor is open to the idea of doing it sooner.
Morgan Stanley are also warning that the UK is heading into recession, following this morning’s disappointing retail sales figures.
Their UK economist Bruna Skarica says it will be a mild recession, with rising real wages cushioning the impact of Bank of England interest rate rises:
We see a technical recession at the turn of the year. It is not a severe one – ~0.4% peak-to-trough – as improving real wage growth counters lagged impacts of BoE tightening.
Skarica says October’s retail sale report shows “fairly broad-based weakness”, explaining:
Food, clothing and furniture volumes all fell on the month, with particularly acute weakness in household goods sales.
Online sales volume ticked up a bit (0.8% in the month following a 2.3% monthly drop in September), so part of the overall miss might be to do with lower footfall due to the poor weather in the second half of the month.
But only a part. Zooming out, the three month/three month change in the volumes of retail sales is now at -1.1% – the consumer looks to be pulling back.
US government bonds are also rallying, pushing down the yield on 10-year Treasury bills to the lowest in two months, at 4.379%.
Investors are betting that the US Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates, after US inflation fell to 3.2% this week, US retail sales dipped, and jobless claims rose.
The drop in UK government bond yields today comes with “all the roads pointing to the Bank of England being ready to cut next year”, says Neil Wilson of Markets.com.
🇬🇧 UK Economic Update: Gilt Yields and Retail Sales!
— WallStreetholic (@WStreetholics) November 17, 2023
#UKEconomy #GiltYields #FinancialNews
📉 The UK's 10-year Gilt yield dives towards 4.0%, hitting its lowest since May 19th. October's unexpected retail sales decline signals slower economic growth. #MarketTrends… pic.twitter.com/V1QKoiG7bh
Bond yields fall as investors bet on rate cuts
UK government bond prices are rallying, as investors continue to bet that interest rates will be cut soon as recession fears build.
The rise in prices is pushing down the yield, or interest rate, on UK government debt – a sign that inflation is expected to ease.
The yield on 10-year gilts has fallen to 4.05% this morning, down from 4.15% last night, and the lowest level since 22 May.
This yield has fallen in the last month, from over 4.7% in mid-October.
UK 10 yr bond yield - new lows
— Trading Ideas (@TradingIdeas9) November 17, 2023
Yields in US and Europe has been falling on lower inflation figures and on expectation that the Central banks in US/Europe are done raising rates.$TNX $TLT pic.twitter.com/OAT2GGnsam
Shorter-dated UK bonds are also strengthening, pushing down the yield on two-year gilts. That should lead to a drop in fixed-term mortgage costs (which are priced off these yields).
The yield of UK Government Bonds continue to drop.
— Justin Waite (@SharePickers) November 17, 2023
UK 2 year, now at it lowest since 6th of June and about to cross down over 200 day moving average.
5 & 10 year bonds already below their 200ma.
Good for the markets. pic.twitter.com/glDw40IaaE
Updated
Full story: Fall in retail sales in Great Britain signals high street recession
Retailers in Great Britain suffered a slump in sales in October as the impact of high borrowing costs and rising prices signalled a high street recession in the run-up to Christmas.
Bad weather also played a part in a 2.7% year-on-year fall in retail sales that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said hit clothing and household goods stores the hardest.
Emphasising the severity of the downturn, the ONS said the month-on-month drop in October was 0.3%, much lower than the 0.3% rise economists polled by Reuters had forecast.
Figures for September were revised down to show sales dropped by 1.1% on the month, a sharper fall than the 0.9% first estimated. More here.
British Gas hiring 700 staff to help with winter heating pressures
British Gas is hiring over 700 new staff to join its customer service teams in Stockport, Leicester, Leeds, Edinburgh and Cardiff as the winter heating season begins, my colleague Jillian Ambrose reports.
The UK’s biggest energy supplier said the roles will be in place by the end of the year to help distribute its £100m support package for customers who are struggling to pay their bills.
Chris O’Shea, the chief executive of British Gas parent company Centrica, said many of its customers are still “struggling overall with the cost of living and need to speak to us for longer about their energy bills.”
British Gas is under pressure to prove that it has the best interests of its customers at heart after it emerged last winter that agents working on its behalf had broken into homes which were behind on their bills to fit pre-payment meters despite signs that young children and people with disabilities lived in the property.
