Republican Senate contenders are falling behind Donald Trump in voter polling, vexing GOP leaders who had thought that aspiring senators would catch up to the party’s presidential candidate.
In Ohio, Trump is polling at an average of 8.7 percentage points above the Republican Senate nominee Bernie Moreno, RealClear Politics averages suggest. In Wisconsin, Trump has polled 2.2 points ahead of the Senate candidate Eric Hovde; they also both remain under 50% in the polls.
In Arizona, Trump is at 49.3% compared with Kari Lake’s 43.4%. In Nevada, Sam Brown is at 40.7% while Trump has 47.6%.
Meanwhile, Democratic Senate contenders are still besting Republican candidates in “every key battleground” in the presidential race, per the Cook Political report. But the site noted that their leads were tighter than in August, and that Wisconsin and Michigan Senate races could be prime opportunities for Republicans.
Polling has even prompted concerns over the US Senate race in deep-red Texas. Texas’s Senate race has shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican”, suggesting that the Democratic representative Colin Allred might be gaining steam against the GOP incumbent Ted Cruz, the Hill reported.
Some data still indicates that Republicans have a strong chance of landing a Senate majority. They could potentially win simply by ousting Montana’s Democratic senator Jon Tester, per the website.
The polling nonetheless marks a dramatic shift for GOP senators, who just weeks ago had privately told mega-donors that the Senate was all but guaranteed for them, per Axios. Their optimistic speculation that the party would land 52 Senate seats came as top Republicans implored donors to contribute to cover funding gaps in several battleground states.
The situation is flipped in Maryland, a heavily Democratic state where former governor Larry Hogan has outpaced Trump by almost 30 points in the polls. Hogan has built a wall between himself and the former president, notably rebuffing his endorsement, Axios points out, citing the Real Clear Politics data.
For Democrats, it’s the opposite. Kamala Harris reportedly lags behind the Democratic Senate candidate in four of five battleground states.
The polling gap between presidential and Senate candidates is slimmer than Trump’s, about one or two points, as Harris’s split marks an improvement over Joe Biden’s. Harris is showing a one-point advantage over Elissa Slotkin, representative from Michigan, Axios said.
This new polling is among a mountain of data indicating that the presidential election remains a near toss-up. Harris had secured a four-point lead over Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to New York Times and Siena College polls conducted from 5 August to 9 August.
But data from New York Times and Siena College from surveys between 21 and 26 September reveal that Harris’s lead has slimmed. In Michigan, Harris and Trump are respectively polling at 48% and 47%, “well within the poll’s margin of error”, according to the Times.
The polling is even more striking in Wisconsin. While Harris has 49% compared with Trump’s 48%, the newspaper notes that Wisconsin polling has “a history of overstating support for Democrats”.
There is potentially good news for Harris from Nebraska’s second congressional district. There, Harris is besting Trump by eight percentage points.
The district’s only electoral vote might prove crucial in the electoral college for a Harris victory. Should Harris win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, this district could deliver the 270 electoral college votes she needs if Trump wins key Sun belt contests, per the Times.
This polling comes just before Tuesday night’s vice-presidential debate has raised still more questions about the race’s trajectory. Unlike the Trump-Harris face-off, which featured the ex-president’s characteristically brash behavior, JD Vance and Tim Walz focused on policy and remained civil.
Some believe that Vance outperformed Walz, and vice versa, while others believed there was no clear winner.
