The shock announcement that four Victorian senior ministers will resign at the next state election has resulted in a significant shake-up of the government's front bench and shed light on the future of Victorian Labor — including who will succeed Premier Daniel Andrews.
Yesterday, Deputy Premier and Education Minister James Merlino, Health Minister Martin Foley, Police Minister Lisa Neville and Sports Minister Martin Pakula announced they would serve on the backbench until they leave parliament in November.
Mr Andrews has put forward Transport Infrastructure Minister Jacinta Allan as his pick to replace Mr Merlino as his deputy.
Her appointment will not be confirmed until after the Labor Caucus meets at 10am today, but she has the surprise support of heavyweights from the opposing faction and is seen as the natural candidate for the job.
Paul Strangio, professor of politics at Monash University, said the deputy role would place Ms Allan as the successor to Mr Andrews when he eventually gives up the top job.
Meanwhile, Mr Andrews also announced on Friday that Mary-Anne Thomas, Lily D'Ambrosio, Danny Pearson, Ben Carroll and Natalie Hutchins would be made coordinating ministers of various departments. These positions are determined by the Premier.
Allan's faction makes her an unconventional choice
Labor party tradition is that the deputy premier hails from a different faction to the premier.
Ms Allan is from the socialist left — the same faction as Mr Andrews.
Despite this, Treasurer Tim Pallas — a member of the right faction — said he backed Ms Allan's appointment.
Outgoing minister Lisa Neville, who belongs to Labor's right, told ABC Radio Melbourne that it would not be the first time the deputy and the premier came from the same faction.
"It's not abnormal at all to have that situation," she said on Friday.
She said she was sure there would be "factional dealings" happening before the caucus meeting, but put her support behind Ms Allan.
"I think Jacinta is absolutely deserving of that job, will be fantastic in that role," she said.
"She was the obvious choice."
Mr Andrews also attempted to dispel any criticisms, saying the Brumby and Bracks governments also went against convention.
"Let's not play these sorts of games," he said.
"I'm very confident, just as my senior leadership team colleagues are very confident, that the caucus will make the right decision."
Before Friday's announcement, Roads Minister Ben Carroll was seen as a leading contender for the deputy minister position, as a rising star of the right.
Kos Samaras, who was the campaign director of Victorian Labor for 14 years, told ABC Radio Melbourne that Ms Allan's likely appointment to the deputy role as a member of the same faction as the premier was "more the exception than the norm".
He said others had expressed interest in the role, but decided not to follow through with their nominations.
Cabinet shake-up unlikely to affect election outcome
The Labor party has been in government for the past eight years, and is now pushing for another four at the state election to be held on November 26 this year.
Professor Strangio said who runs which ministry is unlikely to mean much to the public.
Mr Samaras said voters would probably see the change as "normal".
"Most voters out there, based on research that we do across the country, could not name more than two or three individuals from any given government," he said.
He said Labor and Liberals may lose seats to "Teal" independents and Greens, but predicted Labor would win the election.
"But we are five months' out, so it's still early days," he said.
Pandemic burnout may have influenced resignations
Mr Foley and Mr Merlino mentioned wanting to spend more time with their families as playing a role in their decisions to resign, while Ms Neville spoke of her health issues. She took a break from parliament last year as she battled Crohn's disease.
"I couldn't keep going at the pace I was," she said on Friday.
Meanwhile, Mr Pakula said politics had taken its toll on him personally and on his family.
"I love government, but I don't love politics as much as I once did," he said.
All four ministers also had the arduous task of steering Victoria through more lockdowns than any other Australian jurisdiction experienced.
Professor Strangio said pandemic burnout "undoubtedly" would have played a role in the ministers' decisions to resign.
"Ministerial responsibilities are onerous, they're taxing, they're incessant," he said.