Households can expect their energy bills to rise by 5% from January after analysts forecast a hike in the government’s energy price cap to an average of around £1,930 for the typical home.
Hopes that central bankers may have pushed interest rates to their peak are pushing stock markets higher today.
In London, the FTSE 100 index is 60 points higher, or 0.8%, at 7471 points, after a drop yesterday.
A drop in the oil price yesterday, to the lowest since July, is boosting hopes that inflation will continue to fall.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould says:
“The [FTSE 100] index was hurt by its big exposure to oil and gas yesterday as a big build in US inventories caused crude prices to plunge. The upside of this scenario is it further reduces inflationary pressures and underscores the idea that the rate hiking cycle has peaked.
“What’s helped in this regard is that Federal Reserve officials, while not exactly getting out the garlands and bunting and announcing a victory parade in the battle against inflation, are not really pushing back against the peak rates narrative either.”
New data from the ONS this morning also shows an easing in the cost of living squeeze, compared to a year ago (when inflation was peaking above 10%).
It found:
Around a half (52%) of adults reported that their cost of living had increased compared with a month ago. This is down from 77% a year ago (26 October to 6 November 2022).
Of those who reported their cost of living had increased compared to a month ago, 91% reported the price of their food shop had increased, 66% reported the price of their fuel had increased and 66% reported their gas or electricity bills had increased.
Around 4 in 10 (38%) adults who pay energy bills, reported it being very or somewhat difficult to afford them, down from 47% saying this in the period 26 October to 6 November 2022.
Here’s a chart that shows, starkly, the impact of food price inflation in the UK.
Compared with 2019, spending at food stores is up by around 22%.
But volumes of goods taken home by shoppers is 4% lower than four years ago.
Updated
Investec: A winter recession looks likely
The slide in retail sales volumes in October, to the lowest since February 2021, shows a genuine weakening underway in the economy, warns Sandra Horsfield, economist at Investec.
Horsfield says today’s retail sales report has revealed “a distinctly glum autumnal picture”, with volumes down 0.3% in October, and 2.7% lower than a year ago.
In a research note, Horsfield says the weather is one factor:
Weather effects from the particularly wet second half of the month are said to have played a role in reducing footfall, on the heels of what had been an unusually warm September and early October.
This may well not only have deterred purchases of autumn/winter clothing ranges but kept consumers out of shops more generally.
But, the cost-of-living squeeze in persuading consumers to tighten their purse strings too, she points out.
The downgrade to September’s retail sales report (showing a fall of 1.1%, not the 0.9% first estimated), is another blow.
It could mean that the UK’s third-quarter GDP report, which showed the economy stagnated, is revised lower…
Horsfield says:
Initial estimates had suggested the economy just about avoided a contraction (at least after rounding) in Q3, but with releases such as today’s, it is possible that this changes in subsequent releases of GDP statistics.
In any case, we remain of the view that a winter recession looks likely, as higher interest rates gradually feed through and take their toll on household and business finances. That said, we also continue to expect the downturn to be mild as a moderation in inflation should help support real purchasing power.
Specialist food and alcohol and tobacco stores hit by sales fall
Today’s retail sales report also shows that shoppers are shunning specialist food stores in favour of supermarkets, in the cost of living squeeze.
Supermarkets reported an increase in sales volumes of 0.2% in October, while specialist food stores such as butchers and bakers reported that sales volumes fell by 4.2%.
Alcohol and tobacco stores were hit by a 10.4% drop in sales volumes
Feedback from these retailers suggested that consumers were buying cheaper products and prioritising important items, the ONS says.
Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, says this is due to middle-income households being squeezed by rising mortgage costs.
The question at hand is are we saving up our cash, squirrelling it away in order to make the most of those big promotional days like Black Friday, or have price pressures pushed people to rethink Christmas plans entirely?
“What is particularly interesting is the food sector. Even here spending is down but it’s where that spend has fallen which alludes to the impact rising mortgage costs are having on middle income families.
“Supermarkets which offer value brands and own label deals maintained a bit of growth, but speciality stores like butchers and artisan bakers saw trade drop off.
“Little luxuries are an affordable ray of sunshine, but everyday sustenance is another thing entirely and it’s hard to justify an ancient grain loaf when a couple of slices from a pre-packaged one does the job at a fraction of the price.
