Christmas break isn’t quite the halfway point in the men’s college basketball season, but it does function as the All-Star break does in pro sports: a midseason reset for teams before the stretch run. Several conferences have played one or two conference games in December, but post-Christmas teams shift into league play for good. These games will shape NCAA tournament bubble and seeding discussions all the way through Selection Sunday.
All that makes this period the perfect time to reset Sports Illustrated’s preseason conference championship picks. Which preseason favorites are still holding strong, and which ones look vulnerable? Here’s a rundown of where things stand in the six high-major leagues.
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ACC
Preseason Pick: Duke Blue Devils
Updated Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels
Duke has quieted some concerns about its early-season struggles after beating Baylor at Madison Square Garden before Christmas, but the Blue Devils still look more vulnerable than they did in the preseason. Even before Tyrese Proctor’s ankle injury, Duke had been somewhat underwhelming, lacking wing scoring and depth. That combined with Proctor not making quite the jump expected of him make this Duke team beatable, though they do still have talented young guards and one of the best players in the country in Kyle Filipowski.
North Carolina, on the other hand, is slightly better than expected. A big reason for that has been the growth of senior RJ Davis, who has flourished playing off the ball to blossom into one of the nation’s best guards. Transfer adds Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram have added low-maintenance floor spacing and high-IQ play, and Armando Bacot is still a force to be reckoned with on the glass. This race should be interesting: The Clemson Tigers and Virginia Cavaliers could make a push, and a dark horse like the Wake Forest Demon Deacons could emerge, but I’m taking the Tar Heels.
Big 12
Preseason Pick: Kansas Jayhawks
Updated Pick: Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas wasn’t just No. 1 in the Big 12 in our preseason rankings—the Jayhawks topped SI’s national rankings. Based on only its wins and losses, Kansas has lived up to the hype, with monster wins over the Kentucky Wildcats, Tennessee Volunteers and UConn Huskies, and only one loss against the Marquette Golden Eagles. Aesthetically, though, KU hasn’t always looked the part, stumbling through games against overmatched competition and showing some limitations offensively due to a lack of shot creation and floor-spacing. As a result, the Jayhawks have fallen to No. 16 nationally on KenPom (fourth in the Big 12) and at least look vulnerable.
Who could top them? The Houston Cougars have certainly passed the eye test, dominating on the defensive end against a weaker nonconference slate and featuring outstanding guard play from the likes of LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead. The Iowa State Cyclones and BYU Cougars are analytics darlings with somewhat underwhelming résumés to date. The Baylor Bears certainly have the talent thanks to freshmen Ja’Kobe Walter and Yves Missi but left us wanting more against the Michigan State Spartans and Duke earlier this month. This is a “trust Bill Self” selection as much as anything, but I’ll stick with the Jayhawks finding a way in this wide-open league.
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Big East
Preseason Pick: UConn Huskies
Updated Pick: Marquette Golden Eagles
Big East conference play is off to a chaotic start, with several surprising losses and one key injury that have shaken up the league race early on. The three favorites to win the league in the preseason (UConn, Marquette and the Creighton Bluejays) each lost their first league game, while a pair of dark horses in the Providence Friars and Villanova Wildcats each are off to a 2–0 start. Plus, UConn star big man Donovan Clingan will be sidelined for much of January with a foot injury, the second time he has missed time due to foot ailments this season. All that makes assessing this league race quite the challenge as we approach the New Year.
The safe choice is Marquette. The Golden Eagles’ loss at Providence can easily be chalked up to the Friars’ home dominance (Providence is 46–3 in its last 49 home games), and Marquette has a veteran core that claimed the Big East crown last season. Shaka Smart could really use one of his role players to step up and take some heat off Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones and Oso Ighodaro, though. UConn will be right there, but Clingan’s injury does lower their ceiling, and an untimely loss or two in January without him could cost the defending national champs the conference title. Meanwhile, Creighton at its best is still a strong choice, but the Bluejays have proved to be too reliant on the three to be trusted across a 20-game sample. Villanova has a schedule set up well for a potential 5–0 start. … could the Wildcats run away and hide while the favorites clean things up? This race will be fascinating.
Big Ten
Preseason Pick: Purdue Boilermakers
Updated Pick: Purdue Boilermakers
Outside of an overtime road loss to the Northwestern Wildcats, the Boilermakers have been unblemished thus far despite a grueling schedule that has featured neutral court games against the Gonzaga Bulldogs, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama Crimson Tide and Arizona Wildcats. There’s a strong case to be made that this year’s Purdue team looks better than last year’s, which ran away with the Big Ten title by three games. Sophomore point guard Braden Smith has made huge strides to become a far more potent offensive weapon in ball screens, while fellow sophomore Fletcher Loyer has delivered massive performances in some of Purdue’s biggest games this season. There will inevitably be a few slip ups on the road in league play, but it’s hard to imagine anyone being able to match the Boilermakers’ punch-for-punch across a 20-game league season.
The team with the best chance to usurp Purdue is probably the Illinois Fighting Illini, who climbed into the top 10 of KenPom’s national rankings after a monster December. The Illini have answered preseason questions about their point guard play and have been dominant defensively. Additionally, guard Terrence Shannon Jr. is playing like an All-American. Illinois restarts Big Ten play after the New Year with three huge tests: Northwestern at home, Purdue on the road and Michigan State at home. We’ll learn early whether Illinois is a legitimate challenger.
Pac-12
Preseason Pick: Arizona Wildcats
Updated Pick: Arizona Wildcats
Arizona has come back down to Earth some after soaring to an 8–0 start, but it still looks like a clear favorite in the final year of the Pac-12. Other top preseason contenders USC and UCLA have each slumped early on, with the Trojans just 6–5 and the Bruins even worse off at 5–6 with a ghastly loss to the Cal State Northridge Matadors. While both teams have the time to right the ship and get to the NCAA tournament, it’s hard to envision them pushing Arizona for the conference crown. The Colorado Buffaloes are the second-best team in the league as of today but can’t match Arizona talent-wise across a long conference season.
The Wildcats just have too many weapons. North Carolina transfer Caleb Love is still a bit enigmatic, but has been far more consistent in Tucson than he was with the Tar Heels, while San Diego State Aztecs import Keshad Johnson has also had a monster year. Arizona is physical and deep in the backcourt on the defensive end, has overpowering size and rebounding power on the inside and has by far its best defensive team overall under Tommy Lloyd. This is a legitimate national title contender.
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SEC
Preseason Pick: Tennessee Volunteers
Updated Pick: Kentucky Wildcats
The SEC’s strong offseason in the transfer portal has translated to wins on the hardwood, with three teams in KenPom’s top 10 and seven in the site’s top 33 teams. Tennessee has done little to lose its preseason standing as the league’s top dog, with wins over Illinois and the Wisconsin Badgers to boost its résumé and has looked much improved offensively thanks to the addition of Northern Colorado Bears transfer Dalton Knecht.
All this makes the Vols still probably the safe choice to win the league’s regular-season crown, but no team from the SEC is more impressive at its best than Kentucky. The Wildcats pass every eye test imaginable, playing a fast, exciting brand of basketball with multiple ballhandlers capable of creating opportunities for themselves and others on the floor at all times. They’ve shot the three at a high level, taken care of the ball as well as anyone in the country and all in all not looked like a team with more freshmen in its rotation than anyone in high-major basketball. Perhaps their youth will come back to bite them enough times in league play to prevent them from winning the league crown, but the Wildcats have the most March upside of any team in this league.