“And posh alcohol makers like LVMH have already noted that sales have fallen away as drinkers plump for cheaper labels.
Updated
Mortgage arrears tick up at Nationwide
Elsewhere this morning, lender Nationwide has reported a rise in mortgage borrowers falling into arrears.
In its latest half-year report, Nationwide says that 0.38% of its residential mortgage accounts were at least three months in arrears at the end of September.
That’s up from 0.32% at the end of April.
Bank of England data earlier this month also showed a rise in arrears, as increases in interest rates left some borrowers unable to service their loans.
Nationwide says:
Arrears levels have increased slightly but remain low; however higher interest rates, continued inflationary pressures and the uncertain economic outlook remain key risks.
Nationwide (which recently launched a new ad campaign with Dominic West playing an unpleasant rival bank boss) also reports that its credit impairment charges have halved over the last year, to £54m, down from £108m in the first half of the 2022-23 financial year.
Nationwide’s CEO, Debbie Crosbie, warns that the economic outlook remains uncertain and cost of living challenges persist, adding:
Encouragingly, economic activity, while still weak by historical standards, has held up better than expected, and there are signs that cost of living pressures are starting to ease.
However, conditions for households are likely to remain challenging in the near term, as the effect of previous interest rate increases feeds through and labour market conditions soften.
Crosbie adds that UK interest rate are now “at or close to” their peak, adding:
As more households adjust their expenditure priorities in the higher interest rate environment, we will continue to support those borrowers who face payment difficulties.
A disappointing start to the Golden Quarter
The 2.7% year-on-year drop in retail sales across Britain in October is a disappointing start to the Golden Quarter.
The final three months of the year, which includes Halloween, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, as well as Diwali, Hanukkah and Christmas, is a crucial spending opportunity for retailers.
Samantha Phillips, Partner at McKinsey & Co. says:
“Consumers held onto the purse strings in October. Despite CPI inflation continuing to drop, it’s a disappointing start to the golden quarter which may reflect the generally low level of consumer sentiment.
It’s potentially also a sign of shoppers holding out for Black Friday bargains and other festive promotions.
“Despite possible opportunities for celebration from the Rugby World Cup and Halloween parties, there was a decline in food and drink volumes. While supermarkets have seen slight volume increases, which could be partly due to the slowing rate of grocery inflation, consumers held back from shopping for more expensive products from specialist stores.
The cost of living continues to bite, with wet weather in the second half of the month certainly not helping to drive shoppers to the high streets either.
So says Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, adding:
Consumers appear to be holding off from unnecessary spending, in savings mode, preparing for the expensive festive season ahead.
Looking ahead, according to analysis from GlobalData, shoppers are expected to buy fewer and cheaper items this Christmas, another headwind for retailers during the most important spending period of the year.
Retailers will be pinning their hopes on a successful Black Friday / Cyber Monday spending spree with big discounts likely to be on offer at a time when consumers are highly price sensitive.”
Automotive fuel sales volumes fell by 2.0%
Consumers also cut back on petrol and diesel last month, suggesting higher prices deterred people from making some journeys.
Today’s retail sales report shows that automotive fuel sales volumes fell by 2.0% in October.
In the three months to October, sales volumes fell by 0.7% when compared with the previous three months, which “may be affected by increasing fuel prices”, the ONS suggests.
Today’s retail sales slide comes just two days after we learned that inflation slowed during October, from 6.7% to 4.6%.
Despite much trumpeting about the government hitting its inflation pledge, it’s clear that households are still feeling the squeeze from higher prices.
Aled Patchett, head of retail and consumer goods at Lloyds Bank, says:
“The rising cost of living remains a drag on consumers’ discretionary incomes. Households continue to prioritise essential spending, particularly as falling winter temperatures push energy use up and high levels of inflation prevent material downturns in the prices of goods.
“Retailers will now be looking to strike the balance of getting staffing levels right while also being mindful that an early sales offering might not get the tills ringing as loudly as they’d like, as consumers navigate financial challenges elsewhere. Those that get it right could be toasting a successful end to what has been a challenging year.”
Phil Monkhouse, head of sales at global financial services firm Ebury, blames higher interest rates for the retail sales tumble in October, saying:
“The Bank of England’s attempts to whittle down inflation back to its target of 2% is perhaps finally feeding through into consumers’ pockets with this month’s data reinforcing September’s cliff-face drop [a 1.1% fall].”
Shoppers are turning a blind eye to Christmas festivities, he suspects, as they prioritise winter heating costs and mortgage repayments.
Updated
Today’s retail sales report also shows the painful impact of inflation over the last few years.
When compared with their pre-Covid-19 pandemic level in February 2020, total retail sales were 16.9% higher in value terms, but volumes were 3.1% lower.
In other worse, people have spent almost 17% more in October than in the last month before the first lockdown, but took home over 3% fewer items.
Updated
ONS: Poor month for household goods and clothes stores
October was “another poor month” for household goods stores and clothing retailers.
So explains Heather Bovill, deputy director for surveys and economic indicators at the Office for National Statistics.
Commenting on today’s retail sales figures for October, Heather Bovill Deputy Director for Surveys and Economic Indicators at the ONS said: (1/4) 💬⬇️ pic.twitter.com/71EkLaIkKU
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 17, 2023
Heather Bovill continued: (2/4) 💬⬇️ pic.twitter.com/s4agdYn6ld
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 17, 2023
Heather went on to explain: (3/4) 💬⬇️ pic.twitter.com/g9aEMURwWo
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 17, 2023
Heather concluded: (4/4) 💬⬇️
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 17, 2023
➡️ https://t.co/kdVkeib2AC pic.twitter.com/lnv3IU2Pi5
Introduction: British retail sales fall amid cost of living squeeze and bad weather
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Retail sales across Great Britain have dropped as consumers are hit by high borrowing costs and inflation, while bad weather drove shoppers away.
New data from the Office for National Statistics shows retail sales volumes fell by 0.3% in October, missing forecasts for a 0.3% rise – a warning sign for the UK economy.
That follows a revised 1.1% decline in September – worse than the 0.9% drop first estimated.
Retail sales volumes in October were at their lowest level since February 2021, during the Covid-19 pandemic, when there were “widespread and extensive restrictions to non-essential retail in England, Scotland and Wales”, the ONS reminds us.
On an annual basis, retail sales volumes slumped by 2.7% compared with October 2022. However, consumers had to spend 2.2% more than a year ago, to get less stuff, due to higher prices on the shelves.
Retail sales fell 0.3% in October 2023, following a fall of 1.1% in September.
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 17, 2023
When we look more broadly, sales fell 1.1% in the three months to October when compared with the previous three months.
➡️ https://t.co/kdVkeib2AC pic.twitter.com/Lr0o9RIodG
The ONS reports that food stores sales volumes fell by 0.3% in October.
Non-food stores sales volumes fell by 0.2% in October 2023, with retailers suggesting that “cost of living, reduced footfall and the wet weather in the second half of the month contributed to the fall”.
Storm Babet brought heavy rain and strong winds to the UK in October, followed by Ciarán at the end of the month.
Online retailers saw a 0.8% rise in sales volumes (after a fall of 2.4% in September), suggesting shoppers turn to the internet rather than braving the blusterly outdoors.
This slowdown in demand highlights how high interest rates are hitting the economy, and could fuel concerns that the UK is teetering close to recession.
Yesterday, BoE policymaker Megan Greene said it was too early to think about rate cuts, and that borrowing costs will need to remain higher for longer to control inflation.
Also coming up today
The clock is ticking towards next week’s autumn statement, and we’re already getting hints about what Jeremy Hunt will announce.
The chancellor will target the decline in workforce participation, by depriving benefits from welfare claimants who “refuse” to engage with their jobcentre or take work offered to them.
Hunt’s also reportedly considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax.
Hunt may have some leeway for giveaways, due to improved public finances, and as the freeze in income tax thresholds drags more people into higher tax bands.
In the financial markets, investors are watching the oil price after it hit a four-month low last night.
Brent crude dropped $3.76, or 4.6%, to $77.42 a barrel, amid worries about global oil demand following weak economic data – including rising jobless claims and falling retail sales in the US.
The agenda
7am GMT: UK retail sales for October
8.30am GMT: European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde gives keynote speech at 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress
10am GMT: Eurozone inflation report (final estimate) for October
1.10pm GMT: Bank of England deputy governor )Dave Ramsden gives keynote speech at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference
1.30pm GMT: US housing starts and building permits data for October
